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BGSU

Bowling Green 26 at Northern Illinois 34

NIU
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameTD-8.7NIU 84.9%Austin Osborne 36 Yd pass from MattMcDonald (Nate Needham Kick)AWAY 26 - HOME 34 · Q4 6:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:25 · Austin Osborne 36 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+2.7Home team on offense+12.7Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Blowout margin+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:59: Christian Sims run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:13: Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +5.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:56: Mason Blakemore run for 17 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +5.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:37: Trayvon Rudolph 100 Yd Kickoff Return (John Richardson Kick) — NIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:25: Austin Osborne 36 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick) — BGSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:19BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:13NIU 4th & 3 at BGSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−6.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:41BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:51BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:54NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:50BGSU 4th & 5 at NIU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    19.3%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:32BGSU 4th & 7 at NIU 39, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%
    36% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07BGSU 4th & 15 at NIU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 2 at BGSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:39NIU 4th & 5 at BGSU 5, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    78.0%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:09BGSU 4th & 9 at NIU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:21BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 10, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:45NIU 4th & 11 at BGSU 11, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:02BGSU 4th & 12 at NIU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24NIU 4th & 2 at BGSU 39, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−1.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:26NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:11BGSU 4th & 17 at NIU 48, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:02NIU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:59BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:13NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:56NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:37NIU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:25BGSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:4126% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.2%
Taron Keith run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Taron KeithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
74.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
74.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
74.2%
Taron Keith run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
74.2%
Taron Keith run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
74.2%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Grant,Jalen) 5 yards from NIU48 to BGS47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
74.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt McDonald) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
73.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:1773% → 73%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
73.4%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+1
73.4%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+2
73.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
73.4%
Trayvon Rudolph run for 5 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
73.5%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
73.4%
Clint Ratkovich run for 6 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36 Antario Brown fumbled, forced by Jalen Burton, recovered by BwGrn Jordan AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 3:0328% → 32%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
72.0%
Jamal Johnson run for 11 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
71.8%
Taron Keith run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+8
71.8%
Terion Stewart run for 8 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
71.8%
Taron Keith run for 7 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
71.8%
Taron Keith run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
67.6%
Christian Sims run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:4169% → 72%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
68.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
69.5%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
69.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
69.6%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+10
69.6%
Clint Ratkovich run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
70.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Mohamed Toure for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
70.1%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
70.1%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
67.5%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
67.5%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2930% → 30%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
69.8%
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
69.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 6 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
69.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+6
69.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:4571% → 78%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
71.1%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
71.7%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.6%
PENALTY BGS Offside (Brooks,Karl) 5 yards from NIU39 to NIU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+28
72.3%
Jay Ducker run for 28 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
73.0%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
73.0%
Mason Blakemore run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
78.1%
Mason Blakemore run for 17 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5824% → 23%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
76.3%
Taron Keith run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
76.7%
McDonald,Matt pass incomplete to Broden,Tyrone PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from BGS27 to BGS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.7%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jhaylin EmbrySimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
75.9%
Taron Keith run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
75.7%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
77.1%
Matt Naranjo punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5777% → 76%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
77.1%
Jay Ducker run for 13 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
77.4%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
78.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
76.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
76.1%
Matt Ference punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1723% → 27%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
76.8%
Taron Keith run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
76.2%
Terion Stewart run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+9
75.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 9 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+44
75.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 44 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
73.9%
Taron Keith run for 3 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Javonte KinseySimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
75.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jaedyn McKinstrySimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
71.0%
Nate Needham 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
72.8%
Richardson,John kickoff 45 yards to the BGS20 Patterson,Jaison return 0 yards to the BGS20, End Of Play PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 28 yds · 1:2318% → 15%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
81.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
50
+8
80.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 8 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.8%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
81.1%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Murphy,Jordan) 5 yards from NIU42 to NIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
81.8%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Taron KeithSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+8
82.3%
Matt McDonald run for 8 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+13
83.0%
Matt McDonald run for 13 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
80.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Andrew BenchSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
80.7%
run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
84.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+49
84.6%
Nate Needham 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 7:2183% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.6%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
83.4%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
83.4%
PENALTY BGS Offside (Hawkins,Anthony) 5 yards from NIU46 to BGS49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+10
83.5%
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
83.5%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
83.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+11
82.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 11 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+3
82.2%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
83.6%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
83.5%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
83.5%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
83.5%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
83.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
84.6%
John Richardson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:3017% → 17%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+49
83.5%
Matt McDonald run for 49 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.1%
Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+4
81.0%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
81.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
83.5%
Nate Needham 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5386% → 88%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
86.3%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
86.9%
Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
86.9%
Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
86.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
87.9%
Trayvon Rudolph 20 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (John Richardson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:509% → 8%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
91.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
91.2%
Terion Stewart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 10
0
90.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 8
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Matt Naranjo punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3694% → 96%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
94.0%
Mason Blakemore run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
94.1%
Mason Blakemore run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+16
94.1%
Tyrice Richie run for 16 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
94.3%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
94.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles JoinerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
94.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
95.6%
John Richardson 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:385% → 8%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+54
94.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 54 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
93.2%
Taron Keith run for 2 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
93.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
94.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
91.8%
Nate Needham 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 3:3195% → 96%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
94.5%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+34
94.3%
Jay Ducker run for 34 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
95.1%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+3
95.1%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+4
94.9%
Clint Ratkovich run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
95.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 1 yd to the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:596% → 15%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
93.8%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
93.9%
Matt McDonald run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
93.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 9 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+6
93.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 6 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
84.9%
Austin Osborne 36 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:5191% → 93%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
90.9%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-5
90.7%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU30 to NIU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+1
90.3%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+6
93.1%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1513% → 7%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
87.5%
Jhaylin Embry run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+10
85.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 10 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
86.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Austin OsborneSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
86.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-7
87.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by James Ester for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
92.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jhaylin EmbrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0996% → 97%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
95.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+1
96.1%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+6
95.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 8
50
0
97.1%
Rocky Lombardi punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:025% → 6%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
95.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 18 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
94.7%
McDonald,Matt pass complete to Keith,Taron for 3 yards to the BGS41 (Thomas,Dillon) PENALTY BGS Holding 10 yards from BGS38 to BGS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+12
95.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Levi Gazarek for 12 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
94.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 6 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
94.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jhaylin Embry for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:37
Trayvon Rudolph 100 Yd Kickoff Return (John Richardson Kick)
+9.6
TD · Q4 6:25
Austin Osborne 36 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
-8.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com