2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:18: AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 57 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +1.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:40: Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 15 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK) — AKR win probability +3.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:24: Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:39: Keyon Mozee run for 46 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED) — M-OH win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:32: AJ Mayer pass complete to Andrew Homer for 7 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 11:15AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q1 5:17AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:36AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.3%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q2 12:29AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 0:26M-OH 4th & 28 at M-OH 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.2%−0.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q3 7:54AKR 4th & 30 at AKR 19, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%−1.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 0:29AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 44, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00M-OH 4th & 3 at AKR 17, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%51% to convertField goal99.7%−0.180% to makePunt99.0%−0.8average punt
- Q4 12:20M-OH 4th & 8 at AKR 8, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%90% to makePunt99.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:20AKR 4th & 2 at M-OH 44, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.0%−0.127% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:13M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 30, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:31AKR 4th & 26 at AKR 41, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:43M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 36, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:42M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:18M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.1%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:40AKR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.4%97% to makeGo for two13.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:24M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:39M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:32M-OH Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 3:458% → 9%
M-OHDrive 2TD11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3391% → 91%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.9%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 6 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-5
91.0%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Redding,David) 5 yards from AKR45 to AKR50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 8
50
+10
91.0%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
91.0%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Andrew Homer for 23 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:009% → 10%
Q1 6:36
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+5
90.8%
PENALTY MIA Offside (Boswell,Cedric) 5 yards from AKR24 to AKR29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+17
90.5%
Blake Hester run for 2 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD5 plays · 77 yds · 1:1890% → 92%
AKRDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 4:498% → 8%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 6 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
91.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
91.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-5
91.8%
Gibson,Zach pass complete to Mumpfield,Konata for 17 yards to the MIA37 (Pace Jr.,Ivan) PENALTY AKR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Brank,Tristian) 5 yards from AKR46 to AKR41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 45
-5
91.9%
PENALTY AKR False Start (Georges,Tony) 5 yards from AKR45 to AKR40. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FUMBLE7 plays · 32 yds · 2:4292% → 92%
AKRDrive 7TD3 plays · 36 yds · 1:079% → 13%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
91.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 11 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
90.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 15 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1689% → 93%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
89.3%
AJ Mayer sacked by Andrew Behm for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
88.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Andrew Homer for 15 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
88.9%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 29 yds to the Akron 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 55 yds · 2:248% → 9%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
92.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Andre Williams for 15 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
91.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 8 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+14
91.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
91.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 16 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.9%
Blake Hester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40 Blake Hester fumbled, forced by Cedric Boswell, recovered by MiaOh Lonnie PhelpsSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.9%
Blake Hester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 40 Blake Hester fumbled, forced by Cedric Boswell, recovered by MiaOh Lonnie PhelpsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 7 yds · 1:3293% → 92%
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
93.3%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 13
OPP 38
-5
93.3%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Borders,Kolby) 5 yards from AKR38 to AKR43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 18
OPP 43
-10
93.0%
Mayer,AJ pass complete to Coldiron,Jack for 12 yards to the AKR31 (Kelly-Powell,Jaylen) PENALTY MIA Holding (Redding,David) 10 yards from AKR43 to MIA47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 28
OWN 47
0
92.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Konata Mumpfield at the Akron 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2192% → 97%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
92.2%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 15 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
92.8%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Hippenhammer,Mac) 5 yards from MIA45 to MIA40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+7
92.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 7 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+46
97.1%
Keyon Mozee run for 46 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT12 plays · -4 yds · 3:403% → 3%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
96.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
96.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 2 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+8
96.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Oran Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
96.6%
Gibson,Zach pass complete to Mathison,Michael for 0 yards to the AKR39 PENALTY AKR Holding (Murphy,Owen) 10 yards from AKR39 to AKR29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 16
OWN 33
-5
97.3%
Gibson,Zach pass incomplete to Williams,Anthony QB hurried by Butler,Kameron PENALTY AKR False Start (Murphy,Owen) 5 yards from AKR33 to AKR28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 21
OWN 28
-9
97.4%
Zach Gibson sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 30
OWN 19
+13
97.5%
Ethan Slike punt for 55 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 13 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD6 plays · 61 yds · 3:2298% → 100%
Q3 7:54
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
97.8%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Kevin Davis for 7 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
97.8%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Vaughan,Sam) 5 yards from AKR45 to AKR50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
AJ Mayer pass complete to Andrew Homer for 7 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 21 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q3 4:32
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+3
99.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to George Qualls Jr. for 3 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 5
OWN 49
-5
99.7%
PENALTY AKR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Brank,Tristian) 5 yards from AKR49 to AKR44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Andre Williams for 7 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG10 plays · 43 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
AKRDrive 17TD12 plays · 80 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Blake Hester for 7 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+13
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 13 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 8 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 27 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 4:21100% → 100%
AKRDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 31 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Oran Singleton Jr. for 11 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+13
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 13 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
99.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Nasir Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 11
OPP 44
-15
100.0%
PENALTY AKR Personal Foul (Georges,Tony) 15 yards from MIA44 to AKR41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 26
OWN 41
+6
100.0%
Ethan Slike punt for 36 yds , Darez Snider returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+8
100.0%
Dom Dzioban punt for 37 yds , Oran Singleton Jr. returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
50
+50
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Andre Williams for 50 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:39
Keyon Mozee run for 46 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson PAT BLOCKED)
+4.3
TD · Q2 4:24
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q2 8:40
Zach Gibson pass complete to Tristian Brank for 15 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)
-3.4