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NIU

Northern Illinois 22 at Toledo 20

TOL
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:30 · Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore differential
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.7Score differential−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:55: Bryant Koback run for 40 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +10.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:25: Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 75 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +9.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:36: Antario Brown run for 37 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +12.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:35: Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TOL win probability +7.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:26: John Richardson 29 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +48.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:33NIU 4th & 19 at TOL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:34NIU 4th & 6 at TOL 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:05TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−0.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14NIU 4th & 4 at TOL 8, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45NIU 4th & 5 at TOL 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:30TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:30TOL 4th & 8 at NIU 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    66.5%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:15TOL 4th & 10 at NIU 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:45NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:58TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−2.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.6%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:28NIU 4th & 17 at NIU 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−7.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:35TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−1.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−2.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:19NIU 4th & 10 at TOL 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−4.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−13.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26NIU 4th & 11 at TOL 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−31.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−49.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 4:55TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:25TOL Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36NIU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:2717% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.7%
Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
82.7%
Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
82.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
82.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+8
82.7%
Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+22
82.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 22 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
82.7%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-10
82.7%
Brown,Antario rush for 0 yards to the TOL15 (Barrow,Jackson; Jones,Jonathan) PENALTY NIU Holding (Cox,Marques) 10 yards from TOL15 to TOL25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 25
0
82.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 25
0
82.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+43
81.4%
John Richardson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0581% → 81%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
81.4%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game (Bradley,Carter) 5 yards from TOL37 to TOL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+1
81.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+2
81.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+12
81.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
80.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:4920% → 24%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
80.1%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+14
80.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 14 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
80.1%
Lombardi,Rocky pass complete to McCray,Fabian for 3 yards to the TOL35 (Anderson,Tycen) PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TOL38 to TOL33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
79.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Mohamed Toure for 14 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
79.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+7
79.0%
Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
79.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.6%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
77.9%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Cox,Marques) 5 yards from TOL01 to TOL06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
76.4%
John Richardson 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2977% → 75%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
77.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
77.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
76.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+23
75.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 23 yds to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:2825% → 26%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
74.8%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
74.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 7 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0075% → 73%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
75.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
75.7%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
75.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
75.5%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
75.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
75.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
73.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 7:2327% → 36%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
73.0%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
72.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+28
73.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 28 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
71.7%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+17
71.5%
Jay Ducker run for 17 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
71.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
71.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+10
71.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 10 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
72.3%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
71.3%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
71.3%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+3
71.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
64.4%
John Richardson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:1966% → 79%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
66.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 6 yds to the Toled 31 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
66.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 21 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
67.9%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Mitchell,Bryce PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Gandy,Jordan) 15 yards from TOL45 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
78.7%
Bryant Koback run for 40 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1025% → 31%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.2%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+32
74.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 17 yds to the TOLEDO 45 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Nate Bauer) to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
72.9%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+1
72.6%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
73.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
68.6%
John Richardson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2070% → 80%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
79.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 75 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4920% → 36%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
79.9%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
80.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
77.8%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
76.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
63.7%
Antario Brown run for 37 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:3666% → 66%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.2%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
65.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:2369% → 68%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
68.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+14
68.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
71.0%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Winstead,Isaiah PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Gandy,Jordan) 15 yards from TOL45 to NIU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
71.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+1
71.8%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
71.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
67.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
67.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1637% → 34%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.5%
Tyrice Richie run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
63.7%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
65.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+30
65.6%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 30 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:5968% → 73%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
68.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
69.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
70.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
68.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
72.8%
Thomas Cluckey 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3028% → 27%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
72.3%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
71.9%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
72.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
73.4%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:4773% → 70%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
72.7%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
73.3%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
72.8%
Micah Kelly run for 10 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
74.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
73.7%
Bradley,Carter pass complete to Koback,Bryant for 8 yards to the TOL49 (Deveaux,Lance) PENALTY TOL Holding (Harris,Bryce) 10 yards from TOL41 to TOL31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+10
72.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+6
69.6%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds , Tyrice Richie returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
15 plays · 20 yds · 6:3029% → 29%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
71.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+7
71.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-3
72.1%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Fabian McCray) to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
71.1%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
71.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 12 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
70.6%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
70.1%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+2
68.2%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+2
69.8%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
66.7%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
68.3%
Lombardi,Rocky pass complete to Travis,Messiah for 6 yards to the NIU44 (Clark,Justin; Hook,Maxen) PENALTY NIU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richie,Tyrice) 5 yards from NIU38 to NIU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
69.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
71.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
71.0%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5371% → 72%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+31
71.1%
Bryant Koback run for 31 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
74.8%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+3
74.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
74.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+2
71.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:1634% → 36%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
65.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
63.3%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
63.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
62.4%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY NIU Holding (Zschernitz,Logan) 10 yards from TOL40 to TOL50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 20
50
+1
64.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
65.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+20
66.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 20 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
60.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
61.0%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+2
64.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
63.6%
John Richardson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4469% → 76%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+46
69.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Drew Rosi for 46 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
75.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
75.5%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-10
73.2%
Finn,Dequan pass complete to Newton,Jerjuan for 22 yards to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:19 PENALTY TOL Holding (Gurman,Vitaliy) 10 yards from NIU22 to NIU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 18
OPP 32
+6
70.5%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+15
68.3%
Finn,Dequan pass incomplete to Newton,Jerjuan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Byrd,JaVaughn) 15 yards from NIU26 to NIU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 3:0237% → 92%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
63.0%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
63.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+6
63.6%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.8%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
58.5%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Womack,Samuel) 15 yards from NIU44 to TOL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+34
57.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 34 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
59.0%
Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
52.9%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
57.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
8.1%
John Richardson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2620% → 14%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
20.1%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Gurman,Vitaliy) 5 yards from TOL25 to TOL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
19.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 10 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
14.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:26
John Richardson 29 yd FG GOOD
-48.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.1
TD · Q2 0:36
Antario Brown run for 37 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)
-12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com