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BUF

Buffalo 3 at Ball State 20

BALL
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2021 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-2.1BALL 74.5%Alex McNulty 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 11:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:43 · Alex McNulty 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense+4.6Pregame prior+12.8Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:44: Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +3.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:22: Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +4.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 3:18: Jackson Baltar punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 25 — BALL win probability +3.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:36: Jacob Lewis 35 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:12: Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 12BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:58BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:58BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:44BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:15BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:43BUF 4th & 10 at BALL 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:39BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:33BALL 4th & 22 at BUF 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:33BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:18BUF 4th & 9 at BALL 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:36BALL 4th & 8 at BUF 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:11BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32BALL 4th & 2 at BUF 47, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:30BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:12BALL 4th & 16 at BUF 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:14BUF 4th & 20 at BUF 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:08BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:21BALL 4th & 8 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:53BALL 4th & 4 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:19BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 3, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:44BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:22BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:0268% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
68.4%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
68.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 28Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3532% → 33%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
68.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
68.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
68.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
68.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
68.2%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
67.4%
Matt Myers pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
67.4%
Matt Myers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:3968% → 71%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
68.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
68.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
68.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+10
68.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 10 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
68.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
68.4%
Hall,Justin rush for 5 yards gain to the BUF15 (Patterson,James) PENALTY BUF Offside (Williams,Daymond) 5 yards from BUF20 to BUF15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+6
68.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
68.4%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Williams,Jordan) 5 yards from BUF09 to BUF14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
68.4%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
68.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 8 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.3%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.1%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2230% → 29%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.4%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
71.1%
Jackson Baltar punt blocked by Hassan Littles blocked by Hassan Littles , Brandon Berger returns for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
71.1%
Jackson Baltar punt blocked by Hassan Littles blocked by Hassan Littles , Brandon Berger returns for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5372% → 77%
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
72.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
76.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:3925% → 26%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
75.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
75.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+15
75.2%
Matt Myers run for 15 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
76.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
75.5%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jake MolinichSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+7
75.9%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
75.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
75.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
75.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+11
75.3%
Matt Myers run for 11 yds to the BalSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-10
75.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominic Johnson) to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+1
76.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
76.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
74.5%
Alex McNulty 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 26 yds · 4:0676% → 77%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
75.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
76.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
76.7%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
76.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
75.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
76.7%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
76.4%
Plitt,Drew pass incomplete to Jackson,Jayshon, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUF Offside declined BUF Pass Interference (Ingram,Ja'Marcus) 10 yards from BUF41 to BUF31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
76.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-12
76.4%
Drew Plitt sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 22
OPP 43
0
76.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:1523% → 21%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
76.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
76.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
75.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
76.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
75.6%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 3
50
+2
75.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
76.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
75.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
75.3%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
75.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
79.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:4280% → 85%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.5%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
79.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.7%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
80.4%
Drew Plitt run for 9 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+32
80.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 32 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
80.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
80.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+3
80.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 3
OPP 13
-5
81.7%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Blackwell,Curtis) 5 yards from BUF13 to BUF18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
84.5%
Jacob Lewis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
83.7%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4917% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
83.0%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:3985% → 86%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
84.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
84.6%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
84.7%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
85.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
85.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+7
84.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
85.8%
Drew Plitt punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0214% → 13%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
85.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 13 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
85.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
85.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Kevin Marks Jr.Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+5
86.6%
Baltar,Jackson punt 22 yards to the BUF40, out of bounds PENALTY BSU Running Into The Kicker (Coll,Casey) 5 yards from BUF18 to BUF23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+1
86.6%
Jackson Baltar punt for 48 yds , Hassan Littles returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:1888% → 93%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
87.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
87.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+25
87.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 25 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
88.4%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
88.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
88.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
88.4%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-8
88.0%
Drew Plitt sacked by Daymond Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+48
92.5%
Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:588% → 7%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jake Molinich for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+29
91.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 29 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 12
OPP 43
-8
91.1%
Matt Myers sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 20
OWN 49
0
92.1%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 20
OWN 49
0
93.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0694% → 95%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
94.2%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
94.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
94.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 4 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
95.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:126% → 6%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
94.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 8 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
94.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.5%
Matt Myers pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
94.5%
BALL ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:3596% → 97%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
96.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
96.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+18
96.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 18 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.5%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
96.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 8
50
0
96.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 8
50
0
96.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:404% → 4%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
96.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
96.0%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-6
95.7%
Matt Myers sacked by Jordan Ward for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+16
96.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 16 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
96.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+12
95.7%
Matt Myers run for 12 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.1%
Matt Myers pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
96.1%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+5
97.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 4
50
0
97.8%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21INT
14 plays · 83 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
97.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+16
97.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 16 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
97.6%
Matt Myers run for 8 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+4
97.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
97.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 12 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 1
50
+4
97.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 4 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
97.3%
Matt Myers run for 8 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+9
97.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 9 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
96.8%
Matt Myers run for 13 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.8%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
97.1%
Matt Myers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
98.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
98.8%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
99.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
98.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:192% → 1%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
98.1%
Myers,Matt pass intercepted by Riley-Scott,Jordan at BSU01, End Of Play PENALTY BSU Offside (Reichert,Nathan) 5 yards from BSU45 to BSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
97.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 9 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-2
98.7%
Matt Myers sacked by Keionte Newson for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
98.9%
PENALTY BUF Illegal Snap (Polgar,Bence) 5 yards from BSU33 to BSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 4:12
Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOOD
+4.6
TD · Q1 2:22
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
+4.5
PUNT · Q2 3:18
Jackson Baltar punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 25
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com