2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:43 · Jack Wilson punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:04: De'Montre Tuggle run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Johnson KICK) — OHIO win probability +10.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: OHIO down 3 timeouts).
- TD · Q3 13:28: Xavier Williams run for 15 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +11.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:37: Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +11.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:44: Kurtis Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD (Nykeim Johnson KICK) — OHIO win probability +20.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:49: Stephen Johnson 20 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +7.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 11:22OHIO 4th & 1 at KENT 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.8%70% to convertField goal38.5%−0.230% to makePunt38.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:25OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snapGo for it37.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q1 6:27KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 10, up 7Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 4:00KENT 4th & 6 at OHIO 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snapGo for it63.3%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call63.5%84% to makePunt61.2%−2.2average punt
- Q1 2:43OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%average punt
- Q1 1:02KENT 4th & 1 at OHIO 45, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.8%70% to convertField goal63.3%−1.625% to makePunt63.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 10:45KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 33, up 10Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:53KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 19, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q3 1:12OHIO 4th & 3 at KENT 6, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snapGo for it14.5%46% to convertField goalTheir call13.4%−1.191% to makePunt5.6%−8.9average punt
- Q4 13:00KENT 4th & 2 at OHIO 37, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 90.2% before the snapGo for it90.4%57% to convertField goal88.2%−2.140% to makePuntTheir call88.0%−2.4average punt
- Q4 3:04KENT 4th & 2 at OHIO 10, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.0%55% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%−1.288% to makePunt81.1%−6.9average punt
- Q4 0:49OHIO 4th & 3 at KENT 3, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snapGo for it9.3%44% to convertField goalTheir call9.1%−0.193% to makePunt4.9%−4.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:09KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.0%97% to makeGo for two62.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:04OHIO Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.1%97% to makeGo for two40.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15KENT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.3%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:28KENT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:37OHIO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.2%97% to makeGo for two26.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:37KENT Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.2%97% to makeGo for two85.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:44OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.8%97% to makeGo for two16.7%−1.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3337% → 39%
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
37.1%
ROGERS, Armani pass to the left incomplete intended for ODOM, Cameron thrown to the KSU36. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on MILLER, Montre enforced 15 yards to the OHI49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:1362% → 64%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
38.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kris Leach for 14 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
38.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
36.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 33 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3937% → 37%
Q1 10:04
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+9
36.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Cameron Odom for 9 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5864% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
KENTDrive 6FG10 plays · 30 yds · 2:1964% → 65%
Q1 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
35.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 4 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
35.3%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+13
35.2%
Dustin Crum run for 23 yds KENT ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 17
OPP 25
+13
35.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 13 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1035% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8DOWNS6 plays · 26 yds · 1:4165% → 66%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
34.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FUMBLE6 plays · 40 yds · 2:3634% → 34%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+10
33.5%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass up the middle incomplete intended for COX, Isiah broken up by MILLER, Montre at the KSU26. PENALTY KSU Holding on LAWRENCE-BURKE, Mandela enforced 10 yards from the KSU43 to the KSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
33.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 18 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4166% → 66%
OHIODrive 11INT9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0931% → 31%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 8 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
31.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 9 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
31.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for 22 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+9
32.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 9 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
31.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass intercepted, touchback. Keith Sherald Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4369% → 68%
OHIODrive 13TD12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4929% → 42%
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 12 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
29.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 3 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
30.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 8 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
30.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+29
31.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 29 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14TD12 plays · 71 yds · 1:4362% → 73%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
38.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 12 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
36.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 6 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
36.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 6 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
34.5%
CRUM, Dustin pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Nykeim thrown to the OHI0. PENALTY OHI Roughing the Passer on HOUSTON, Bryce enforced 15 yards from the OHI34 to the OHI19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Bryce Houston and Bryce Stai for 0 yards to the Ohio 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 12 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
31.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 12 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3271% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
28.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+13
27.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 13 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
27.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 21 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17TD10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4721% → 29%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
20.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
21.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 19 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
21.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 3 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0074% → 89%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 2 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
24.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 4 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+11
23.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 11 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
22.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 8 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+12
22.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 12 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19FG11 plays · 54 yds · 4:2210% → 8%
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
9.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 8 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for no gain to the KntSt 48Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
10.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Adam Luehrman for 8 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
10.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 5 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
10.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 22 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
10.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 5 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1290% → 93%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
8.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
8.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
8.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 7 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:166% → 29%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
7.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
50
+7
7.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 7 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
7.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 11 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+10
8.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic III for 10 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+9
7.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 9 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22FG14 plays · 65 yds · 4:4084% → 95%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 17 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
14.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
13.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dante Cephas for 5 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
13.0%
WILLIAMS, Xavier rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the OHI33 (BURTON, Jeremiah). PENALTY Before the snap, OHI Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the OHI35 to the OHI30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23FG15 plays · 61 yds · 2:103% → 11%
Q4 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
2.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+16
2.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 16 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
3.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 11 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
3.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 8 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+9
2.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Chase Cokley for 9 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
3.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 10 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:44
Kurtis Rourke run for 1 yd for a TD (Nykeim Johnson KICK)
+20.6
TD · Q3 5:37
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
-11.8
TD · Q3 13:28
Xavier Williams run for 15 yds for a TD (Andrew Glass KICK)
-11.4