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WMU

Western Michigan 24 at Buffalo 17

BUF
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:19 · Jackson Baltar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense−14.3Garbage-time factor−8.3Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:57: Alex McNulty 37 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +7.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 10:57: Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +8.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:34: Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 64 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK) — WMU win probability +30.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:17: Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +21.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:17: Timeout BUFFALO, clock 01:17 — WMU win probability +22.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:38WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00BUF 4th & 16 at WMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22WMU 4th & 3 at BUF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:50WMU 4th & 7 at BUF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:26WMU 4th & 1 at BUF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−2.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:30WMU 4th & 2 at BUF 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−7.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:57BUF 4th & 7 at WMU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:30WMU 4th & 11 at BUF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−9.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:31BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−5.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:15WMU 4th & 13 at BUF 36, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:03BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 5 at BUF 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:57WMU 4th & 9 at BUF 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−15.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:52BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:19BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:40WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:12BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:34WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:30WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:17BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−2.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1671% → 71%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
28.7%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
28.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
28.7%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
29.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 38 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 3 yds to the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
15 plays · 33 yds · 3:3829% → 31%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
29.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 7 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
29.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
29.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
29.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
50
0
29.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
50
+7
29.4%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+8
29.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
29.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
29.4%
MCDUFFIE, Dylan rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the WMU29 (BARNES, Zaire;MOERTL, Jake). PENALTY WMU Offsides on FAYAD, Ali enforced 5 yards from the WMU35 to the WMU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
29.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-10
29.4%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Dominic broken up by JACKSON, Dorian at the WMU20. PENALTY BUF Holding on DOIRON, Deondre enforced 10 yards from the WMU31 to the WMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 16
OPP 41
0
29.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-10
29.4%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Dominic broken up by JACKSON, Dorian at the WMU20. PENALTY BUF Holding on DOIRON, Deondre enforced 10 yards from the WMU31 to the WMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 16
OPP 41
0
29.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
30.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
19 plays · 95 yds · 8:2069% → 72%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
31.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 7Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
31.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+7
31.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+23
30.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 23 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
30.6%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
30.5%
Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
30.4%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
30.4%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
30.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
32.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
32.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+19
32.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 19 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
31.7%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.7%
TYLER, Sean rush up the middle for no gain to the BUF6 (PATTERSON, James;RIGGINS, Taylor). PENALTY BUF Face mask on MICHEL, Max enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the BUF6 to the BUF3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
31.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 12Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
31.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 12Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
28.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds for a TD (Parker Sampson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:2830% → 36%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
29.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
36.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 55 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 4:1166% → 65%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.2%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
33.9%
ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU31 (PATTERSON, James). PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in the Back on CALIENDO, Mike enforced 10 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+18
34.3%
Sean Tyler run for 18 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
33.9%
ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU31 (PATTERSON, James). PENALTY WMU Illegal Block in the Back on CALIENDO, Mike enforced 10 yards from the WMU28 to the WMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+18
34.3%
Sean Tyler run for 18 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
34.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 15 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
33.2%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass up the middle incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen broken up by HUDGENS, Logic at the BUF0. PENALTY BUF Holding enforced 10 yards from the BUF49 to the BUF39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
32.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
32.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
32.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
32.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
32.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
35.1%
Parker Sampson 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 50 yds · 7:3637% → 43%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
37.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
37.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+13
36.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
38.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 40 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
39.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
39.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
40.5%
Kyle Vantrease sacked for 0 yards to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
43.4%
Kyle Vantrease sacked for 0 yards to the WMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7DOWNS
19 plays · 52 yds · 8:4964% → 64%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
36.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
36.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+16
36.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
50
+7
34.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
34.0%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
34.4%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
35.8%
Kaleb Eleby run for 3 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
34.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
34.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
34.9%
Kaleb Eleby run for 10 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
33.4%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Skyy thrown to the BUF18. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on INGRAM, Ja'Marcus enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the BUF16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
33.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
33.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
33.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
34.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.4%
Kaleb Eleby sacked for 0 yards to the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:0343% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
43.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
43.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+7
43.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
44.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 7 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
46.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 10 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.7%
Jake Molinich run for no gain to the WMich 44 fumbled, recovered by Buff Kyle VantreaseSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
46.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
47.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+6
47.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
47.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the WMich 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
47.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-3
46.2%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 15 fumbled, recovered by Buff Matt MyersSimilar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+37
53.4%
Alex McNulty 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:2749% → 47%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
48.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 11 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
47.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
48.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+8
47.3%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
46.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 14 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
45.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
45.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
47.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
53.3%
Parker Sampson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5955% → 53%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
55.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-6
54.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 17
OWN 19
+2
52.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
52.6%
Jackson Baltar punt for 12 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1651% → 41%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
49.1%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
48.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
52.9%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Daymond Williams for 0 yards to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
59.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1259% → 59%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
59.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
60.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
58.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:0641% → 53%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
59.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
57.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 20 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
54.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
54.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
52.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
56.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
57.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+10
58.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 10 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+7
57.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 7 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
52.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 14 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.6%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Max Michel for 0 yards to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
54.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 5 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
46.6%
Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0055% → 49%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
54.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
53.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
51.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
51.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 50 yds , Bryce Nunnelly returns for no gain to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
49.2%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the right incomplete intended for MOORE, Skyy broken up by WRIGHT, Kadofi at the WMU21. PENALTY BUF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WRIGHT, Kadofi enforced 15 yards from the WMU21 to the WMU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
18.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 64 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1326% → 22%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
25.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-3
26.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
24.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
22.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:4981% → 99%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
18.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
17.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+17
17.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 17 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
16.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+8
15.5%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
11.9%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+5
11.9%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
9.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
8.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+6
8.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:133% → 26%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
2.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
2.7%
Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
2.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 37 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
3.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 13 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
4.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:34
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 64 yds for a TD (Nick Mihalic KICK)
-30.6
TD · Q4 1:17
Timeout BUFFALO, clock 01:17
-22.2
TD · Q4 1:17
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com