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UIW

Incarnate Word 42 at Texas State 34

TXST
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUIW aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUIW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:19 · Keven Nguyen punt for 37 yds , Chandler Speights returns for no gain to the TexSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:47: Marcus Cooper run for 9 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK) — UIW win probability +12.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:35: Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 14 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK) — UIW win probability +23.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:17: Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +23.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:07: Cameron Ward pass complete to Darion Chafin for 8 yds for a TD — UIW win probability +32.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:48: Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 1 yd for a TD (John Scifers KICK) — UIW win probability +16.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UIW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UIW made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:19UIW 4th & 13 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33TXST 4th & 6 at UIW 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01UIW 4th & 8 at TXST 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:09TXST 4th & 6 at UIW 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:32TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:55UIW 4th & 21 at UIW 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−4.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:35TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.2%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:00UIW 4th & 18 at UIW 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−5.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:55TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:19TXST 4th & 2 at UIW 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UIW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:32TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:19UIW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:01UIW Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:51TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:47UIW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:03TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:35UIW Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:17TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:48UIW Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UIWDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4124% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.4%
PENALTY UIW False Start (Johnson,Caleb) 5 yards from UIW25 to UIW20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
76.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Trevor Begue for 8 yds to the InWrd 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
76.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Darion Chafin for 25 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
76.4%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Darion ChafinSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
76.4%
Kevin Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
50
0
76.4%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Taylor GrimesSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 13
50
0
76.0%
Keven Nguyen punt for 37 yds , Chandler Speights returns for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5176% → 76%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
76.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 15 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
76.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 7 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 34
-10
76.1%
Hill,Calvin rush for 8 yards gain to the TXS42 (Richard,Brandon) PENALTY TXS Holding (Dobson,Liam) 10 yards from TXS34 to TXS24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
76.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+5
75.9%
PENALTY UIW Offside (Bowen,Brandon) 5 yards from TXS24 to TXS29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
75.9%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
75.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5676% → 77%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
76.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
76.0%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the InWrd 29Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+23
75.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Seth Caillouet for 23 yds to the InWrd 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
76.0%
PENALTY UIW Illegal Substitution (Richard,Brandon) 3 yards from UIW06 to UIW03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.0%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the InWrd 1Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 4TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:1323% → 27%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.6%
Kevin Brown run for 1 yd to the InWrd 24Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
76.6%
PENALTY TXS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hayes,DeMarrquese) 15 yards from UIW24 to UIW39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
76.4%
Kevin Brown run for 1 yd to the InWrd 38Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
76.5%
Kevin Brown run for 2 yds to the InWrd 40Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+11
76.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
76.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Trevor Begue for 15 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
76.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 33 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+4
76.0%
Kevin Brown run for 4 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.1%
Kevin Brown run for 5 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3775% → 74%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
74.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
74.9%
Brady McBride run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
74.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 9 yds to the InWrd 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
74.9%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the InWrd 39Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
75.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+1
74.8%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the InWrd 40Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+3
73.8%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the InWrd 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 6TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:3227% → 34%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
73.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 6 yds to the InWrd 43Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+22
72.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Roger McCuller for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Targeting (DeJordan Mask) to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.1%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
72.1%
Marcus Cooper run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
72.5%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Darion ChafinSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+11
72.1%
Cameron Ward run for 11 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
70.7%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-10
70.9%
Ferrel,Robert rush for 0 yards to the TXS22 (Johnson,Drake), out of bounds PENALTY UIW Holding (McCuller,Roger) 10 yards from TXS22 to TXS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+32
66.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 32 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 7:0467% → 74%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
67.3%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+9
66.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 9 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
67.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
66.8%
Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
67.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 7 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.8%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
68.1%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+22
67.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 22 yds to the InWrd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
67.7%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the InWrd 29Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+17
66.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for 17 yds to the InWrd 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
67.7%
Brady McBride sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the InWrd 18Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+10
67.3%
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds to the InWrd 8Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+6
66.9%
Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the InWrd 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.7%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the InWrd 1Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 8FUMBLE
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4230% → 36%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.6%
Kevin Brown run for 7 yds to the InWrd 32Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
68.4%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+23
69.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 23 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
67.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 13 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.9%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Robert FerrelSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
65.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Cj Hardy for 9 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+14
66.0%
Marcus Cooper run for 14 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
65.2%
Marcus Cooper run for 6 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to for 3 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:0071% → 73%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
71.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 9 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
72.5%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
71.6%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+5
73.0%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
73.1%
PENALTY TXS Illegal Snap (Fletcher,Charles) 5 yards from TXS46 to TXS41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+16
71.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 16 yds to the InWrd 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
