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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBRY aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBRY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:27 · Ethan Gettman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Konata Mumpfield at the Akron 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:22: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jr M Taglieri for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Samperi KICK) — BRY win probability +5.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:21: Fabrice Mukendi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Samperi KICK) — BRY win probability +16.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:28: Anthony Williams Jr. run for 67 yds to the Brynt 15 — BRY win probability +7.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:47: DJ Irons run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +17.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:29: DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BRY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00BRY 4th & 13 at BRY 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q1 11:32AKR 4th & 8 at BRY 42, tiedClose callPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.7%34% to convertField goal81.7%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call81.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:27BRY 4th & 11 at BRY 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q1 3:28BRY 4th & 9 at BRY 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.0%average punt
- Q2 7:22AKR 4th & 1 at BRY 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.0%70% to convertField goal80.4%−1.632% to makePunt80.6%−1.4average punt
- Q2 4:31BRY 4th & 24 at BRY 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it16.0%−1.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q2 0:39AKR 4th & 1 at BRY 3, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.6%63% to convertField goal80.4%−1.293% to makePunt76.0%−5.6average punt
- Q4 14:47BRY 4th & 8 at BRY 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.2%−1.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q4 5:42BRY 4th & 17 at BRY 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BRY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:28AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:23AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.1%97% to makeGo for two85.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:22BRY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:21BRY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.5%97% to makeGo for two30.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:47AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:29AKR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%−0.297% to makeGo for two94.0%45% to convert
- Q4 5:42AKR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBRYDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
82.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Fabrice Mukendi for 7 yds to the Brynt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
82.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jihad Edmond for 6 yds to the Brynt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-10
82.5%
TEAM sacked by Michael Scott and Jeslord Boateng for a loss of 10 yards to the Brynt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+3
82.5%
Ethan Gettman punt for 42 yds , Michael Mathison returns for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
BRYDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4520% → 20%
Q1 7:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-10
80.2%
ECKHAUS, Zevi pass complete to MUKENDI, Fabric for 19 yards to the BRY42 (Durant, Tyson), PENALTY BRY holding 10 yards to the BRY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
80.1%
Ethan Gettman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Konata Mumpfield at the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1080% → 83%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
82.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 38 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
81.7%
ECKHAUS, Zevi pass incomplete to PROCHASKA,M. (Watts, A.J.), PENALTY AKR pass interference 13 yards to the BRY44, 1ST DOWN BRY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-2
81.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for a loss of 2 yards to the Brynt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6TD6 plays · 71 yds · 2:1382% → 87%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
82.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 17 yds to the Brynt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 7TD13 plays · 60 yds · 5:5315% → 21%
Q2 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+14
84.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Psaveon Reaves for 14 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
84.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jihad Edmond for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
85.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 15 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
84.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Shai Young for 5 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
84.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 11 yds to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jr M Taglieri for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Samperi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
81.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
80.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Cichanowsky for 6 yds to the Brynt 47Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-20
80.1%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Michael Scott for a loss of 20 yards to the Brynt 27 BRYANT Penalty, intentional grounding (Matthew Prochaska) to the Brynt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS7 plays · 37 yds · 2:1883% → 81%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
83.0%
DJ Irons sacked by Darnel Shillingford and Christopher Eaton Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Brynt 44Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+32
82.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 32 yds to the Brynt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
81.8%
DJ Irons run for 3 yds to the Brynt 3 DJ Irons fumbled, forced by Ryan Saddler, recovered by AkronSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12FUMBLE7 plays · 67 yds · 0:0081% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jonzell Norrils for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
82.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 12 yds to the Brynt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
83.1%
DJ Irons sacked by Kenny Dyson Jr. and Darnel Shillingford for a loss of 1 yard to the Brynt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+25
82.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to for 25 yds to the Brynt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+9
83.7%
Jonzell Norrils run for 2 yds to the Brynt 17 Jonzell Norrils fumbled, forced by Darnel Shillingford, recovered by Brynt Ryan Saddler , return for 9 yds to the Brynt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 13TD16 plays · 83 yds · 6:2720% → 39%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.4%
Fabrice Mukendi run for no gain to the Brynt 17 Fabrice Mukendi fumbled, forced by Andre Proffitt, recovered by Brynt Fabrice MukendiSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
80.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Fabrice Mukendi for 2 yds to the Brynt 19Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+15
81.4%
ECKHAUS, Zevi pass incomplete to PROCHASKA,M., PENALTY AKR pass interference 15 yards to the BRY34, 1ST DOWN BRY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
79.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Macklin Kortebein for 5 yds to the Brynt 39Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+14
78.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Fabrice Mukendi for 14 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+11
79.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jihad Edmond for 11 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+13
77.5%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Gary Cooper for 13 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3469% → 88%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 15 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
71.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 16 yds to the Brynt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-79
73.1%
AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-79 Yards) to the Akron 18Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-5
70.6%
DJ Irons run for a loss of 5 yards to the Brynt 20 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Akron DJ IronsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16TD8 plays · 60 yds · 4:2488% → 97%
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+14
88.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 14 yds to the Brynt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
88.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 11 yds to the Brynt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
88.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Brynt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 17FUMBLE7 plays · 10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
95.4%
ECKHAUS, Zevi pass intercepted by Cochran, Jr., R at the BRY46, Cochran, Jr., R return to the AKR49, Cochran, Jr., R for loss of 5 yards to the AKR49, PENALTY AKR pass interference 14 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN BRY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
50
+9
94.8%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Logan Hawkins for a loss of 15 yards to the Brynt 26 Zevi Eckhaus fumbled, recovered by Akron Michael Scott , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds to the Brynt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18TD6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5597% → 100%
BRYDrive 19Uncategorized8 plays · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
99.3%
Colin Elliott pass complete to Macklin Kortebein for 11 yds to the Brynt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-4
99.3%
Colin Elliott pass complete to Kyle Cichanowsky for a loss of 4 yards to the Brynt 29Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Colin Elliott pass incomplete to Kyle Cichanowsky, broken up by Michael ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:47
DJ Irons run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q3 5:21
Fabrice Mukendi run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Samperi KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q4 9:29
DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
+7.9