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ALCN

Alcorn State 21 at South Alabama 28

USA
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:08 · Jack Brooks punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+38.1Home team on offense+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:49: Javonta Leatherwood run for 1 yd for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK) — ALCN win probability +11.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:12: Kareem Walker run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +8.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:27: Kareem Walker run for 35 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:37: Bryan Hill run for 11 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +6.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:19: Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK) — ALCN win probability +11.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ALCN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:29ALCN 4th & 7 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08USA 4th & 10 at USA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:11USA 4th & 1 at ALCN 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:02ALCN 4th & 10 at USA 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:42USA 4th & 9 at USA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30ALCN 4th & 1 at ALCN 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:50ALCN 4th & 16 at USA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32USA 4th & 1 at ALCN 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:35ALCN 4th & 13 at ALCN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:33ALCN 4th & 9 at ALCN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:43ALCN 4th & 2 at ALCN 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:43ALCN 4th & 3 at USA 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:15USA 4th & 1 at ALCN 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−3.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36ALCN 4th & 14 at USA 17, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.7 ptsWent for it · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%−4.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−9.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:08USA 4th & 11 at USA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALCN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:11USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:49ALCN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:12USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:27USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:37USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:19ALCN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALCNDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:319% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.3%
Felix Harper pass complete to Tim McNair Jr. for 3 yds to the AlcSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
91.3%
Felix Harper pass complete to Tim McNair Jr. for 10 yds to the AlcSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.3%
Niko Duffey run for no gain to the AlcSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
91.3%
Felix Harper run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
91.3%
Felix Harper run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
91.3%
Niko Duffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Felix Harper sacked by Gi'Narious Johnson for 0 yards to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+15
91.3%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 15 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
91.3%
ALCORN ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Felix Harper) to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
89.8%
Robens Beauplan punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2190% → 89%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Jake Bentley run for no gain to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
89.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2611% → 11%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
89.2%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 6 yds to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
89.0%
Jonathon Bolton run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 3
OWN 40
-5
89.3%
ALCORN ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Robens Beauplan) to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
89.0%
punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4DOWNS TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:3189% → 89%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.9%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
88.8%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+6
88.8%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+9
88.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 9 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.1%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+40
89.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds to the AlcSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
89.3%
Kareem Walker run for 6 yds to the AlcSt 11Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
89.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+7
89.2%
Kareem Walker run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
89.3%
WALKER, Kareem rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ALC1 (KINSLER, Keyron). PENALTY Before the snap, ALC Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the ALC4 to the ALC2. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.3%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the AlcSt 2Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.3%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 1Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.9%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the AlcSt 1Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.3%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0911% → 11%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.3%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+54
89.4%
Felix Harper pass complete to CJ Bolar for 54 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
88.4%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
88.5%
HARPER, Felix pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOLAR, CJ thrown to the USA0. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on FLENORD, Davyn enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the USA5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.4%
Manny Jones run for no gain to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.4%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.7%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
89.0%
THOMPSON, Cristofer field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at USA12], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, ALC Delay Of Game enforced 5 yards from the USA5 to the USA10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
88.8%
Cristofer Thompson 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1889% → 88%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
89.0%
Terrion Avery run for 12 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
89.0%
WALKER, Kareem rush up the middle for a gain of 32 yards to the ALC36 (WISE, Solomon;MARTIN, Tyreic). PENALTY USA Holding on BAKER, Ja'Chai enforced 10 yards from the USA32 to the USA22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+15
88.9%
BENTLEY, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for WAYNE, Jalen thrown to the ALC46. PENALTY ALC Pass Interference on JORDAN, Skylar enforced 15 yards to the USA37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
89.1%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
89.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
88.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Manny Jones at the AlcSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:1211% → 12%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.6%
Niko Duffey run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 23Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
88.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 7 yds to the AlcSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
88.4%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 6 yds to the AlcSt 36Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
88.1%
Niko Duffey run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 38Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
88.1%
Niko Duffey run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Robens Beauplan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0789% → 89%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.0%
Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
88.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
88.3%
ALCORN ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
88.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 14 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:3313% → 18%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.3%
Felix Harper sacked by Shawn Jennings for 0 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+4
88.0%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
88.2%
Felix Harper sacked by Wy'Kevious Thomas and Jamall Hickbottom for 0 yards to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 16
OPP 44
0
82.1%
Robens Beauplan punt for 44 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4483% → 83%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
83.1%
Kareem Walker run for 7 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+10
83.3%
Kareem Walker run for 10 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
83.3%
Bryan Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+20
83.0%
Bryan Hill run for 20 yds to the AlcSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
