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BUF

Buffalo 18 at Miami (OH) 45

M-OH
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2021 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:35 · Dom Dzioban punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 25 , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Buff 15 BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Block (Wankeith Akin Jr.) to the Buff 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense+13.0Pregame prior+12.0Score differential+6.1Garbage-time factor+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:10: Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +2.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:55: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:05: Kenny Tracy run for 27 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +7.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:19: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:06: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 3:52M-OH 4th & 2 at BUF 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    65.9%−1.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:12BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:09BUF 4th & 6 at M-OH 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:13M-OH 4th & 3 at BUF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:36BUF 4th & 1 at M-OH 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.7%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:35M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:28M-OH 4th & 3 at BUF 40, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−1.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:02BUF 4th & 7 at M-OH 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:19BUF 4th & 7 at M-OH 15, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:47M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 17, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:20M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:10BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:05M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:19M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:06M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:35M-OH Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2527% → 28%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
73.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 5 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
73.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
73.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
73.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+2
72.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 42 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, forced by Matthew Salopek, recovered by MiaOh Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
73.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 58 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1027% → 30%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
73.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
73.3%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Porter,Bernard PENALTY BUF Holding (Polgar,Bence) 10 yards from BUF37 to BUF27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
73.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+15
73.4%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Porter,Bernard broken up by Pace Jr.,Ivan PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (Phelps,Lonnie) 15 yards from BUF27 to BUF42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
73.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
73.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
73.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+22
73.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 22 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
73.1%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
73.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 5 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+8
73.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-5
73.1%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Fuzak,Jake) 5 yards from MIA42 to MIA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1872% → 72%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
71.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 18 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
72.0%
Kevin Davis run for 13 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+27
72.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 27 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.4%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
72.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+8
72.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 8 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
72.1%
Graham Nicholson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3428% → 28%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
72.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+4
72.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+6
72.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 43 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:1772% → 76%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
71.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
50
+15
72.4%
Kevin Davis run for 15 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
72.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 20 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
72.7%
Jalen Walker run for 4 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+5
72.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
76.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4624% → 26%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
75.4%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
75.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+48
75.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 48 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
74.3%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
74.3%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
74.4%
Alex McNulty 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5676% → 76%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
75.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 23 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
76.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+8
76.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 8 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
76.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 7 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
76.4%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
76.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
76.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5877% → 84%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
76.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+16
76.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 16 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
77.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 25 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
77.9%
Shelton,Tyre rush for 4 yards gain to the BUF26 (Gross Jr.,Cory) PENALTY MIA Holding (Shaffer,Caleb) 10 yards from BUF30 to BUF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+13
77.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+27
84.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 27 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:2118% → 17%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
82.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
82.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+15
82.7%
Vantrease,Kyle pass incomplete to Williams,Quian PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (Saunders Jr.,John) 15 yards from BUF28 to BUF43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
82.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
81.4%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+23
81.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 23 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
80.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
80.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
81.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
82.9%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0185% → 85%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
85.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by James Patterson for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-5
85.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Daymond Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 18
OWN 14
-5
84.9%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Shaffer,Caleb) 5 yards from MIA14 to MIA09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 23
OWN 9
+5
84.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+1
85.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 25 , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 1 yd to the Buff 15 BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Block (Wankeith Akin Jr.) to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3513% → 13%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
86.9%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Kobe Hilton for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3286% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.8%
Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
85.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
85.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 28 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
86.4%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+1
86.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
85.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
86.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1213% → 13%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
86.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
86.9%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+4
86.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:5788% → 96%
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
88.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
88.2%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Shaffer,Caleb) 5 yards from BUF05 to BUF10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:175% → 4%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
95.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+13
94.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
94.9%
Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
94.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+4
94.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
95.8%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5696% → 100%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
96.4%
Gabbert,Brett sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIA44 (Laing,Kyler, Wolo,George) PENALTY MIA Holding (Vaughan,Sam) 10 yards from MIA45 to MIA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+4
96.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+22
96.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 22 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 39 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.6%
Matt Myers run for 9 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
99.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.6%
Dominic Johnson pass complete to Quian Williams for 15 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
99.6%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+14
99.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
99.5%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-10
99.7%
Marks,Kevin rush for 1 yard gain to the MIA13 (Singleton,Cecil) PENALTY BUF Holding (Doiron,Deondre) 10 yards from MIA14 to MIA24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 24
+9
99.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 7
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 23 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
99.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+20
99.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 20 yds Jack Sorenson fumbled, forced by Jibrahn Claude, recovered by Buff George WoloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:080% → 2%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
99.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 22 yds to the MiaOh 16 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.7%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
98.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Quian Williams for 20 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:3899% → 100%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
98.5%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+18
98.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 18 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
98.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
98.6%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+12
98.6%
Kenny Tracy run for 12 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
98.6%
Gabbert,Brett pass incomplete to Sorenson,Jack PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (Washington,Aapri) 15 yards from BUF26 to BUF11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
98.9%
Kevin Davis run for 10 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Dylan McDuffie for 4 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
Matt Myers sacked by Kameron Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 37 Matt Myers fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Kobe Hilton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 24 yds · 6:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
99.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
99.9%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Mozee,Keyon rush for 1 yard loss to the BUF16 (Laing,Kyler) PENALTY BUF Face Mask (Laing,Kyler) 8 yards from BUF15 to BUF07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
99.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
99.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:19
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 10 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q2 7:05
Kenny Tracy run for 27 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q2 14:55
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com