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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBUF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:32 · DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 23 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Dolac) to the Buff 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:50: Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +2.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:16: Jonzell Norrils run for 74 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +2.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:57: Cory Smigel 35 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +3.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:32: Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:18: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +3.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 12:24AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.3%average punt
- Q1 9:41BUF 4th & 4 at AKR 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.4%48% to convertField goal77.3%−0.140% to makePunt77.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:41AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.7%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q1 6:35BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it75.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.8%average punt
- Q1 2:59BUF 4th & 5 at AKR 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.1%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call74.2%92% to makePunt72.5%−1.6average punt
- Q1 0:45AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snapGo for it25.2%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q2 6:57AKR 4th & 3 at BUF 18, down 9Close callKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.1%51% to convertField goalTheir call23.6%−0.579% to makePunt19.8%−4.2average punt
- Q4 12:29BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 46, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it88.1%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.4%average punt
- Q4 10:41AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 25, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snapGo for it10.5%−1.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q4 4:32AKR 4th & 11 at BUF 18, down 12Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 9.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%−1.724% to convertField goal9.3%79% to makePunt5.0%−4.3average punt
- Q4 0:00AKR 4th & 4 at BUF 23, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%47% to convertField goal4.6%−0.670% to makePunt3.1%−2.1average punt
- Q4 0:00BUF 4th & 1 at AKR 27, up 12Close callWent for it · 96.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.6%−0.571% to convertField goal97.0%62% to makePunt95.9%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 13:50BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:32BUF Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call80.7%97% to makeGo for two80.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT18 plays · 11 yds · 12:2420% → 27%
BUFDrive 2DOWNS7 plays · 40 yds · 9:4178% → 75%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+13
25.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 13 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 8:4122% → 27%
Q1 8:41
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
21.8%
Ethan Slike punt for 42 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 6:3577% → 74%
AKRDrive 5Uncategorized4 plays · 17 yds · 4:2525% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FG4 plays · 2 yds · 3:4376% → 76%
Q1 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
23.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds to the Akron 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4524% → 25%
Q1 0:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
24.3%
Ethan Slike punt for 34 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD5 plays · 60 yds · 15:0076% → 81%
AKRDrive 9TD1 play · 74 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10FG14 plays · 65 yds · 6:5726% → 29%
BUFDrive 11TD7 plays · 75 yds · 4:3281% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
16.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 36 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Dominic Johnson) to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 0:5883% → 83%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
17.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
18.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
17.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
16.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 26 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3919% → 19%
BUFDrive 14TD9 plays · 73 yds · 12:1384% → 90%
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+22
16.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 22 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
15.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+9
11.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 9 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15Uncategorized2 plays · -4 yds · 10:1818% → 15%
BUFDrive 16TD3 plays · 8 yds · 9:2085% → 90%
AKRDrive 17INT6 plays · 23 yds · 7:2819% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD3 plays · 47 yds · 6:1886% → 90%
AKRDrive 19FUMBLE10 plays · 70 yds · 1:3919% → 19%
Q3 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
19.2%
DJ Irons run for 5 yds to the Buff 20 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by AkronSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
16.8%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Oran Singleton Jr. for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, illegal use of hands (Daymond Williams) to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
17.6%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 22 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 15:0088% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 10:4113% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 31 yds · 8:1493% → 97%
AKRDrive 23DOWNS10 plays · 14 yds · 5:3713% → 6%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
12.8%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield, broken up by Mark Davis Jr.Similar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+10
9.1%
DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 23 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Dolac) to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
5.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Andre Williams for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+6
5.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:32
Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-9.7
FG · Q2 6:57
Cory Smigel 35 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-3.2