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TOL

Toledo 35 at Ohio 23

OHIO
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2021 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+8.6OHIO 42.9%Stephen Johnson 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q2 10:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:42 · Stephen Johnson 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOffense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense+2.1Pregame prior−13.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:42: Stephen Johnson 34 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +8.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:07: Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +9.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:33: Timeout OHIO, clock 06:33 — TOL win probability +6.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:27: Bryant Koback run for 55 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +13.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:28: Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 85 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +9.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:44TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26OHIO 4th & 9 at TOL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:53OHIO 4th & 2 at TOL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:31TOL 4th & 4 at OHIO 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00OHIO 4th & 1 at TOL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:42OHIO 4th & 11 at TOL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:18OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:20OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 32, down 5
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:05TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:03TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.5
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 40, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00OHIO 4th & 5 at TOL 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:33OHIO 4th & 1 at TOL 14, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%−3.6
    84% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−15.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:27TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.9%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:39OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:56OHIO 4th & 8 at TOL 8, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−7.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:42TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 49, up 19
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 0 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:07TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:27TOL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:28TOL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:43TOL Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:29OHIO Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:07OHIO Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1668% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
31.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
32.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1832% → 33%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.2%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 2 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
32.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 14 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.3%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
32.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Isiah CoxSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
32.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Isiah CoxSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
33.2%
Jonah Wieland punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2567% → 66%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
33.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
33.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+11
33.4%
Dequan Finn run for 11 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 10:01
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
34.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds , Javon Conner returns for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4DOWNS
13 plays · 37 yds · 5:0834% → 35%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
33.9%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
34.2%
Isiah Cox run for 6 yds to the Ohio 45 Isiah Cox fumbled, forced by Tycen Anderson, recovered by Ohio Isiah Cox for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
34.2%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 3 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
34.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Chase CokleySimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
34.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 15 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
34.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+6
34.3%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
34.3%
Jake Neatherton run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
36.6%
Jake Neatherton run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
36.0%
Armani Rogers run for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
35.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2265% → 64%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
35.2%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Berg,Mitchell) 5 yards from TOL29 to TOL24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+17
35.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 17 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
34.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
34.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the OHIO 46 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Winstead) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
34.8%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
34.6%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
34.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
34.5%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+8
35.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q1 1:31
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
35.7%
Bailey Flint punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6FG
18 plays · 71 yds · 5:4934% → 43%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+49
34.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 49 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
35.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
36.5%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 1 yd to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
35.9%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
34.4%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
35.7%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
35.7%
Cameron Odom run for no gain to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
35.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-10
35.2%
Rourke,Kurtis pass complete to Luehrman,Ryan for 6 yards to the TOL07 (Clark,Justin) PENALTY OHI Holding (Amburgey,Jay) 10 yards from TOL13 to TOL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+6
34.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
35.7%
Armani Rogers run for 11 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
35.7%
Cameron Odom run for no gain to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
35.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-10
35.2%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass up the middle complete for 6 yards to LUEHRMAN, Ryan caught at the TOL7 and advanced to the TOL7 (CLARK, Justin). PENALTY OHI Holding on AMBURGEY, Jay enforced 10 yards from the TOL13 to the TOL23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+6
34.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 6 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
42.9%
Stephen Johnson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:2757% → 68%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
42.7%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
41.9%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
41.9%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
40.7%
Dequan Finn run for 14 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
40.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
31.7%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:3629% → 30%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
29.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
29.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
28.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 3 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
28.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
28.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Miles CrossSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.7%
Jake Neatherton run for 5 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Miles CrossSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
30.0%
Jack Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:0374% → 76%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
26.3%
Devin Maddox run for 9 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+18
25.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justin Birchette) to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
25.2%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
24.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+19
24.8%
Bryant Koback run for 19 yds to the Ohio 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
24.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 1:5527% → 25%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.3%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Judge Culpepper for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 20Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
27.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 3 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
26.6%
PENALTY OHI False Start (Jackson,T.J.) 5 yards from OHI23 to OHI18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
26.6%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 14 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
24.9%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 14 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
24.7%
