Norfolk State at Toledo (10-49)

NORF

Norfolk State 10 at Toledo 49

TOL

2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Glass Bowl

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Win probability · TOL

modelTOL aheadNORF aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNORF score

What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went

Q4 0:00 · Rayquan Smith run for 1 yd to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

Driver values - Δ win prob, pts

Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts

This game in five plays

TD · Q1 10:44: Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — NORF win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
TD · Q1 1:21: Juwan Carter pass complete to Justin Smith for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Nardone KICK) — NORF win probability +1.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
TD · Q2 13:50: Justin Clark 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — NORF win probability +1.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NORF has the ball).
TD · Q2 0:27: Dequan Finn run for 24 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
TD · Q3 12:05: Bryant Koback run for 6 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).

Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs

TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NORF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8

Q1 14:04NORF 4th & 8 at NORF 27, tied
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
Go for it
1.4%−0.1
33% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
1.5%
average punt
Q1 6:50NORF 4th & 10 at NORF 33, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
Go for it
1.9%−0.1
29% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
2.1%
average punt
Q1 6:50NORF 4th & 2 at NORF 49, down 14
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
1.8%
56% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
Punt
1.7%−0.1
average punt
Q2 13:50NORF 4th & 6 at NORF 24, down 7
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
Go for it
2.9%−0.1
38% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
3.0%
average punt
Q2 7:35NORF 4th & 24 at midfield, down 14
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
Go for it
2.6%−0.3
7% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
2.9%
average punt
Q2 0:27TOL 4th & 3 at NORF 24, up 14
Close callWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
96.6%−0.1
52% to convert
Field goal
96.7%
68% to make
Punt
96.1%−0.6
average punt
Q3 9:14TOL 4th & 6 at NORF 6, up 28
Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
99.7%−<0.1
31% to convert
Field goal
99.7%
91% to make
Punt
99.2%−0.5
average punt
Q3 1:08NORF 4th & 2 at TOL 9, down 35
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
0.2%
54% to convert
Field goal
0.1%−0.1
89% to make
Punt
-0.4%−0.5
average punt
Q4 14:13TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 12, up 35
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
Go for it
99.8%−0.1
35% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
99.9%
average punt
Q4 11:01NORF 4th & 12 at TOL 15, down 35
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
Go for it
-0.0%−0.1
21% to convert
Field goalTheir call
0.1%
83% to make
Punt
-0.3%−0.3
average punt
Q4 5:23NORF 4th & 5 at NORF 30, down 39
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
Go for it
0.0%−<0.1
41% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
0.0%
average punt

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NORF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1

Q1 10:44TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
98.4%
97% to make
Go for two
98.4%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 6:50TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
98.3%
97% to make
Go for two
98.3%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q1 1:21NORF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
2.7%
97% to make
Go for two
2.7%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 13:50TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
97.7%
97% to make
Go for two
97.7%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q2 0:27TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
98.8%
97% to make
Go for two
98.8%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 12:05TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.9%
97% to make
Go for two
99.9%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 6:28TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
99.9%
97% to make
Go for two
99.9%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q4 7:35TOL Touchdown, up 38 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
100.0%
97% to make
Go for two
100.0%−<0.1
45% to convert

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

Download drive chart

NORFDrive 1PUNT

2 plays · 2 yds · 0:561% → 1%

Q1 15:00

3RD & 8

OWN 27

98.6%

Juwan Carter pass incompleteSimilar

Q1 14:04

4TH & 8

OWN 27

98.6%

Ryan Richter punt for 32 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 7 yds to the Toled 48Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 2TD

2 plays · 52 yds · 3:2099% → 98%

Q1 14:04

1ST & 10

OWN 48

98.6%

Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the NflkS 44Similar

Q1 10:44

2ND & GOAL

OPP 1

98.4%

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 3PUNT TD

1 play · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%

Q1 6:50

4TH & 10

OWN 33

+25

98.2%

Maxen Hook 25 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 4TD

3 plays · 75 yds · 5:292% → 3%

Q1 6:50

4TH & 2

OWN 49

98.2%

Justin Smith run for 3 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q1 6:50

1ST & 10

OPP 48

98.2%

Cameryn Brent run for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar

Q1 1:21

2ND & 9

OPP 47

+47

97.2%

Juwan Carter pass complete to Justin Smith for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Nardone KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 5PUNT

1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%

Q1 14:53

3RD & 5

OWN 39

98.6%

Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds, fair catch by J.J. Davis at the NflkS 20Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 6PUNT TD

