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ME

Maine 14 at Northern Illinois 41

NIU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:16 · David Gelb punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+3.3Home team on offense+14.6Garbage-time factor+4.9Score differential+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:24: Freddie Brock run for 28 yds for a TD (Jonny Messina KICK) — ME win probability +2.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:55: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 22 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +1.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:52: Elijah Barnwell run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonny Messina KICK) — ME win probability +4.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:31: Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:26: Jonny Messina 23 yd FG MISSED — ME win probability +4.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ME made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:03ME 4th & 10 at ME 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:20NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:47ME 4th & 1 at ME 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:47NIU 4th & 1 at ME 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:25ME 4th & 4 at ME 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:18ME 4th & 1 at NIU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−3.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:13NIU 4th & 9 at ME 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:23ME 4th & 1 at ME 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:26ME 4th & 6 at NIU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−6.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:09NIU 4th & 7 at ME 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:00ME 4th & 9 at ME 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:08ME 4th & 10 at ME 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:54NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:16ME 4th & 3 at ME 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:00NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ME made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:20NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:24ME Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:52ME Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:31NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3693% → 93%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
93.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
93.1%
PENALTY MAI Offside 5 yards from NIU33 to NIU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+3
93.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+17
93.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 17 yds to the Maine 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
93.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 6 yds to the Maine 36Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+7
93.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the Maine 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.1%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the Maine 29Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+19
93.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 19 yds to the Maine 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
93.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Maine 7Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:178% → 8%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Zavier ScottSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
David Gelb punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1092% → 92%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
92.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
92.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
92.4%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Potter,Nolan) 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+4
92.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
92.0%
Matt Ference punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:298% → 11%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
92.0%
Freddie Brock run for 5 yds to the Maine 6Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+10
92.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 10 yds to the Maine 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
92.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Andre Miller for 12 yds to the Maine 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.0%
Derek Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
92.1%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
92.1%
PENALTY NIU Offside (Kennedy,Michael) 5 yards from MAI31 to MAI36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+18
92.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Andre Miller for 18 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
91.8%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 14
50
+22
92.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 22 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.7%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
89.1%
Freddie Brock run for 28 yds for a TD (Jonny Messina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:2390% → 91%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
89.6%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
89.6%
Clint Ratkovich run for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+14
89.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
89.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 23 yds to the Maine 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
90.2%
Clint Ratkovich run for 8 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+20
90.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 20 yds to the Maine 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
89.4%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Maine 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+22
91.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 22 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:5710% → 15%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
90.4%
Elijah Barnwell run for 9 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+1
90.0%
Elijah Barnwell run for 1 yd to the Maine 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
90.2%
Zavier Scott run for 4 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+10
90.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Andre Miller for 10 yds to the Maine 45Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
90.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 8 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+33
89.9%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Andre Miller for 33 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
89.5%
Elijah Barnwell run for 10 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.0%
Elijah Barnwell run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonny Messina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3287% → 86%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
86.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
85.8%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Hennie at the Maine 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3315% → 16%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
85.1%
Elijah Barnwell run for 5 yds to the Maine 36Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
84.6%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
85.2%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Shawn Bowman for 4 yds to the Maine 40Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+6
83.8%
David Gelb punt for 45 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 6 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:1685% → 90%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
85.4%
Richie,Tyrice rush for 1 yard loss to the NIU20 (Manns,Khairi) PENALTY MAI Face Mask (Manns,Khairi) 15 yards from NIU21 to NIU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
85.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 13 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
86.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 18 yds to the Maine 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 16 yds to the Maine 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
87.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the Maine 9Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
86.5%
Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the Maine 8Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+1
86.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Maine 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5812% → 11%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.9%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.1%
Freddie Brock run for 6 yds to the Maine 42Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
88.0%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Shawn BowmanSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
