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CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Miami (OH) 28

M-OH
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:15 · D.Dzioban punts 40 yards to CMC 2, Center-R.Newton. Downed by J.Walker.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+6.7Garbage-time factor+2.6Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Pregame prior−0.6Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:52: B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 36. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 36. Gain of 36 yards. J.Sorenson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +7.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:39: D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 11. Catch made by D.Dixon at MOH 11. Gain of 11 yards. D.Dixon for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — CMU win probability +22.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:27: A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 23. Catch made by N.Muersch at CMC 23. Gain of 23 yards. N.Muersch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +22.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:46: K.Davis rushed to CMC 47 for 3 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 47. — M-OH win probability +11.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:51: A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 11. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 11. Gain of 11 yards. J.Sorenson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — M-OH win probability +14.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:13CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:33CMU 4th & 10 at M-OH 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:16M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40CMU 4th & 21 at M-OH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:10M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:48CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:30M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:42CMU 4th & 12 at M-OH 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:33M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:13CMU 4th & 6 at M-OH 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−9.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:15M-OH 4th & 4 at CMU 42, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.3%−2.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:11CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:52CMU 4th & 6 at M-OH 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:46CMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 23, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:23M-OH 4th & 2 at CMU 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:34M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:52M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:22CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:39CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:27M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:51M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4152% → 52%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
48.3%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 26 for 0 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 26.Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
48.4%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for J.Wilson.Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
48.4%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for K.Pimpleton.Similar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+46
48.5%
L.Elzinga punts 46 yards to MOH 28, Center-F.Lama. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3148% → 52%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
48.4%
J.Bester rushed to MOH 28 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 28.Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
48.6%
PENALTY on MOH-C.Shaffer, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+15
48.6%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 23. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 23. Gain of 15 yards. Pushed out of bounds by R.Sturkey at MOH 38.Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
48.7%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 42 for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 42.Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
49.1%
J.Bester rushed to MOH 48 for 6 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 48.Similar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
49.3%
A.Mayer rushed to CMC 46 for 6 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 46.Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+7
49.6%
B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 46. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 46. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 39.Similar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
49.7%
B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 39. Catch made by T.Shelton at CMC 39. Gain of 5 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 34.Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+10
50.0%
J.Bester rushed to CMC 24 for 10 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 24.Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
52.2%
B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 24. Catch made by A.Homer at CMC 24. Gain of 24 yards. A.Homer for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:5649% → 48%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.4%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 24 for -1 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 24.Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
51.7%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 24. Catch made by D.Dixon at CMC 24. Gain of 36 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 40.Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
51.3%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
51.4%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for K.Pimpleton.Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
51.5%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for K.Pimpleton.Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+28
51.9%
L.Elzinga punts 28 yards to MOH 12, Center-F.Lama. Downed by T.Jones.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0652% → 53%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
52.2%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for J.Walker.Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
52.2%
T.Shelton rushed to MOH 15 for 3 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 15.Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
52.3%
B.Gabbert scrambles to MOH 23 for 8 yards. B.Gabbert ran out of bounds.Similar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
52.9%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 23. Catch made by J.Sorenson at MOH 23. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 22.Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
53.3%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for K.Mozee.Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 11
OWN 22
0
52.9%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for J.Sorenson.Similar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+45
52.7%
D.Dzioban punts 45 yards to CMC 33, Center-R.Newton. Fair catch by K.Pimpleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2947% → 45%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
53.1%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 33. Catch made by J.Sullivan at CMC 33. Gain of 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by MOH at CMC 46.Similar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
52.8%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 46. Catch made by J.Sullivan at CMC 46. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 49.Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
52.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 49. Catch made by D.Dixon at CMC 49. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 35.Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
52.5%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 35. Catch made by J.Wilson at MOH 35. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 20.Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
52.5%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
52.6%
D.Richardson scrambles to MOH 19 for 1 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 19.Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-12
53.5%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson sacked at MOH 31 for -12 yards (L.Phelps; D.Robinson) PENALTY on CMC-D.Richardson, Intentional Grounding, 0 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 21
OPP 31
0
55.2%
M.Meeder 49 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-F.Lama, Holder-CMC.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4755% → 64%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
55.0%
K.Davis rushed to MOH 33 for 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at MOH 33.Similar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
55.4%
B.Gabbert scrambles to MOH 43 for 10 yards. B.Gabbert ran out of bounds.Similar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
56.3%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 48 for 9 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 48.Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
56.6%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for D.Dorsey.Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
56.2%
B.Gabbert rushed to CMC 46 for 2 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 46.Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
57.0%
T.Shelton rushed to CMC 45 for 1 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 45.Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
57.1%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for M.Hippenhammer.Similar
Q1 1:12
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+9
56.6%
B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 45. Catch made by K.Davis at CMC 45. Gain of 9 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 36.Similar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
63.9%
B.Gabbert pass complete to CMC 36. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 36. Gain of 36 yards. J.Sorenson for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:4339% → 38%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
61.4%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 37 for 13 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 37.Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
61.5%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 38 for 1 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 38.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
61.6%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
61.9%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for L.Nichols.Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+62
62.2%
L.Elzinga punts 62 yards to MOH End Zone, Center-F.Lama. Touchback. PENALTY on MOH-J.Saunders, Defensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:3864% → 65%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+51
63.9%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 10. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 10. Gain of 51 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 39. PENALTY on MOH-J.Walker, Personal Foul / Offense, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.4%
J.Bester rushed to MOH 46 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 46.Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
65.7%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 46. Catch made by K.Davis at MOH 46. Gain of 2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at MOH 48.Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