1 play · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%

Q2 13:50

4TH & 6

OWN 24

+14

97.7%

Justin Clark 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 7PUNT

8 plays · 30 yds · 6:102% → 3%

Q2 13:45

1ST & 10

OWN 27

97.6%

Cameryn Brent run for 8 yds to the NflkS 35Similar

Q2 13:45

2ND & 2

OWN 35

97.5%

Rayquan Smith run for 3 yds to the NflkS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 13:45

1ST & 10

OWN 38

97.6%

Rayquan Smith run for 4 yds to the NflkS 42Similar

Q2 13:45

2ND & 6

OWN 42

+22

97.5%

Juwan Carter pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 22 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 13:45

1ST & 10

OPP 36

-6

97.5%

Cameryn Brent run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 42Similar

Q2 7:46

2ND & 16

OPP 42

97.1%

Juwan Carter sacked by D'Andre Ragin and Dyontae Johnson for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar

Q2 7:46

3RD & 24

97.1%

Juwan Carter pass incompleteSimilar

Q2 7:35

4TH & 24

97.2%

Ryan Richter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 12Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 8TD

2 plays · 88 yds · 0:0797% → 99%

Q2 0:34

3RD & 9

OPP 30

96.9%

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the NflkS 24Similar

Q2 0:27

4TH & 3

OPP 24

+24

98.7%

Dequan Finn run for 24 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 9END OF HALF

2 plays · 6 yds · 0:052% → 1%

Q2 0:00

3RD & 4

OWN 48

98.4%

J.J. Davis run for no gain to the NflkS 48Similar

Q3 14:55

1ST & 10

OWN 35

+15

98.7%

#2 C.Bradley pass to the right incomplete intended for #14 I.Winstead thrown to the NSU36, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on #5 D.Coles enforced 15 yards from the TOL35 to the TOL50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 10TD

1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%

Q3 12:05

1ST & GOAL

OPP 6

99.7%

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 11DOWNS

1 play · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%

Q3 9:14

4TH & GOAL

OPP 6

99.8%

Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the NflkS 2Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 12INT

2 plays · 75 yds · 2:350% → 0%

Q3 9:14

1ST & 10

OPP 30

99.7%

Juwan Carter run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar

Q3 6:39

1ST & 10

OPP 23

-15

99.8%

Juwan Carter pass intercepted for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Womack) to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 13TD

2 plays · 84 yds · 0:10100% → 100%

Q3 6:28

1ST & 10

OWN 16

+84

99.8%

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 84 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar

Q3 6:18

1ST & 10

OWN 27

99.8%

Rayquan Smith run for no gain to the NflkS 27 TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Samuel Womack) to the NflkS 32Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 14DOWNS

1 play · 59 yds · 0:000% → 0%

Q3 1:08

4TH & 2

OPP 9

99.8%

J.J. Davis run for no gain to the Toled 9Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 15PUNT

3 plays · 3 yds · 1:55100% → 100%

Q3 1:08

1ST & 10

OWN 9

99.9%

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 10Similar

Q3 0:00

2ND & 9

OWN 10

99.9%

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar

Q4 14:13

4TH & 7

OWN 12

99.9%

Bailey Flint punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Justin Smith at the Toled 35Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 16FG

1 play · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%

Q4 11:01

4TH & 12

OPP 15

+32

99.9%

Josh Nardone 32 yd FG GOODSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 17TD

1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%

Q4 7:35

1ST & 10

OPP 15

+15

99.9%

Jacquez Stuart run for 15 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 18PUNT

1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%

Q4 5:23

4TH & 5

OWN 30

100.0%

Ryan Richter punt for 32 yds, downed at the Toled 38Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

TOLDrive 19DOWNS

1 play · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%

Q4 5:23

1ST & 10

OPP 36

-3

99.9%

Jordan Lowe run for a loss of 3 yards to the NflkS 39Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

NORFDrive 20END OF GAME

2 plays · 10 yds · 0:540% → 0%

Q4 0:54

2ND & 10

OWN 42

100.0%

Cameryn Brent run for 9 yds to the Toled 49Similar

Q4 0:00

3RD & 1

OPP 49

100.0%

Rayquan Smith run for 1 yd to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

Biggest swings

TD · Q2 0:27

Dequan Finn run for 24 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

+1.8

TD · Q1 1:21

Juwan Carter pass complete to Justin Smith for 47 yds for a TD, (Josh Nardone KICK)

-1

TD · Q2 13:50

Justin Clark 14 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Thomas Cluckey Kick)

-1