Try the model
TOL

Toledo 49 at Bowling Green 17

BGSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2021 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:12 · Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−28.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:51: Bryant Koback run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:24: Terion Stewart run for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:34: Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +6.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:23: Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 59 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +7.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:15: Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:12BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41BGSU 4th & 15 at BGSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 35, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.7%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:56BGSU 4th & 20 at TOL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17TOL 4th & 9 at BGSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:32BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 3, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:52BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 19, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:08BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 26, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:22TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 44, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:10BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 31, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:27TOL 4th & 1 at BGSU 9, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:42TOL 4th & 11 at BGSU 37, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:57TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:51TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:24BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:34TOL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:23TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:15TOL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:27TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:27TOL Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:56BGSU Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4821% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.1%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
21.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
21.1%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1578% → 78%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
22.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.0%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to McKinley-Lewis,Danzel broken up by Anderson,Jordan QB hurried by Horne,Brock PENALTY BGS Roughing The Passer (Hardamon,Demetrius) 15 yards from TOL25 to TOL40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
21.9%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+13
22.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
50
+50
21.7%
Bryant Koback run for 50 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1622% → 22%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.1%
Matt McDonald sacked by Tycen Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
22.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
21.9%
Matt McDonald run for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+4
22.1%
Matt Naranjo punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:5078% → 80%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
22.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+39
22.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 39 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
21.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
21.8%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
20.1%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3121% → 21%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
21.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
21.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
21.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
20.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1080% → 80%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
20.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
20.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
20.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
20.1%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3922% → 25%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
21.7%
Terion Stewart run for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
21.9%
Stewart,Terion rush for 2 yards loss to the TOL30 (Johnson,Dyontae) PENALTY TOL Personal Foul 14 yards from TOL28 to TOL14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
21.9%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
21.9%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
25.1%
Terion Stewart run for 8 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:0977% → 76%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
23.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
23.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
22.8%
PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from TOL42 to TOL37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
23.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
23.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
24.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 25 yds · 4:0425% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
24.9%
Stewart,Terion rush for 2 yards gain to the BGS47 (Hines,Jamal; Jones,Jonathan) PENALTY BGS Holding 10 yards from BGS45 to BGS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+7
24.1%
Matt McDonald run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+5
24.3%
Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+15
24.4%
McDonald,Matt pass incomplete to Broden,Tyrone PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Clark,Justin) 15 yards from BGS47 to TOL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
25.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
25.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
25.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+15
25.5%
Terion Stewart run for 15 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
26.2%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
26.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-11
26.0%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jonathan Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+47
26.6%
Nate Needham 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3973% → 72%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
26.9%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
26.3%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
26.3%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
26.4%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
50
0
26.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
50
+1
26.1%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
26.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
27.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4727% → 27%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
26.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 9 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+11
27.3%
Jaison Patterson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.3%
Matt McDonald run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
26.5%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
26.5%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+5
26.8%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 5 yds to the Toled 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:5673% → 81%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
26.8%
Micah Kelly run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
25.7%
Micah Kelly run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
19.3%
Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:0220% → 19%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
19.9%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Gazarek,Levi) 5 yards from BGS12 to BGS07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+2
19.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 13
OWN 9
0
19.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+6
19.1%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 19
OWN 3
0
18.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 48 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
11.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 59 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:2613% → 13%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-9
13.1%
Matt McDonald sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+7
13.8%
Terion Stewart run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
13.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:3789% → 97%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
10.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+44
10.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 44 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
9.1%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
2.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:073% → 2%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
2.9%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+6
2.1%
Terion Stewart run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2696% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
3.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 17 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
3.6%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
3.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
3.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
2.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 5 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+15
2.3%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah QB hurried by Hardamon,Demetrius PENALTY BGS Pass Interference (Taylor,Devin) 15 yards from BGS36 to BGS21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
2.3%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
2.1%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
2.1%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
2.2%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:132% → 1%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
1.6%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
1.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-3
1.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
1.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
1.2%
run for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+9
1.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+2
1.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
1.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
1.1%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
1.1%
Terion Stewart run for no gain to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
0.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4399% → 99%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
0.9%
Micah Kelly run for 18 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
0.8%
Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
0.8%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+14
0.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
0.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Alex EndersSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-15
0.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+22
0.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 22 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
0.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
0.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+7
0.5%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
0.6%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:310% → 0%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Nick Mosley run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.3%
Nick Mosley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
0.4%
Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
0.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 13 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
0.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 13 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
0.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 23 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.3%
Terion Stewart run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
0.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+10
0.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
0.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-5
0.3%
PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from BGS32 to BGS37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Alex EndersSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 11
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
0.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:240% → 0%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Griffin LittleSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+22
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
0.1%
Tucker Melton pass complete to Griffin Little for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+5
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 5 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Zach RussellSimilar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+6
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.1%
Tucker Melton pass incomplete to Jhaylin EmbrySimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.1%
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+9
0.1%
Jamal Johnson run for 9 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
0.2%
Melton,Tucker pass incomplete to Little,Griffin PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Lacey,Michael) 15 yards from TOL22 to TOL07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.2%
Nick Mosley run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.1%
Tucker Melton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:23
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 59 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q2 3:34
Dequan Finn run for 13 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-6.4
TD · Q2 1:15
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com