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AKR

Akron 40 at Western Michigan 45

WMU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2021 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-10WMU 74.7%Zach Morton 24 Yd Interception Return(Cory Smigel PAT failed)AWAY 37 - HOME 38 · Q4 9:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:37 · Zach Morton 24 Yd Interception Return (Cory Smigel PAT failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+10.4Home team on offense+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:26: Jonzell Norrils 4 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +8.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:44: Konata Mumpfield 11 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +9.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:37: Zach Morton 24 Yd Interception Return (Cory Smigel PAT failed) — AKR win probability +10.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:22: Cory Smigel 39 Yd Field Goal — AKR win probability +27.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:00: Corey Crooms 45 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick) — WMU win probability +57.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 2:08AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:31WMU 4th & 6 at AKR 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:31AKR 4th & 8 at WMU 34, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:10WMU 4th & 22 at WMU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:10AKR 4th & 3 at WMU 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:18AKR 4th & 21 at WMU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:04AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:52AKR 4th & 5 at WMU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:31WMU 4th & 10 at AKR 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:22AKR 4th & 17 at WMU 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−16.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−22.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00AKR 4th & 25 at WMU 43, down 5
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−6.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    25.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:55AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:23WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:02WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:24WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:26AKR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:39WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44AKR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:37AKR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:00WMU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:055% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+12
94.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
94.6%
Zach Gibson run for 6 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
94.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
94.6%
Jonzell Norrils run for 1 yd to the Akron 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+23
94.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 23 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.6%
Jonzell Norrils run for 1 yd to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+21
94.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 21 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.2%
Konata Mumpfield 17 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:2793% → 93%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.3%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 22Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+9
93.3%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for NUNNELLY, Bryce thrown to the WMU32. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on JACKSON, JR., Ronald enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the WMU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
93.3%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
93.3%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+8
93.3%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
93.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+5
93.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
93.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for 4 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
93.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+11
93.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 11 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
93.4%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 27Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+27
92.5%
Jaxson Kincaide 27 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:108% → 9%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
92.1%
Jonzell Norrils run for 5 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
92.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
92.0%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
92.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for 5 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.0%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
92.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 7
OWN 40
-3
91.1%
Ethan Slike punt for 49 yds , Bryce Nunnelly returns for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:3791% → 90%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+38
91.1%
Sean Tyler run for 38 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
91.5%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+7
91.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
91.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 21 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
91.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+8
90.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
91.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
90.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 6Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
89.8%
Nick Mihalic 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:5511% → 12%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
89.4%
Zach Gibson run for 9 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-5
89.0%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 42Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
89.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
89.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+5
89.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 5 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
89.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
89.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
89.1%
DJ Irons pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
87.7%
Cory Smigel 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:2988% → 92%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+22
88.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 22 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
89.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 49Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+16
88.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 16 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
89.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-10
89.4%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+12
89.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
89.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.8%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
88.8%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the right incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen thrown to the AKR0. PENALTY AKR Pass Interference on KELLY-POWELL, Jaylen enforced 4 yards to the AKR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.4%
Sean Tyler 2 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:2087% → 92%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 16 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
87.3%
Sean Tyler run for 12 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.8%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
87.8%
Sean Tyler run for 11 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
88.1%
Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
88.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
87.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+5
86.3%
AKRON Penalty, Offsides (Zach Morton) to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
87.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Brett Borske for 9 yds to the Akron 10Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+6
87.7%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the Akron 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.7%
Sean Tyler 4 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.8%
Zach Gibson sacked for 0 yards to the WMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:1092% → 92%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
91.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+24
91.6%
Sean Tyler run for 24 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.2%
Nick Mihalic 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Michael Mathison return for no gain to the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -12 yds · 2:4491% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
91.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-5
