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M-OH

Miami (OH) 24 at Ball State 17

BALL
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:01: Jake Chanove 29 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +4.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:44: Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED) — M-OH win probability +9.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:42: Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +16.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:54: BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined — M-OH win probability +31.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:10: Graham Nicholson 51 yd FG MISSED — M-OH win probability +9.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 9:21M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:31BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:30M-OH 4th & 2 at BALL 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at M-OH 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−1.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:01BALL 4th & 2 at M-OH 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%−1.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:06BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.2
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:29M-OH 4th & 22 at M-OH 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−4.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:59M-OH 4th & 7 at BALL 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 10 at BALL 35, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:18BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:13M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−1.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:53BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:10M-OH 4th & 7 at BALL 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:34BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:33M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:44M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:42BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2657% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
56.8%
Plitt,Drew pass incomplete to Tyler,Yo'Heinz PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (Boswell,Cedric) 15 yards from BSU37 to MIA48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
56.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
56.8%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+38
56.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 38 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
56.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
56.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the MiaOh 6Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0842% → 41%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
58.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
58.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
58.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+7
59.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 53 yds , Justin Hall returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:3259% → 60%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
59.4%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
59.5%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
59.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
60.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Kimpler,Ben at BSU31 Kimpler,Ben return UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:1641% → 44%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
59.1%
Kevin Davis run for 11 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
58.8%
Jalen Walker pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 27 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
58.7%
Kenny Tracy run for 5 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.8%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the BalSt 3Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 3 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0257% → 56%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
57.1%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.7%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
56.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:0144% → 45%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
56.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 9 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+10
55.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
56.0%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+19
55.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 19 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
55.6%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-5
55.6%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Paulson,Derek) 5 yards from BSU12 to BSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+9
55.8%
Keyon Mozee run for 9 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
56.0%
Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
55.0%
Graham Nicholson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 5:5956% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
55.5%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
56.8%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
56.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
57.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
57.2%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Will Jones run for no gain to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
56.2%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
57.7%
Justin Hall run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
57.7%
Jayshon Jackson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
56.9%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
57.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Sterling Weatherford for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 28
0
56.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 28
+17
55.8%
Will Jones run for 17 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+29
58.7%
Jake Chanove 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1744% → 60%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
56.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
55.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
54.3%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+24
53.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 24 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
52.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 9 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
52.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
52.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
52.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 4 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+3
53.4%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
50.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3245% → 45%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
45.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+7
45.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
45.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
45.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+3
46.3%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
44.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0657% → 56%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
43.3%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
43.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2656% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
43.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 31 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
40.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
40.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-13
41.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaOh 39 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Brett Gabbert , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 22
OWN 39
+17
43.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 45 yds , Justin Hall returns for 17 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4745% → 67%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
45.4%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
46.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+12
46.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 12 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.6%
Plitt,Drew pass incomplete to Steele,Carson PENALTY MIA Personal Foul (Hilton,Kobe) 15 yards from MIA47 to MIA32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
50.2%
Carson Steele run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
50.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+11
50.2%
Justin Hall run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.2%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3541% → 39%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
58.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 11 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
57.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
58.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+1
58.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
60.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2862% → 60%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
62.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 20 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
64.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
63.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+14
61.6%
Drew Plitt run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Cedric Boswell) to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
66.2%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
67.5%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-15
67.5%
BALL ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 26
OPP 42
-5
62.8%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MIA42 to MIA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 31
OPP 47
0
62.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Will JonesSimilar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 31
OPP 47
0
60.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 5:3738% → 77%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
62.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+43
61.5%
Keyon Mozee run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brett Anderson II) to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
55.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 6 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
55.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+4
57.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-5
60.1%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Nank,Peter) 5 yards from BSU30 to BSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+14
62.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 14 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
54.8%
Brett Gabbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
54.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
56.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
54.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 3 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
23.0%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3631% → 29%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
33.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
33.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 7 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
35.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
34.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
29.1%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0576% → 76%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
24.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
24.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-5
25.2%
Gabbert,Brett pass complete to Hippenhammer,Mac for 22 yards to the MIA35 (Uzodinma,Amechi), out of bounds PENALTY MIA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Shaffer,Caleb) 5 yards from MIA13 to MIA08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+13
25.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
24.0%
Dom Dzioban punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Hassan Littles at the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2029% → 23%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.1%
Justin Hall run for no gain to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
28.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+3
27.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 3 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
23.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:4380% → 92%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
20.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+16
19.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 16 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
17.7%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
17.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+13
17.0%
Gabbert,Brett pass incomplete to Paulson,Derek, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Uzodinma,Amechi) 13 yards from BSU49 to BSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
16.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-10
16.3%
Gabbert,Brett rush for 11 yards gain to the BSU24, End Of Play PENALTY MIA Holding (Vaughan,Sam) 10 yards from BSU35 to BSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 19
OPP 45
+12
17.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Devon Dorsey for 12 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
17.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+51
7.7%
Graham Nicholson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:108% → 9%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
7.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 20 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
9.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
9.6%
Will Jones run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
11.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+5
11.4%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
11.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
9.1%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:0094% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
4.9%
Keyon Mozee run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
4.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-1
4.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:54
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined
-31.8
TD · Q3 8:42
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q2 1:44
Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT MISSED)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com