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CSU

Colorado State 22 at Toledo 6

TOL
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:34 · Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense+2.1Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:00: Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +3.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 8:30: Cayden Camper 42 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:12: Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +4.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:45: Cayden Camper 29 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:25: Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 13 of 15CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 12:51TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:50CSU 4th & 4 at TOL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:37CSU 4th & 1 at TOL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:15CSU 4th & 7 at TOL 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:33TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:31CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:12TOL 4th & 2 at CSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−3.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:04CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 35, up 3
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:45TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 7:45TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q2 6:00TOL 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q2 3:44CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:34TOL 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 13:40CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:55TOL 4th & 3 at CSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−1.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:30CSU 4th & 11 at TOL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−8.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:12TOL 4th & 9 at CSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−10.3
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:38CSU 4th & 11 at TOL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  21. Q3 3:03TOL 4th & 15 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−4.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 14:46TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 11:33CSU 4th & 1 at TOL 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−5.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−5.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 7:45CSU 4th & 5 at TOL 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−11.7
    average punt
  25. Q4 6:55TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 5:25CSU 4th & 5 at TOL 29, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−5.5
    average punt
  27. Q4 4:23TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 2, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  28. Q4 1:00CSU 4th & 6 at TOL 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−2.5
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:0684% → 83%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
83.7%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Dumont,Lavel) 5 yards from TOL14 to TOL09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+3
83.7%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-9
83.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Devin Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 21
OWN 3
+8
83.7%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+7
83.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds , Gerick Robinson returns for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0117% → 17%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
83.0%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
83.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+2
83.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
82.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:1483% → 83%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
82.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 20 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
83.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-5
83.0%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Long,Tyler) 5 yards from TOL48 to TOL43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
82.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
82.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 5:2118% → 20%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
82.5%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
82.4%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
82.4%
PENALTY CSU False Start (McBride,Trey) 5 yards from CSU29 to CSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+4
82.5%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+19
82.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 19 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
82.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 3 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+12
82.4%
Todd Centeio run for 12 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
82.2%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
81.3%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
81.0%
Centeio,Todd pass incomplete to Scott,E.J. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Womack,Samuel) 15 yards from TOL42 to TOL27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
80.9%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 28
0
80.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Ty McCullouchSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+11
81.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
80.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
80.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
81.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to A'Jon VivensSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
80.1%
Cayden Camper 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:4280% → 78%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
80.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
79.7%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
80.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-7
80.1%
Dequan Finn sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
78.4%
Bailey Flint punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0221% → 21%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
79.0%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
78.7%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Keenan BrownSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.9%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
79.1%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+18
78.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 59 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 18 yds to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:4878% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
78.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+8
77.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
78.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jamal Turner for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
78.2%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+39
78.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 39 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
79.5%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
79.5%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+6
79.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+2
77.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0824% → 25%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
75.7%
David Bailey run for 15 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
75.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 16
OWN 22
+11
75.7%
Todd Centeio run for 11 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+2
75.0%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
75.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+8
74.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 52 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 8 yds to the Toled 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1975% → 73%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 5 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
75.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 29
0
74.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
72.8%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4076% → 77%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
76.3%
Bradley,Carter pass complete to Winstead,Isaiah for 25 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:40 PENALTY TOL Holding (Dumont,Lavel) 10 yards from CSU25 to CSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
75.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+2
75.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 18
OPP 33
-5
74.0%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Harris,Bryce) 5 yards from CSU33 to CSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 23
OPP 38
+13
73.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 13 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
76.8%
Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:1626% → 26%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.0%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
73.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
74.1%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.6%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
73.6%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
72.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to A'Jon VivensSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
73.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:1076% → 74%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
76.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
75.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+7
75.4%
Carter Bradley run for 7 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+13
75.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 13 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
76.6%
Bradley,Carter pass incomplete to Mitchell,Bryce PENALTY CSU Pass Interference (Cameron,Marshaun) 15 yards from TOL34 to TOL49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
77.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+7
74.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Matt Landers for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+1
75.0%
Carter Bradley run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 9
50
0
74.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
71.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1630% → 28%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
70.2%
PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game (Centeio,Todd) 5 yards from CSU18 to CSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+3
70.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+4
70.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 4 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
71.4%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 66 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:4573% → 73%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+42
72.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 42 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
75.5%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
75.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
74.8%
Bradley,Carter pass incomplete to Rosi,Drew QB hurried by Kamara,Mohamed PENALTY TOL Personal Foul offsetting CSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+4
74.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
72.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:2532% → 39%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.1%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+29
68.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 29 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
65.0%
E.J. Scott run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
64.7%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
63.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey McBride) to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 18
OPP 31
+8
64.5%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
63.9%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+1
63.8%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
60.8%
Cayden Camper 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1862% → 70%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
61.8%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+26
63.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 26 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
65.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 19 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
67.2%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
67.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
65.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
70.0%
Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:2935% → 35%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+21
64.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
61.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
63.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
65.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3568% → 42%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
67.7%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
67.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
66.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 15Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+70
42.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 55 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 70 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:1745% → 39%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.3%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
46.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
45.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
43.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
47.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 6 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-5
49.4%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Long,Tyler) 5 yards from TOL44 to TOL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
47.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
39.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-5
40.7%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Newton,Jerjuan) 5 yards from TOL46 to TOL41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
38.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:1362% → 70%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
37.7%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+6
36.0%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
36.2%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
34.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+12
35.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
29.0%
Todd Centeio run for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
28.2%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
28.4%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
30.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3539% → 40%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
39.4%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+4
40.1%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1374% → 92%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
25.6%
Justice McCoy pass incomplete to Todd CenteioSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
25.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
26.3%
Todd Centeio run for 11 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
24.6%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
25.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 10 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
24.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
24.5%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Gary WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+2
18.3%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
7.8%
Cayden Camper 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5018% → 16%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
17.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 32 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by Toled Bryant Koback , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
19.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
16.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3094% → 97%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
6.2%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
6.2%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
6.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
2.8%
Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:558% → 7%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
7.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-7
7.6%
Dequan Finn sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 2Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 17
OWN 2
0
7.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 17
OWN 2
0
6.5%
Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thomas Pannunzio at the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:2398% → 99%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
2.2%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+25
2.4%
David Bailey run for 10 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Targeting (Desjuan Johnson) to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
2.2%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+12
1.6%
David Bailey run for 12 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
1.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
1.5%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
1.5%
PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game (Centeio,Todd) 5 yards from TOL08 to TOL13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
1.7%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
1.0%
Cayden Camper 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.0%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
1.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
1.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
1.0%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 7:45
Cayden Camper 29 yd FG GOOD
-10.5
FG · Q3 6:12
Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOOD
+4.5
FG · Q4 5:25
Cayden Camper 47 yd FG GOOD
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com