Try the model
BALL

Ball State 29 at Northern Illinois 30

NIU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2021 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:27 · Nathan Snyder punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior−8.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:29: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 58 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +15.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:08: Justin Hall 2 Yd Run (Jake Chanove Kick) — BALL win probability +11.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:42: Jay Ducker run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +36.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:42: Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +34.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: John Richardson 32 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +61.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:00BALL 4th & 4 at NIU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46BALL 4th & 11 at NIU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:01NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:36NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:40BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:14NIU 4th & 20 at BALL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:01BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:46NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:45NIU 4th & 5 at BALL 21, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−9.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:24BALL 4th & 7 at NIU 41, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−1.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:42NIU 4th & 6 at BALL 45, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.2%−3.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:04BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 8, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−2.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:04NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 39, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.5%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:42BALL 4th & 10 at NIU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−11.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−16.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:04BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:41NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:50BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:08BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:42NIU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−2.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3359% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
41.4%
Justin Hall run for 15 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
41.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
41.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0942% → 42%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
41.9%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
41.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+4
41.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+23
42.3%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , Justin Hall returns for 23 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1858% → 57%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
42.2%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
42.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
42.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
42.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:4543% → 44%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
43.1%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
43.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for loss of 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+3
43.2%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
43.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2957% → 57%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
42.8%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
42.7%
Justin Hall run for 17 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
42.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
42.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
42.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 6
OPP 21
-5
43.2%
PENALTY BSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NIU21 to NIU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
43.5%
Jacob Lewis 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4243% → 43%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
42.9%
Mason Blakemore run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
43.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 11 yds Trayvon Rudolph fumbled, forced by Brett Anderson II, recovered by BalSt Malcolm LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:5858% → 61%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
42.5%
Jalen McGaughy run for 25 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
42.2%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 16Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
42.2%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
38.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0339% → 38%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
38.8%
Mason Blakemore run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
39.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
39.6%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
39.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
37.7%
Rocky Lombardi punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5261% → 61%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
38.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
39.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
39.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 9
OWN 3
0
39.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 44 yds , Cole Tucker returns for no gain to the NoIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:1938% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
38.2%
Jay Ducker run for 17 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
38.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+24
38.7%
Jay Ducker run for 24 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
39.4%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
39.4%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Tucker,Cole PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Uzodinma,Amechi) 8 yards from BSU10 to BSU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.8%
Clint Ratkovich 2 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick), (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4757% → 64%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
43.5%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
43.5%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
42.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+49
42.3%
Carson Steele run for 49 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
35.7%
Justin Hall run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0936% → 34%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
35.9%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
36.0%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+3
35.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
34.0%
Matt Ference punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5664% → 65%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
36.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jordan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
36.6%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
37.1%
BALL ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
35.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:2635% → 36%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
34.5%
Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
35.1%
Jay Ducker run for 19 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.2%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+19
36.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 19 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
37.1%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
37.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
37.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BalSt 7Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
36.2%
Brown,Antario rush for 7 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:01 PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from BSU07 to BSU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+2
35.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 2 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
34.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 2:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
35.6%
John Richardson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0567% → 68%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
32.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 3 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
32.5%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
32.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 0:3235% → 51%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
34.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 5 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+9
35.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 9 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
35.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
50.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 58 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:2455% → 60%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+45
44.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 45 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
40.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+11
40.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 11 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
40.3%
Jake Chanove 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1144% → 41%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
44.0%
Ducker,Jay rush for 20 yards gain to the NIU40 (Anderson,Brett) PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU20 to NIU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+5
43.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 5 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
43.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
42.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 13:46
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
41.3%
Matt Ference punt blocked by Hassan Littles, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 0 for a SAFETY blocked by Hassan Littles for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3158% → 73%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
41.8%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
41.4%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
40.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
39.8%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+25
39.4%
Drew Plitt run for 25 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
38.3%
Will Jones run for 6 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+9
38.3%
Justin Hall run for 9 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
38.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.6%
Justin Hall 2 Yd Run (Jake Chanove Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1931% → 38%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
30.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
32.1%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
31.7%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
32.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+31
31.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 31 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.0%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
34.9%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
33.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles JoinerSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
37.9%
John Richardson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:2168% → 71%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.9%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
31.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
33.1%
Plitt,Drew pass incomplete to Hall,Justin PENALTY NIU Roughing The Passer 15 yards from BSU27 to BSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
29.6%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+10
29.6%
Justin Hall run for 10 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
29.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
28.7%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
29.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Will JonesSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
29.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:4235% → 34%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
34.9%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+6
34.5%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+28
35.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 28 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
38.6%
Jay Ducker run for 9 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
40.0%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
40.3%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
40.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
40.0%
Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
33.8%
Rocky Lombardi punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3872% → 72%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
27.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 9Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+1
28.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 8Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
29.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+8
27.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 69 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 31 , Cole Tucker returns for 8 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 7:2230% → 74%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
29.4%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+6
28.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+5
28.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 5 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
32.8%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
33.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.1%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
34.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles JoinerSimilar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+14
32.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
37.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
36.9%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
34.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
37.0%
Clint Ratkovich run for 7 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+10
73.7%
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:0042% → 81%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
57.7%
Justin Hall run for 19 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
53.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 15 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
50.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
51.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
18.9%
Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 1:4235% → 96%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
38.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
38.8%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Ekpe,Anthony) 5 yards from NIU40 to NIU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+12
39.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 12 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
42.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
42.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
41.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 6 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
45.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 7 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
45.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+12
35.7%
PENALTY BSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 12 yards from BSU23 to BSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
38.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+32
95.7%
John Richardson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
John Richardson 32 yd FG GOOD
+61.6
TD · Q4 2:42
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
+36.7
FG · Q4 1:42
Jacob Lewis 48 yd FG GOOD
-34.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com