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WMU

Western Michigan 15 at Toledo 34

TOL
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Lucas Hartings run for 13 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:46: Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +8.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:36: Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) — WMU win probability +15.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:08: Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +15.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:48: Sean Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +18.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:54: Micah Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +11.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:16TOL 4th & 9 at WMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56TOL 4th & 5 at WMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:17WMU 4th & 8 at TOL 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:12WMU 4th & 5 at TOL 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:57TOL 4th & 9 at WMU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:25WMU 4th & 9 at TOL 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:01TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:36WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−6.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:08TOL 4th & 14 at WMU 34, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:39WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:14WMU 4th & 8 at TOL 31, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:16TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 35, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:33WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:52TOL 4th & 9 at WMU 45, up 19
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:46TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:20WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:36WMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:08TOL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:48TOL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:54TOL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 14:5545% → 51%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
45.4%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
45.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
45.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
45.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
45.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
45.9%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 4Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
49.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 15 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
50.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the WMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0754% → 54%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
45.9%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 2
OWN 12
0
45.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
46.0%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 12Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+32
46.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 32 yds to the WMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1347% → 47%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
46.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 14
OPP 20
0
46.5%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+9
46.3%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the WMich 11Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
47.1%
Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:3953% → 52%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Wesley French) to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
46.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
47.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for no gain to the WMich 22Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+37
47.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 37 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
46.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
46.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
46.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
48.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:3748% → 48%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
48.0%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
48.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.1%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
48.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
48.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
48.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
48.0%
Dequan Finn sacked by Marshawn Kneeland and Ralph Holley for 0 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
47.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2852% → 50%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
48.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
48.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-1
49.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
49.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:1551% → 55%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
50.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
50.5%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
51.2%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
51.1%
Dequan Finn sacked by Ali Fayad for 0 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 19
OWN 47
+19
49.8%
Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
51.6%
Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
51.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
51.6%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the WMich 10Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-5
52.3%
FINN, Dequan pass to the left complete for 10 yards to WINSTEAD, Isaiah caught at the WMU0 and advanced to the WMU0, TOUCHDOWN TOL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WMU10 to the WMU15. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
52.2%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
54.5%
Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:3246% → 46%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.2%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
53.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 26 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
52.5%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
52.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
51.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+27
52.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 27 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
51.8%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
51.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ali Fayad) to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
51.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
55.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the Toled 9Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
53.6%
Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3954% → 64%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
53.5%
Micah Kelly run for 22 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
55.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Braden Fiske) to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
63.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:2136% → 43%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
63.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
63.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
63.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 20 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
61.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
61.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
60.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+1
60.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
61.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 4 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
60.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
60.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
57.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1358% → 57%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
58.2%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
58.0%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
57.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
56.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:2541% → 58%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
59.0%
Sean Tyler run for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+39
57.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 39 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.5%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1448% → 48%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
48.3%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
48.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
48.3%
Dequan Finn sacked by Zaire Barnes for 0 yards to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14MISSED FG
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0852% → 52%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
51.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+50
51.9%
Thomas Cluckey 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 4:2154% → 52%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
45.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
46.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+15
47.1%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for TORRES, Anthony thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MITCHELL, Quinyon enforced 15 yards to the WMU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
45.2%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
45.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+14
46.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 14 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
43.5%
ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU44 (JOHNSON, Desjuan). PENALTY WMU Holding on FRENCH, Wesley enforced 10 yards from the WMU41 to the WMU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+5
45.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+3
45.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-10
45.7%
QB Keeper ELEBY, Kaleb rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the TOL48 (WOMACK, Samuel;HOOK, Maxen). PENALTY WMU Holding on JEFFERSON, La'Darius enforced 10 yards from the WMU39 to the WMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+5
47.1%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
47.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:2847% → 63%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.7%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
46.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
44.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
47.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
50.5%
Bryant Koback run for 24 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
52.6%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
50.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ROSI, Drew ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
47.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+34
63.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:2039% → 22%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
59.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
77.7%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:0921% → 21%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 4 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
76.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
77.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
79.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4583% → 97%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
83.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
83.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
83.2%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+8
83.2%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
83.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+2
86.5%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+20
86.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.1%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:408% → 6%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
92.7%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
92.6%
Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
92.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Desjuan enforced (Dyontae Johnson) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
93.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
93.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
93.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
94.0%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Judge Culpepper for 0 yards to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5898% → 99%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
98.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+1
98.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
98.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:435% → 4%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
95.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 17 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
95.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
94.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
94.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
94.9%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Desjuan Johnson for 0 yards to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 44 yds · 7:4199% → 100%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
99.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-5
98.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+9
99.0%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
98.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zaire Barnes) to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+2
99.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+6
99.0%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
98.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+15
99.0%
STUART, Jacquez rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL35 (CARTER, Andre). PENALTY WMU Face mask on CARTER, Andre enforced 15 yards from the TOL39 to the WMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.0%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
99.0%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-2
99.6%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
98.2%
Lucas Hartings run for 12 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
98.2%
Lucas Hartings run for 13 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:48
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+18.7
TD · Q3 8:08
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 1:36
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com