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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:45 · Jonah Wieland punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Defense timeoutsOffense timeoutsPregame priorHome team on offenseTwo-minute warningTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:12: Konata Mumpfield 45 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +11.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Isiah Cox 2 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Tristian Vandenberg Kick) — OHIO win probability +4.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 8:34: Tristian Brank 9 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +14.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q3 5:41: Armani Rogers 7 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick) — OHIO win probability +17.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · Q4 6:12: Armani Rogers 22 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick) — AKR win probability +9.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:44OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it70.9%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.1%average punt
- Q1 9:45OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it69.3%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.4%average punt
- Q1 7:51AKR 4th & 9 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.1%average punt
- Q1 4:44OHIO 4th & 7 at AKR 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snapGo for it67.6%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call67.7%90% to makePunt66.2%−1.5average punt
- Q1 3:10AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 34, tiedClose callPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it33.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 12:37OHIO 4th & 19 at OHIO 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snapGo for it63.1%−1.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.4%average punt
- Q2 6:08AKR 4th & 6 at OHIO 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snapGo for it39.8%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call40.0%91% to makePunt34.6%−5.4average punt
- Q2 1:47OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it45.6%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.3%average punt
- Q2 0:59AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snapGo for it49.9%−1.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q3 2:14AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it43.4%−4.027% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q4 13:30OHIO 4th & 5 at AKR 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snapGo for it54.3%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call54.4%90% to makePunt38.4%−16.0average punt
- Q4 11:01AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it33.2%−1.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.1%average punt
- Q4 3:01AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.2%37% to convertField goal30.7%−0.532% to makePunt25.6%−5.6average punt
- Q4 0:00AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%30% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:00AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 33, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.1%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 3:12AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.3%97% to makeGo for two50.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.1%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:34AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:41OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.6%97% to makeGo for two50.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1PUNT18 plays · 8 yds · 12:4478% → 83%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
17.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 33 Kurtis Rourke fumbled, recovered by Ohio Kurtis RourkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 44 yds · 11:1522% → 19%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Ohio Justin BirchetteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+18
18.3%
DJ Irons run for 3 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, personal foul (Jeremiah Wood) to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
18.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 21 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 9:4579% → 82%
AKRDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 7:5120% → 18%
Q1 7:51
4TH & 9
50
+10
20.0%
Ethan Slike punt for 47 yds , Ty Walton returns for 10 yds to the Ohio 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
18.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 7 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
18.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 7 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5FG10 plays · 79 yds · 6:1981% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 3:1018% → 17%
OHIODrive 7PUNT19 plays · 34 yds · 16:5482% → 90%
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
17.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 7 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-4
9.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8FG9 plays · 81 yds · 7:3320% → 12%
OHIODrive 9INT4 plays · 24 yds · 4:2886% → 91%
AKRDrive 10TD3 plays · 55 yds · 3:1220% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
14.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 7 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4784% → 82%
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+5
16.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 49 yds , Konata Mumpfield returns for 5 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
17.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 2 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner, broken up by Nicholas MayleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5914% → 13%
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+5
13.6%
Ethan Slike punt for 42 yds , Ty Walton returns for 5 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
13.5%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield, broken up by Will EvansSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+8
12.8%
DJ Irons run for 8 yds to the Akron 28 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (Alex Robarge) to the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:0992% → 91%
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.3%
Isiah Cox 2 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Tristian Vandenberg Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
9.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to O'Shaan Allison for 8 yds to the Ohio 43Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+34
8.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ty Walton for 34 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD10 plays · 70 yds · 8:3423% → 30%
OHIODrive 15TD5 plays · 75 yds · 5:4188% → 87%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-15
12.6%
OHIO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1415% → 16%
Q3 2:14
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+3
15.4%
Ethan Slike punt for 46 yds , Jerome Buckner returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17FG9 plays · 56 yds · 15:0086% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-15
12.6%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Cameron Odom for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
1.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner, broken up by Jaylen Kelly-PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 11 yds · 11:0114% → 3%
OHIODrive 19TD9 plays · 75 yds · 6:1287% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 34 yds · 3:0126% → 1%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
1.0%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the Akron 26 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (Xavior Gray) to the Akron 26Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
0.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 13 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
1.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 17 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21TD5 plays · 59 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22Uncategorized6 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
0.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 7 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:41
Armani Rogers 7 Yd Run (Stephen Johnson Kick)
-17.5
TD · Q3 8:34
Tristian Brank 9 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Cory Smigel Kick)
+14.3
TD · Q2 3:12
Konata Mumpfield 45 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Cory Smigel Kick)
+11.1