84.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 3 yds to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
84.5%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+7
83.1%
Jake Bentley run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 11TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:5921% → 33%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
79.2%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+38
79.2%
Felix Harper pass complete to CJ Bolar for 38 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
76.8%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
77.1%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 2 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+20
77.9%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 20 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.0%
Javonta Leatherwood run for 1 yd for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:1773% → 76%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
74.6%
BENTLEY, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Jalen thrown to the USA31. PENALTY ALC Offsides on DAWSON, Devin enforced 5 yards from the USA33 to the USA38 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.7%
Jake Bentley run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Cade Sutherland for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+14
73.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the AlcSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.4%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
75.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Kareem Walker for 8 yds to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
74.5%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 36Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
75.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
70.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AlcSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:4370% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
69.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 16 yds to the AlcSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
70.9%
Kareem Walker run for 18 yds to the AlcSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
72.0%
Caullin Lacy run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 16Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+1
72.0%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
72.0%
Kareem Walker run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 13Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
80.8%
Kareem Walker run for 13 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3225% → 24%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
75.2%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
75.5%
Felix Harper sacked by Charles Coleman III for 0 yards to the AlcSt 12Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+3
76.4%
Niko Duffey run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 15Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
76.3%
Robens Beauplan punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
87.4%
Kareem Walker run for 35 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4915% → 14%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
84.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 5 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+9
84.0%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 9 yds to the AlcSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
83.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 1 yd to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
83.7%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
83.9%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+7
85.9%
Robens Beauplan punt for 39 yds , Cade Sutherland returns for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:5686% → 94%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
85.9%
Kareem Walker run for 5 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+11
86.2%
Kareem Walker run for 11 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
86.7%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+16
85.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Hill for 16 yds to the AlcSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
87.5%
Bryan Hill run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 33Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
87.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 7 yds to the AlcSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
87.8%
HILL, Bryan rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the ALC21 (TAYLOR, Juwan;KINSLER, Keyron). PENALTY Before the snap, ALC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ALC26 to the ALC21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 5
OPP 21
+9
87.8%
Kareem Walker run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
87.8%
Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 11Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
94.2%
Bryan Hill run for 11 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:457% → 7%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.0%
Niko Duffey run for no gain to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+8
93.3%
Felix Harper run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+1
93.0%
Robens Beauplan punt for 37 yds , Cade Sutherland returns for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 20TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:249% → 19%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
91.5%
Jonathon Bolton run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
91.3%
Jonathon Bolton run for 2 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
91.8%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+13
92.0%
Felix Harper pass complete to CJ Bolar for 13 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
92.6%
Jonathon Bolton run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
92.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to Niko Duffey for 6 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.9%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:0489% → 90%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
89.3%
Kareem Walker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.1%
Bryan Hill run for 7 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+8
90.1%
Bryan Hill run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.6%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
90.4%
Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+5
89.6%
ALCORN ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the AlcSt 40Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-10
89.9%
HILL, Bryan rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the ALC38 (WISE, Solomon). PENALTY USA Holding on BAKER, Ja'Chai enforced 10 yards from the ALC40 to the USA50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 14
50
+13
89.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 13 yds to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
89.5%
Bryan Hill run for no gain to the AlcSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:3315% → 10%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
84.9%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 27 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
82.5%
Jonathon Bolton run for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+10
80.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to LeCharles Pringle for 10 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
80.6%
Jonathon Bolton run for 4 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
80.4%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+6
84.4%
Felix Harper pass complete to CJ Bolar for 6 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
82.9%
Niko Duffey run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+5
83.8%
HARPER, Felix pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOLAR, CJ thrown to the USA0. PENALTY USA Offsides on COLEMAN III, Charles enforced 5 yards from the USA16 to the USA11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-10
82.9%
HARPER, Felix pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Manny broken up by ROCKETTE, Devin at the USA0. PENALTY ALC Holding on YARBROUGH, T.J. enforced 10 yards from the USA11 to the USA21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 18
OPP 21
0
84.8%
Felix Harper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+4
86.7%
Niko Duffey run for 4 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+10
90.1%
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 10 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2896% → 96%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
95.6%
Kareem Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 6Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 11
OWN 6
0
95.5%
Kareem Walker run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
95.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 11
OWN 6
+23
96.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds , Manny Jones returns for 23 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 24INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 10%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
86.6%
Felix Harper pass complete to CJ Bolar for 17 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
86.0%
ALCORN ST Penalty, False Start (CJ Bolar) to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-1
87.7%
Jonathon Bolton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+3
88.5%
Felix Harper run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 13
OPP 15
0
89.7%
Felix Harper pass intercepted, touchback. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:19
Felix Harper pass complete to Juan Anthony Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q3 10:27
Kareem Walker run for 35 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 1:49
Javonta Leatherwood run for 1 yd for a TD (Cristofer Thompson KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com