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CCU

Coastal Carolina 28 at Buffalo 25

BUF
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:03 · Evan Finegan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−20.8Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:45: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 17 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:20: Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +9.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:08: Alex McNulty 36 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +5.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:57: Shermari Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +9.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:41: Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Vantrease pass to Quian Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — BUF win probability +30.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:17BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10CCU 4th & 3 at BUF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20CCU 4th & 4 at CCU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:38BUF 4th & 2 at CCU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07BUF 4th & 4 at CCU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:03CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.1%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:03BUF 4th & 5 at CCU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:08BUF 4th & 3 at CCU 18, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:05CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:12BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:42BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:36BUF 4th & 1 at CCU 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−3.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:26CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:31BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:45CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:20CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:57CCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:41BUF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0517% → 17%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
16.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
16.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-5
16.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kevin Marks Jr.Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
16.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds , D'Jordan Strong returns for no gain to the CCaro 24 BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3883% → 83%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
17.0%
Reese White run for 17 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
17.3%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
17.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
17.7%
Shermari Jones run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+8
17.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 8 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
17.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 7 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+16
17.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 16 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:3018% → 22%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
17.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 9 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
17.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
17.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+18
17.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 18 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
18.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+25
18.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 25 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
19.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
19.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+14
19.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the CCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
19.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the CCaro 2Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5079% → 77%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
21.1%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+9
21.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Greg Latushko for 9 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
21.5%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
21.9%
Shermari Jones run for 7 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-2
21.8%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 35 Grayson McCall fumbled, recovered by CCaroSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
22.7%
Charles Ouverson punt for 49 yds, downed at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 1:1223% → 28%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+61
23.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 18 Kevin Marks Jr. fumbled, recovered by Buff Ron Cook Jr. Ron Cook Jr. run for 61 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
24.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the CCaro 16Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+3
24.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the CCaro 13Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
28.2%
Matt Myers run for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3673% → 77%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron BrownSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
27.7%
Shermari Jones run for 2 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+36
28.6%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 36 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
27.0%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
22.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 17 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:5326% → 28%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
25.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khamran Laborn for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
26.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 12 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
27.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
28.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
28.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
29.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
29.1%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+51
28.1%
Alex McNulty 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 6:3874% → 72%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
26.1%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
26.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 5 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
25.9%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+4
26.0%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.9%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Tyler RobertsSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
25.6%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
25.3%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
25.5%
Shermari Jones run for 19 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
24.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 14 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
24.9%
Reese White run for no gain to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
25.2%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
26.4%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 0
OPP 5
+23
27.6%
Liam Gray 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:3532% → 34%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
32.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+23
32.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 23 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
35.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
35.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-1
36.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
35.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
34.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:5469% → 71%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
30.8%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-6
30.9%
Grayson McCall sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 6Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+19
32.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 19 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.6%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.0%
Shermari Jones run for 17 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-11
28.7%
Grayson McCall sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 11 yards to the CCaro 31 Grayson McCall fumbled, forced by Taylor Riggins, recovered by CCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1668% → 81%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
31.7%
Shermari Jones run for 50 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
28.2%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+10
28.5%
Reese White run for 10 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
29.0%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 5:5523% → 32%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
23.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
25.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
24.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
25.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
25.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 15 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
26.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+11
26.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 11 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
28.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
28.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 6 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+2
27.1%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the CCaro 18Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
32.1%
Alex McNulty 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3871% → 71%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
29.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 19 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
27.0%
Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-4
25.1%
Grayson McCall sacked by C.J. Bazile for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 43Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
29.2%
Charles Ouverson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5331% → 27%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
30.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 14
OWN 22
+4
29.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
29.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
28.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+50
27.3%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 49 yds , Alex Spillum returns for 50 yds to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0577% → 86%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-11
23.4%
Braydon Bennett run for 5 yds to the Buff 20 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-16 Yards) to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 21
OPP 36
+18
25.2%
Shermari Jones run for 18 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
22.9%
Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
23.0%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
23.2%
Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.0%
Shermari Jones run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.6%
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1016% → 13%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
15.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
15.2%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-20
15.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the Buff 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Buff Kyle VantreaseSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 30
OWN 19
+10
14.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Borland for 10 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+10
13.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 10 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
12.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaivon Heiligh at the CCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:2788% → 90%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
12.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 17Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+58
12.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 58 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
10.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 18 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
10.1%
Grayson McCall pass intercepted Logic Hudgens return for 8 yds to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 6:4912% → 41%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
11.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+1
11.7%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+9
10.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
12.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 16 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
12.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
12.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+10
12.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
12.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
12.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
12.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
10.8%
Jake Molinich run for 2 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
13.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 18 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
12.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+9
10.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 9 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
10.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 7Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Vantrease pass to Quian Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19END OF GAME
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:3480% → 94%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.5%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
17.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 22 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
10.6%
Reese White run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 49Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+13
10.8%
Reese White run for 13 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
8.2%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-6
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-4
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:41
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Vantrease pass to Quian Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.7
TD · Q3 12:20
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q4 14:57
Shermari Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Liam Gray KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com