Jonah Wieland punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1772% → 76%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
27.8%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
28.2%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+4
28.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+4
23.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
24.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javon Conner at the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
24.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javon Conner at the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 1:0521% → 24%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
20.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 11 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
22.2%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Luehrman,Ryan QB hurried by Johnson,Desjuan PENALTY TOL Roughing The Passer (Givhan,Nate) 15 yards from OHI48 to TOL37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
20.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 11 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
22.2%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right incomplete intended for LUEHRMAN, Ryan thrown to the TOL48; QB hurried by JOHNSON, Desjuan. PENALTY TOL Roughing the Passer on GIVHAN, Nate enforced 15 yards from the OHI48 to the TOL37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
23.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 9 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-10
24.4%
Rourke,Kurtis rush for 0 yards to the TOL28 (Johnson,Desjuan), out of bounds PENALTY OHI Holding (Sink,Nick) 10 yards from TOL28 to TOL38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-4
22.9%
Kurtis Rourke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+18
21.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for 18 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
24.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+41
24.3%
Stephen Johnson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 8:2735% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.6%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 10 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for 5 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-8
37.1%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Nate Bauer for a loss of 8 yards to the Ohio 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+8
33.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 8 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+10
34.0%
Jonah Wieland pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 20 yds to the OHIO 40 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Illegal Block (Ben Johnson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
37.7%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+7
38.0%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 7 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
38.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
37.9%
Kurtis Rourke run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+3
37.4%
Jake Neatherton run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+11
36.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 11 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
39.5%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
39.5%
Kurtis Rourke run for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
37.7%
Kurtis Rourke run for 2 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
36.1%
Stephen Johnson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5871% → 83%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
28.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
30.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+55
16.9%
Bryant Koback run for 55 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4215% → 14%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
15.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Miles CrossSimilar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
14.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Chase CokleySimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
14.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Chase CokleySimilar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+5
14.2%
Wilson,Jack punt 50 yards to the TOL32 PENALTY TOL Equipment Violation 5 yards from OHI18 to OHI23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
14.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
5.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 85 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:226% → 4%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
5.6%
Isiah Cox run for 31 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
6.3%
Kurtis Rourke run for 8 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
6.1%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
5.5%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 1 yd to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
7.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
6.9%
Armani Rogers run for 8 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
3.7%
Armani Rogers run for 4 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
4.6%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Cox,Isiah PENALTY TOL Holding (Womack,Samuel) 8 yards from TOL16 to TOL08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Isiah CoxSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.3%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Isiah CoxSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
3.6%
Stephen Johnson 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1497% → 97%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
3.5%
Bryant Koback run for 21 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
3.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
3.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
3.2%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
2.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:5998% → 100%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 19
OPP 25
+12
2.4%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Ohio 13Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
2.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the Ohio 10 TOLEDO Penalty, Chop Block (Danzel McKinley-Lewis) to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
0.5%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 6:140% → 1%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Ty Walton run for 7 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic III for 8 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 43Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+22
0.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 22 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke run for 6 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+2
0.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
0.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 5 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 6 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by D'Andre Ragin for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
0.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to James Bostic IIISimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-5
0.2%
PENALTY OHI False Start (Titsworth,Parker) 5 yards from TOL14 to TOL19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 17
OPP 19
+10
0.2%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Odom,Cameron QB hurried by Culpepper,Judge PENALTY TOL Holding (McDonald Jr.,Chris) 10 yards from TOL19 to TOL09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
0.2%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Cokley,Chase broken up by Clark,Justin QB hurried by Hines,Jamal PENALTY TOL Roughing The Passer (Hines,Jamal) 4 yards from TOL09 to TOL05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
0.1%
Rourke,Kurtis pass complete to Walton,Ty for 5 yards to the TOL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:09 PENALTY OHI Pass Interference (Odom,Cameron) 15 yards from TOL05 to TOL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
0.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 5 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
0.1%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Luehrman,Ryan PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Anderson,Tycen) 11 yard from TOL15 to TOL04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 4 yds for a TD (Stephen Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 2:221% → 6%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
0.8%
Rourke,Kurtis pass complete to Burton,Alec for 12 yards to the TOL42 (Johnson,Dyontae) PENALTY OHI Holding (Amburgey,Jay) 10 yards from OHI46 to OHI36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+9
0.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 9 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
0.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+11
0.8%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 11 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
0.9%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Luehrman,Ryan broken up by Anderson,Tycen PENALTY TOL Roughing The Passer (Alexander,Darius) 15 yards from TOL44 to TOL29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
1.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Adam Luehrman for 9 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-5
1.0%
PENALTY OHI False Start (Habinowski,Joseph) 5 yards from TOL20 to TOL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+11
1.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 11 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.0%
Rourke,Kurtis pass incomplete to Walton,Ty PENALTY OHI Holding offsetting TOL Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
6.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 14 yds for a TD (Stephen Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0298% → 99%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
2.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
2.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Ohio 9Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+2
1.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:27
Bryant Koback run for 55 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 3:28
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 85 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 9:07
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com