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BGSU

Bowling Green 56 at Buffalo 44

BUF
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:24 · Matt Myers pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 230Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense−40.5Score differential−22.8Garbage-time factor−16.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:07: Mason Lawler kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — BGSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:12: Christian Sims 6 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick) — BGSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:07: Tyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick) — BGSU win probability +17.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Terion Stewart run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST down — BGSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:35: Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) — BGSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:36BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:36BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:10BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:10BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:45BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 9:45BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:52BGSU 4th & 7 at BUF 17, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:33BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−1.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:36BUF 4th & 13 at BGSU 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−3.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:44BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 9:44BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:08BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:08BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:06BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:06BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:01BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:04BGSU 4th & 20 at BGSU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:47BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:24BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 13, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:26BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:31BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:12BGSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:52BUF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:07BGSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 15:0018% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.2%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by Kadofi Wright for 0 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+81
81.5%
M. McDonald pass,to C. Sims for 81 yds for a TD, (N. Needham KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.5%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
72.5%
Matt McDonald sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 13:2081% → 73%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
81.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 18 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
81.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WALLACE, Gabe ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
81.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
80.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
80.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jhaylin Embry at the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
73.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 18 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.8%
pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
73.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jamari Gassett, broken up by Jalen Burton BUFFALO Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass ( Yards) to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Devin TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 12:3619% → 27%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
81.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-2
80.9%
Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
81.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+13
80.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 51 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 13 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+13
80.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 51 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 13 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
72.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-2
72.0%
Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
72.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. BazileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 11:1080% → 73%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
80.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
80.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
80.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
79.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 52 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
79.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 52 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
73.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-2
73.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
72.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic Johnson, broken up by Jalen BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
23 plays · 87 yds · 9:4521% → 34%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
79.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+17
79.3%
Jaison Patterson run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+35
79.1%
Terion Stewart run for 35 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
79.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-11
79.1%
Taron Keith run for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 26
OPP 36
+16
79.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+3
79.2%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+8
76.0%
Matt Naranjo run for 8 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
75.1%
Matt McDonald run for 8 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.1%
Nick Mosley run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.0%
Jhaylin Embry 1 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
67.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+17
67.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
66.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+35
66.5%
Terion Stewart run for 35 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
66.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Jalen Grant) to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-11
66.3%
Taron Keith run for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 26
OPP 36
+16
66.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+3
66.6%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
66.2%
Matt McDonald run for 8 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FG
27 plays · 58 yds · 18:2271% → 47%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
70.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
71.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+7
70.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
71.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
71.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
71.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 28 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
67.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+4
67.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+7
67.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
67.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
67.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
67.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 28 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
68.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
68.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
68.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
68.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
66.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
66.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
66.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
66.4%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Karl Brooks for 0 yards to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
63.0%
Alex McNulty 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
46.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
46.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
46.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
47.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-7
46.6%
Kyle Vantrease sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · -2 yds · 11:2940% → 53%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.0%
Taron Keith run for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
60.1%
MCDONALD, Matt pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to OSBORNE, Austin caught at the BUF40 and advanced to the BUF36 (FUQUA, Marcus). PENALTY BOW Holding on GAZAREK, Levi enforced 10 yards from the BOW47 to the BOW37 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+8
59.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 8 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
59.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
58.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
58.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.8%
Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
45.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Levi Gazarek) to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
46.6%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 9:4463% → 49%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
63.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
63.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
61.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted return for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
49.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
49.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 8:2641% → 73%
Q2 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
58.7%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.9%
Matt McDonald sacked by James Patterson for 0 yards to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.5%
Christian Sims 6 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
26.9%
Terion Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
27.1%
Matt McDonald sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
23 plays · 75 yds · 7:1252% → 54%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.9%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian thrown to the BOW40. PENALTY BOW Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Devin enforced 15 yards to the BUF40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
53.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
53.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
53.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
53.6%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for REEF, Jahkeel broken up by SIMMS, Trent at the BOW15. PENALTY BOW Offsides on HAWKINS, Anthony enforced 5 yards from the BOW47 to the BOW42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
54.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
53.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
55.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
55.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