88.8%
David Gelb punt for 44 yds , Cole Tucker returns for no gain to the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11INT
11 plays · 54 yds · 2:5489% → 89%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
88.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+13
88.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 13 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
88.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
89.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
89.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the Maine 46Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-15
89.8%
PENALTY NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zschernitz,Logan) 15 yards from MAI46 to NIU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+15
89.1%
Lombardi,Rocky pass incomplete to Travis,Messiah PENALTY MAI Pass Interference (Pewee Jr.,Kolubah) 15 yards from NIU39 to MAI46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
89.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 12 yds to the Maine 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
89.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Maine 33Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
88.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.9%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Freddie Brock for no gain to the Maine 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3613% → 14%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
87.2%
Freddie Brock run for 9 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
86.4%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the Maine 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
86.3%
Freddie Brock run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
86.1%
Freddie Brock run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
86.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
86.1%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:0588% → 90%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
88.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 15 yds to the Maine 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
88.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 13 yds to the Maine 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
88.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 21 yds to the Maine 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
88.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the Maine 4Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
89.3%
Ratkovich,Clint rush for 4 yards gain to the MAI00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:55 PENALTY NIU Holding (Potter,Nolan) 10 yards from MAI04 to MAI14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
89.1%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Maine 9Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon RudolphSimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
89.6%
John Richardson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5011% → 9%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the Maine 26Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
89.5%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the Maine 33Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.3%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the Maine 34Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.7%
David Gelb punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:0490% → 91%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
90.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 5 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+14
90.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
90.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
90.6%
Clint Ratkovich run for 9 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
91.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 8 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5312% → 16%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
88.2%
Freddie Brock run for 6 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+4
88.2%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.2%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Shawn BowmanSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.2%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
84.3%
Jonny Messina 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:1787% → 89%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
86.9%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Soraghan,Liam) 5 yards from NIU22 to NIU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+14
86.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
87.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-10
86.9%
Waylee,Harrison rush for 11 yards gain to the NIU41 (Bazzie,Fofie) PENALTY NIU Holding (Cox,Marques) 10 yards from NIU30 to NIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+3
86.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+66
86.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 66 yds to the Maine 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
91.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Maine 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
90.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
89.3%
John Richardson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0113% → 13%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
87.4%
Tavion Banks run for 3 yds to the Maine 26Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+22
87.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 22 yds to the Maine 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
85.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
86.1%
Freddie Brock run for 7 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-15
85.1%
Robertson,Derek pass complete to Miller,Andre for 4 yards to the NIU41 (Gandy,Jordan) PENALTY MAI Pass Interference (Miller,Andre) 15 yards from NIU45 to MAI40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+9
87.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 9 yds to the Maine 49Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
87.3%
David Gelb punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2689% → 91%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
89.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
90.0%
Clint Ratkovich run for 7 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
90.6%
Rocky Lombardi run for 64 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2613% → 11%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Freddie Brock run for 1 yd to the Maine 26Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
86.9%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Devin Young for 1 yd to the Maine 25Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Andre MillerSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
David Gelb punt for 75 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1490% → 91%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
90.1%
Clint Ratkovich run for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
90.2%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
90.1%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
91.0%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds , Jacob Hennie returns for no gain to the Maine 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0793% → 93%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
93.3%
PENALTY MAI UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Manns,Khairi) 15 yards from MAI33 to MAI18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
93.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 18 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:2611% → 11%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Andre Miller for 14 yds to the Maine 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
87.2%
John Gay run for 4 yds to the Maine 43Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
86.6%
John Gay run for 3 yds to the Maine 46Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
86.9%
John Gay run for no gain to the Maine 46Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
89.1%
David Gelb punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1694% → 95%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
93.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
93.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+2
93.3%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Matt Ference punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob Hennie at the Maine 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:0011% → 11%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.2%
Jordan Rowell run for 2 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
88.8%
Jordan Rowell run for 3 yds to the Maine 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+11.2
TD · Q2 10:52
Elijah Barnwell run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonny Messina KICK)
-4.5
FG · Q3 3:26
Jonny Messina 23 yd FG MISSED
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com