73.5%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the InWrd 40Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+20
73.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds to the InWrd 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
74.3%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the InWrd 15Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
74.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-1
73.4%
Brady McBride sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the InWrd 16Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
73.4%
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 10INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:4425% → 28%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
75.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 10 yds to the InWrd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.8%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Kevin BrownSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
74.3%
Rashon Davis run for 13 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.3%
Cameron Ward pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:2573% → 74%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
72.9%
Calvin Hill run for 15 yds to the InWrd 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
74.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
74.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2872% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.5%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
71.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
70.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 12 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
71.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the InWrd 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 13TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4529% → 45%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+26
71.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Trevor Begue for 26 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
68.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 13 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
67.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Trevor Begue for 17 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
67.0%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Trevor BegueSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
67.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 9 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
54.7%
Marcus Cooper run for 9 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4459% → 75%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.8%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
61.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 19 yds to the InWrd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
62.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 18 yds to the InWrd 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
64.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 10 yds to the InWrd 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
64.3%
Jeter,Jahmyl rush for 5 yards gain to the UIW15 (Lucas,Terrell; Jones,Akil) PENALTY TXS Holding (Fletcher,Charles) 10 yards from UIW20 to UIW30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+11
63.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 11 yds to the InWrd 19Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+11
64.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 11 yds to the InWrd 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
64.3%
Jeter,Jahmyl rush for 1 yard gain to the UIW07 (Hoover,Blaine; Jones,Akil) PENALTY TXS Holding (Cooper,Dalton) 10 yards from UIW08 to UIW18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
64.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
74.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 18 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:0330% → 28%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
70.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 11 yds to the InWrd 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
69.7%
Cameron Ward run for 8 yds to the InWrd 20Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 18
OWN 20
0
70.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Darion ChafinSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 18
OWN 20
-5
71.8%
PENALTY UIW False Start (Johnson,Caleb) 5 yards from UIW20 to UIW15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 23
OWN 15
+2
71.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 2 yds to the InWrd 17Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
72.5%
Keven Nguyen punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 16TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:2034% → 59%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
66.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
66.0%
Marcus Cooper run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+7
66.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 7 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.0%
Marcus Cooper run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
66.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Parker Floyd for 13 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
64.3%
Marcus Cooper run for 4 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
64.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 5 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+14
41.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 14 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:1850% → 78%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.5%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
49.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
47.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 9 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
49.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
51.9%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the InWrd 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
52.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the InWrd 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
52.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 3 yds to the InWrd 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
52.8%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the InWrd 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
54.8%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the InWrd 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
54.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 11 yds to the InWrd 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
54.8%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the InWrd 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
54.8%
INCARNATEW Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (7 Yards) to the InWrd 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.8%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the InWrd 4Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5934% → 27%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
50
0
65.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Marcus CooperSimilar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
50
-8
67.2%
Cameron Ward sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 8 yards to the InWrd 42 Cameron Ward fumbled, recovered by InWrd Nash Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 18
OWN 42
0
71.2%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Robert FerrelSimilar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
72.7%
Keven Nguyen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chandler Speights at the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:3474% → 76%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
74.3%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
75.8%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 20TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1937% → 70%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.1%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Taylor GrimesSimilar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
63.3%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Robert FerrelSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
65.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 10 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
62.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
62.6%
Marcus Cooper run for 8 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
62.6%
Cameron Ward pass incomplete to Taylor GrimesSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
29.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Darion Chafin for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1241% → 34%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
41.6%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
38.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the InWrd 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 22TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:0772% → 94%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
27.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 7 yds to the InWrd 39Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+28
25.7%
Marcus Cooper run for 28 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
23.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 9 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+1
22.8%
Marcus Cooper run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
22.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 22 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Taylor Grimes for 1 yd for a TD (John Scifers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 1:508% → 11%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.5%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
8.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+9
8.6%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the InWrd 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
9.5%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the InWrd 43Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
9.4%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+6
8.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the InWrd 37Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+6
5.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 6 yds to the InWrd 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
7.5%
Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the InWrd 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
10.7%
Seth Keller 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UIWDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
3.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-2
2.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:07
Cameron Ward pass complete to Darion Chafin for 8 yds for a TD
-32.9
TD · Q3 1:35
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 14 yds for a TD (John Scifers KICK)
-23.2
TD · Q4 11:17
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
+23.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com