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NIU

Northern Illinois 33 at Buffalo 27

BUF
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2021 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:43 · Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 109Home team on offense−18.2Score differential−9.9Pregame prior−1.3Garbage-time factor−7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Time remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:06: Ron Cook Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +19.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:22: Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +23.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:58: John Richardson 27 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +18.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:10: Alex McNulty 55 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +23.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Clint Ratkovich run for 25 yds for a TD — NIU win probability +53.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at NIU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.4%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12BUF 4th & 10 at NIU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58NIU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:38NIU 4th & 4 at BUF 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:35BUF 4th & 4 at NIU 24, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28NIU 4th & 4 at BUF 12, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:57BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:30BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:42BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:43BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:21NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:58NIU 4th & 9 at BUF 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−25.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:54BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 33, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:10BUF 4th & 10 at NIU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−6.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    40% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−13.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00NIU 4th & 2 at BUF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−13.2
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−29.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 5:29BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:53NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:37NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:06BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:22BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:4846% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
45.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
45.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+27
45.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 27 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
45.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
45.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
45.9%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+6
45.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
45.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-3
45.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
45.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
47.7%
Alex McNulty 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:3152% → 51%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
47.6%
Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
47.4%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
47.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 1
50
+3
48.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
48.1%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+10
48.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+12
48.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
47.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+7
48.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 7 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
49.4%
John Richardson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:0349% → 51%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
49.3%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
49.7%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+24
49.0%
Matt Myers run for 24 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
50.5%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
50.5%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+7
50.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
50.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
52.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+2
51.6%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
51.1%
Alex McNulty 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 7:0750% → 53%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
50.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
50.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
50.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.3%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
49.3%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
49.4%
Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
50.0%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
49.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
48.9%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+15
49.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 15 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
48.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
48.4%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+4
48.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
48.1%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
48.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+8
49.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
47.2%
John Richardson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:5451% → 62%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
51.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
52.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 38 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
53.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+12
53.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 12 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
53.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the NoIll 2Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
54.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the NoIll 1Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
47.8%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 75 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2051% → 50%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Bernard Porter for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
52.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
51.7%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
51.4%
Matt Myers run for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
50.2%
Matt Myers sacked by Jaden Dolphin for 0 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
49.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 59 yds , returns for no gain to the NoIll 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8END OF HALF
14 plays · 61 yds · 3:0151% → 52%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
48.6%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-3
48.8%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 2Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 15
OWN 2
+27
49.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 27 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
47.4%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
47.6%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+12
47.9%
Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
47.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
44.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
43.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
48.0%
DUCKER, Jay rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the NIU43 (GROSS JR., Cory). PENALTY NIU Holding on POTTER, Nolan enforced 10 yards from the NIU36 to the NIU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2151% → 49%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
49.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+8
49.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
50.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+19
51.4%
Matt Ference punt for 50 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 19 yds to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0553% → 50%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
52.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
52.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
51.2%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
50.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 37 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3754% → 68%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
45.9%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
32.0%
Antario Brown run for 47 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1136% → 35%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
36.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
36.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 8 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
34.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 30 yds, downed at the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:0568% → 83%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
31.9%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
31.7%
Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
31.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 36 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
30.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 7 fumbled, recovered by NoIll Rocky LombardiSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
16.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4820% → 18%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
20.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
20.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
20.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
20.4%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+5
20.6%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 5 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
21.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
18.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:0684% → 84%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.9%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
15.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
15.8%
Rocky Lombardi sacked for 0 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:3121% → 40%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
20.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
40.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4072% → 72%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
28.5%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
26.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (J.J. Lippe) to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
27.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
27.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
28.2%
Matt Ference punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5933% → 60%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
33.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+19
32.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 19 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
31.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+29
33.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 29 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
37.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
37.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
37.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
37.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 6 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
60.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 7:2449% → 72%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
51.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
47.7%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+13
49.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 13 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
46.0%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
46.1%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
46.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
44.5%
run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
44.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+10
46.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 10 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
44.0%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 15 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
43.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
43.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
27.6%
John Richardson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:4438% → 57%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
37.7%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
37.6%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
35.7%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+14
33.5%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 14 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
42.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
50
+3
42.7%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+10
42.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
43.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+3
34.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-1
32.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+55
56.5%
Alex McNulty 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 1:0150% → 57%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.6%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
47.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for 11 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
44.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Cory Gross Jr.) to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
38.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
38.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
40.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+37
43.1%
John Richardson 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
63.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the NoIll 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.3%
Matt Myers run for no gain to the NoIll 1 fumbled, recovered by NoIll Demond Taylor Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
9.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 25 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Clint Ratkovich run for 25 yds for a TD
-53.5
FG · Q4 1:10
Alex McNulty 55 yd FG GOOD
+23.9
TD · Q4 12:22
Matt Myers pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
+23
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com