55.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
57.6%
Mike Washington 14 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian Williams for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devin Taylor) to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
51.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
51.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
51.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
52.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
52.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jahkeel Reef, broken up by Trent Simms BOWLING GREEN Penalty, off-side (Anthony Hawkins) to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
52.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+7
52.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
54.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
54.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
54.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 2:3645% → 70%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
54.7%
Terion Stewart run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
36.8%
Tyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
30.4%
Terion Stewart run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:0741% → 36%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.0%
Jamari Gassett run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
42.0%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Walter Haire for 0 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.0%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 46 yds, downed at the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 46 yds, downed at the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.2%
Jamari Gassett run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
37.2%
Kyle Vantrease sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.1%
pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -1 yds · 1:0866% → 69%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
33.1%
Jhaylin Embry run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+4
31.8%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
33.3%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
33.3%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
31.0%
pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
31.2%
Jhaylin Embry run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14MISSED FG
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0652% → 51%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.5%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.1%
pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+52
50.9%
Alex McNulty 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
17 plays · 72 yds · 7:2038% → 29%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
37.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+2
37.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+16
37.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 16 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
39.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
40.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
40.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
40.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
39.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 8 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
41.0%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
41.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
40.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
41.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
40.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (3 Yards) to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
41.3%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
41.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.6%
Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3480% → 83%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.9%
Taron Keith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
19.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
20.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
17.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 49 yds , Quian Williams returns for 5 yds to the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:5223% → 23%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
23.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
23.0%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+15
22.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Karl Brooks) to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
25.3%
MYERS, Matt pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian broken up by TAYLOR, Devin at the BOW23. PENALTY BOW Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Devin enforced 15 yards to the BOW37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
25.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+5
25.3%
MYERS, Matt pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian broken up by TAYLOR, Devin at the BOW5. PENALTY BOW Offsides on HAIRE, Walter enforced 5 yards from the BOW39 to the BOW34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
27.3%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+15
26.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin Taylor) to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
27.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
27.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.1%
Matt Myers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0589% → 91%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.2%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
11.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
11.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
50
-15
10.2%
STEWART, Terion rush to the left for a gain of 35 yards to the BUF15 (WASHINGTON, Aapri), out of bounds. PENALTY BOW Personal Foul on BANKS-WALL, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards from the BOW50 to the BOW35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+3
11.2%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 22
OWN 38
+2
10.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 20
OWN 40
0
11.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
8.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 27 yds, downed at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5514% → 11%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
13.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
13.9%
Matt Myers sacked by Anthony Hawkins for 0 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 17
OWN 26
0
10.8%
Matt Myers pass intercepted return for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
6.4%
Tyrone Broden 30 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4911% → 8%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
11.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
11.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
10.0%
MYERS, Matt pass to the right intercepted by ANDERSON, Jordan at the BUF49. Anderson return for 12 yards to the BUF37 (WASHINGTON, Aapri). PENALTY BOW Roughing the Passer on PORTER, Jordan enforced 15 yards from the BUF38 to the BOW47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
10.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
11.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
10.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
11.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
11.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
11.8%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
8.2%
Dylan McDuffie 13 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
4.6%
Terion Stewart 77 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 2:426% → 7%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
6.4%
MYERS, Matt pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Quian broken up by TAYLOR, Devin at the BOW41. PENALTY BOW Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Devin enforced 15 yards to the BUF38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
6.6%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
6.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
7.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 13
50
0
6.6%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 13
50
0
6.4%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 13
50
0
6.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (Demetrius Hardamon) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.1%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
6.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+19
5.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 19 yds to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
6.7%
Matt Myers 10 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5998% → 99%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
2.3%
Terion Stewart run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
2.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by James Patterson and Eric Black for 0 yards to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+14
2.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 14 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
1.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:233% → 2%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
2.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-10
2.7%
MCDUFFIE, Dylan rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the BUF26 (HARDAMON, Demetrius). PENALTY BUF Holding on BORLAND, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the BUF22 to the BUF12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+7
2.7%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
2.7%
Matt Myers sacked by Blaine Spires and Demetrius Hardamon for 0 yards to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
2.2%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0599% → 99%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.7%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Osborne) to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 17
OPP 20
+20
0.8%
Terion Stewart 20 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:102% → 2%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
2.2%
Matt Myers sacked by Dontrez Brown for 0 yards to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+57
2.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 57 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
2.7%
Matt Myers sacked by Jordan Porter for 0 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+36
2.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 36 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.4%
Dominic Johnson 4 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:42
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+47
2.9%
Matt McDonald 47 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:381% → 1%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
1.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 30 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
0.8%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+17
0.7%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 17 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
0.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 14 yds to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
0.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
0.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
0.8%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:07
Tyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
-17.9
TD · Q2 7:12
Christian Sims 6 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
-13.3
TD · Q3 7:35
Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com