Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 37 at Ball State 17

BALL
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2021 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:03 · Nathan Snyder punt for 56 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense−41.2Score differential−22.3Pregame prior−1.1Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:08: Josh Rolston kickoff for 41 yds , Jayshon Jackson return for 10 yds to the BalSt 34 — CMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: — CMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:22: D. Plitt pass,to Y. Tyler for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +3.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:15: Lew Nichols III 1 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder PAT failed) — CMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:17: Marshall Meeder 44 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:39CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 20, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−5.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:07BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:38CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 48, up 11
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:02BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−2.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:00BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 39, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:30BALL 4th & 7 at CMU 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:17CMU 4th & 12 at BALL 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:03BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:39CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 24, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:39BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:00BALL 4th & 13 at CMU 26, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:00CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 39, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 4:15CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 15:0043% → 49%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
43.1%
pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
43.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson, broken up by Jacques BristolSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
43.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
44.3%
C. Steele run for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Chanove KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
47.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
47.8%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
48.3%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
48.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 31 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 15:0057% → 53%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-5
43.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
44.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+31
46.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 31 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
44.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
46.1%
pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 46
-5
46.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Trey Jones) to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 15:0043% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
43.1%
pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-2
43.1%
Jayshon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
44.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan Littles, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
44.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
46.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan Littles, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 15:0057% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.1%
Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
39.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 9:0843% → 41%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
42.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
42.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan Littles, broken up by John Wesley WhitesideSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
42.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.9%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
41.2%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
40.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Hassan Littles, broken up by John Wesley WhitesideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6INT
15 plays · 45 yds · 12:2057% → 61%
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
42.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 10 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
42.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 16
OPP 44
+14
42.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 14 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.0%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
41.8%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
41.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 10 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
41.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
41.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
41.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the BalSt 34 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Joel Wilson) to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 16
OPP 44
+14
41.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 14 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
40.3%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.4%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
40.0%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
39.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
39.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the BalSt 34 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Joel Wilson) to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 12:2043% → 41%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
42.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
42.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+26
42.4%
Drew Plitt run for 26 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.8%
Drew Plitt pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+26
41.2%
Drew Plitt run for 26 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 12:2557% → 61%
Q1 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
42.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
42.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
42.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
40.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
40.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
40.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 5 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
40.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
40.2%
Darius Bracy run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Agyemang) to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
40.0%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
40.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
39.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 5 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
39.1%
Darius Bracy run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Chris Agyemang) to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
38.9%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+15
38.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.9%
L. Nichols III run for 2 yds for a TD, (M. Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
36.6%
L. Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD, (M. Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:0143% → 45%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
43.0%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+19
44.2%
Carson Steele run for 19 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
44.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
45.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 8 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
45.4%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
45.4%
Jalen McGaughy run for 1 yd to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
44.5%
pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
45.4%
J. Lewis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3855% → 57%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
44.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
43.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 16 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
43.2%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+50
43.3%
Kalil Pimpleton 50 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5339% → 37%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
38.9%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
39.0%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
39.2%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
39.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+2
40.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
40.0%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
40.0%
Jayshon Jackson run for 7 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
40.0%
Trevor Hohlt run for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-2
37.3%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:3029% → 35%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
28.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 7 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
29.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+9
28.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rolliann Sturkey) to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
29.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
30.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
30.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 20 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
31.2%
pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
31.1%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+6
30.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 6 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
31.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
31.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 3 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Amir Siddiq) to the CMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody Rudy, broken up by Justin WhitesideSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
34.6%
D. Plitt pass,to Y. Tyler for 6 yds for a TD, (J. Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14INT
9 plays · 64 yds · 0:4372% → 73%
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
28.1%
pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
28.4%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
28.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+27
27.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 27 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
27.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+7
27.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 7 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
27.2%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
29.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 21
0
30.5%
pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+12
29.5%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:2269% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
30.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
30.4%
pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+3
31.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
30.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-1
30.6%
Darius Bracy pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+17
31.3%
Darius Bracy run for 17 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-1
29.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 9 yds to the BALLST 48 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (JaCorey Sullivan) to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
29.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
29.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
26.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 9:3826% → 20%
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
26.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Corey Stewart) to the BalSt 7Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-3
26.1%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Damon Kaylor) to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 18
OWN 4
+8
26.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+5
25.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-6
25.4%
Drew Plitt sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
23.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
20.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4777% → 89%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
23.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 8 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+11
23.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
23.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 8 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+7
22.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
22.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Remi Simmons for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+16
22.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 16 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.2%
Lew Nichols III 1 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 5:3017% → 15%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.9%
pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
16.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
17.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson, broken up by John Wesley WhitesideSimilar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+21
16.9%
Lucas Borrow run for 21 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
18.7%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
18.5%
Jayshon Jackson run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
18.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson, broken up by Jacques BristolSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
15.1%
pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:1391% → 97%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
9.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+6
8.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
8.3%
Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
8.3%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+14
8.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
8.1%
Darius Bracy run for 7 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
7.9%
Darius Bracy run for 4 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
7.9%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-2
8.2%
Daniel Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+1
8.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
3.2%
Marshall Meeder 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.1%
Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
3.0%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
3.0%
pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
2.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2497% → 98%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
2.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+3
2.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+3
2.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+15
2.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds , Hassan Littles returns for 15 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:393% → 1%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
2.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
2.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+7
2.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
2.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson, broken up by Devonni ReedSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
2.7%
Will Jones run for 15 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
3.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Hassan Littles for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-6
2.9%
Drew Plitt sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+4
2.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 4 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 13
OPP 26
0
1.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jordan Williams, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 4:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
1.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 12 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
1.2%
Darius Bracy run for 14 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
1.2%
Darius Bracy run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
1.2%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
1.2%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
0.6%
Darius Bracy run for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:15
Lew Nichols III 1 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder PAT failed)
-11.5
FG · Q4 11:17
Marshall Meeder 44 yd FG GOOD
-5.3
TD · Q1 0:00
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com