91.2%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass up the middle complete for 23 yards to MOORE, Skyy caught at the WMU47 and advanced to the AKR49 (KELLY-POWELL, Jaylen). PENALTY WMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CAMPBELL, Trevor enforced 5 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
90.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 24Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
89.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 19Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
89.6%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Ryan McClain for 0 yards to the WMich 8Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
89.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11FG
17 plays · 28 yds · 5:5211% → 12%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
89.2%
Zach Gibson run for 3 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
89.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+5
89.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offsides (Ali Fayad) to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
89.1%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
89.2%
Zach Gibson run for 7 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
88.4%
Konata Mumpfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
89.1%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+13
90.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Andre Williams for 13 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
88.4%
Zach Gibson run for 1 yd to the WMich 17Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
89.2%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+11
90.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 11 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
89.2%
GIBSON, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for BRANK, Tristian thrown to the WMU0. PENALTY AKR Illegal Block in the Back on MURPHY, Owen enforced 10 yards from the WMU6 to the WMU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
-4
89.5%
DJ Irons run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 20Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
89.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 5 yds to the WMich 15Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
90.7%
Zach Gibson sacked by Marshawn Kneeland for 0 yards to the WMich 21Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
87.9%
Cory Smigel 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:387% → 17%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
93.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 28Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-5
93.7%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 23Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 18
OWN 23
0
93.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+17
93.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 17 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+3
93.3%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
93.0%
Zach Gibson run for 11 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
92.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
91.9%
GIBSON, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for MUMPFIELD, Konata thrown to the WMU10. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on MOERTL, Jake enforced 15 yards to the WMU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
91.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jr. Tony Grimes for 9 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+6
91.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.9%
Jonzell Norrils 4 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4788% → 97%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+24
91.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 24 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
91.6%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+5
91.1%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
91.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 11 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
91.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 21 yds to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Kaleb Eleby 1 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 3:555% → 15%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.0%
run for 3 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
94.9%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
95.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+15
95.1%
GIBSON, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for MATHISON, Michael thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on WARE, Delano enforced 15 yards to the WMU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
94.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
94.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Jonzell Norrils run for no gain to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offsides (Marshawn Kneeland) to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
95.2%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete AKRON Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GRAY, Xavior ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+10
95.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the WMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
94.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CARTER, Andre enforced half the distance from the goal (Andre Carter) to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
94.7%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
84.8%
Konata Mumpfield 11 Yd pass from Zach Gibson (Cory Smigel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-24
74.7%
Zach Morton 24 Yd Interception Return (Cory Smigel PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0674% → 73%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
73.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 13 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
74.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 18 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
76.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
77.5%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
78.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
75.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
72.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 4:0932% → 70%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
68.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 9Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+27
69.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 27 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
65.7%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
63.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
66.0%
AKRON Penalty, False Start (Konata Mumpfield) to the Akron 34Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+23
69.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 23 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
61.1%
Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+25
60.9%
Jonzell Norrils run for 25 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
54.3%
Jonzell Norrils run for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
53.4%
Jonzell Norrils run for 1 yd to the WMich 14Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
57.1%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ali Fayad and Braden Fiske for 0 yards to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
29.7%
Cory Smigel 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:1851% → 94%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
51.2%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass up the middle incomplete intended for CROOMS, Corey thrown to the AKR40. PENALTY AKR Holding on WATTS, A.J. enforced 10 yards from the WMU27 to the WMU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
52.1%
ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the WMU42, out of bounds. PENALTY WMU Holding on FRENCH, Wesley enforced 10 yards from the WMU37 to the WMU27 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 20
OWN 27
0
49.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+20
48.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 20 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
36.8%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+45
94.4%
Corey Crooms 45 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:0016% → 12%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
84.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for 8 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
80.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 9 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
81.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 23 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
72.2%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
79.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-10
85.2%
GIBSON, Zach pass to the left incomplete intended for NORRILS, Jonzell thrown to the WMU21; QB hurried by FISKE, Braden. PENALTY AKR Holding on GRAY, Xavior enforced 10 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 20
OPP 38
0
87.3%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 20
OPP 38
-5
88.1%
AKRON Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 25
OPP 43
0
88.4%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:00
Corey Crooms 45 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)
+57.6
FG · Q4 2:22
Cory Smigel 39 Yd Field Goal
-27.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com