65.8%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for J.Sorenson.Similar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+38
65.1%
D.Dzioban punts 38 yards to CMC 14, Center-R.Newton. Fair catch by K.Pimpleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:3736% → 43%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
63.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 14. Catch made by K.Pimpleton at CMC 14. Gain of 5 yards. Pushed out of bounds by MOH at CMC 19.Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
64.0%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 19 for 0 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 19.Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+12
65.0%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 19. Catch made by J.Sullivan at CMC 19. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 31.Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
64.7%
K.Pimpleton rushed to CMC 39 for 8 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 39.Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
64.5%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for K.Pimpleton.Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
64.6%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 43 for 4 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 43.Similar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
65.4%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 43. Catch made by J.Sullivan at CMC 43. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 49.Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+8
64.5%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 49. Catch made by D.Dixon at MOH 49. Gain of 8 yards. D.Dixon ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
57.3%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 41. Catch made by J.Sullivan at MOH 41. Gain of 41 yards. J.Sullivan for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5760% → 60%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.3%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 28 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 28.Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
60.4%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for J.Bester.Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.6%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 28. Catch made by J.Sorenson at MOH 28. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 30.Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+44
59.8%
D.Dzioban punts 44 yards to CMC 26, Center-R.Newton. Fair catch by K.Pimpleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1440% → 37%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
60.5%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 28 for 2 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 28.Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
60.7%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 28 for 0 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 28.Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
62.0%
D.Richardson pass INTERCEPTED at CMC 39. Intercepted by M.Salopek at CMC 39. Tackled by CMC at CMC 12. PENALTY on MOH-M.Salopek, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
60.2%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 41 for 2 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 41.Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
60.5%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for L.Nichols.Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
61.3%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+39
62.6%
L.Elzinga punts 39 yards to MOH 20, Center-F.Lama. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:1063% → 63%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.9%
J.Bester rushed to MOH 20 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 20.Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
63.1%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 20. Catch made by J.Walker at MOH 20. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 31.Similar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
63.9%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 30 for -1 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 30.Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+3
63.8%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 33 for 3 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 33.Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
63.7%
B.Gabbert scrambles to MOH 43 for 10 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 43.Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
66.0%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert sacked at MOH 33 for -10 yards (K.Moretti)Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+10
64.5%
B.Gabbert pass complete to MOH 33. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 33. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 43.Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
64.6%
B.Gabbert steps back to pass. B.Gabbert pass incomplete intended for M.Hippenhammer.Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+38
63.2%
D.Dzioban punts 38 yards to CMC 19, Center-R.Newton. Fair catch by K.Pimpleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:4236% → 35%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
63.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 19. Catch made by J.Wilson at CMC 19. Gain of 16 yards. Pushed out of bounds by MOH at CMC 35.Similar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
63.4%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 35. Catch made by K.Pimpleton at CMC 35. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 46.Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
61.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 46. Catch made by R.Simmons at CMC 46. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 42.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.9%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for J.Sullivan.Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-2
61.3%
L.Nichols rushed to MOH 44 for -2 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 44.Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
63.2%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for L.Nichols.Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+36
64.9%
L.Elzinga punts 36 yards to MOH 8, Center-F.Lama. Fair catch by J.Walker.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2766% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 29.Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
66.5%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 29. Catch made by A.Homer at MOH 29. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 36.Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
A.Mayer steps back to pass. A.Mayer pass incomplete intended for A.Homer.Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
67.1%
PENALTY on MOH-R.Holskey, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+13
66.4%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 31. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 31. Gain of 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at MOH 44.Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-2
68.2%
A.Mayer rushed to MOH 42 for -2 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 42.Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+35
66.2%
D.Dzioban punts 35 yards to CMC 23, Center-R.Newton. Fair catch by K.Pimpleton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1434% → 40%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
66.2%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 23. Catch made by J.Sullivan at CMC 23. Gain of 8 yards. Pushed out of bounds by MOH at CMC 31.Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+14
64.4%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 31. Catch made by R.Simmons at CMC 31. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 45.Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
64.5%
D.Richardson rushed to MOH 43 for 12 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 43.Similar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
63.4%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 37 for 6 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 37.Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
63.3%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for H.Buczkowski.Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+12
63.9%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 25 for 12 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 25.Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
61.9%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 23 for 2 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 23.Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
62.1%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for L.Gumms.Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+2
64.6%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 23. Catch made by L.Nichols at MOH 23. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 21.Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
60.5%
M.Meeder 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-F.Lama, Holder-CMC.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:5564% → 66%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
A.Mayer rushed to MOH 31 for 6 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 31.Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
65.3%
T.Shelton rushed to MOH 35 for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 35.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.7%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 35. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 35. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 40.Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
66.9%
K.Davis rushed to MOH 39 for -1 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 39.Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+13
65.0%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 39. Catch made by J.Walker at MOH 39. Gain of 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 48.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.2%
A.Mayer steps back to pass. A.Mayer pass incomplete intended for M.Hippenhammer.Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
67.9%
T.Shelton rushed to CMC 48 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 48.Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
66.2%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 48. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 48. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 42.Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+40
66.3%
D.Dzioban punts 40 yards to CMC 2, Center-R.Newton. Downed by J.Walker.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5435% → 33%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
64.8%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
64.6%
L.Nichols rushed to CMC 2 for 0 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 2.Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
66.2%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for K.Pimpleton.Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+42
67.2%
L.Elzinga punts 42 yards to CMC 44, Center-F.Lama. J.Walker returned punt from the CMC 44. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:0971% → 70%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
70.9%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 27. Catch made by J.Walker at CMC 27. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 18.Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+9
71.2%
T.Shelton rushed to CMC 9 for 9 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 9.Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.3%
A.Mayer steps back to pass. A.Mayer pass incomplete intended for J.Sorenson.Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.1%
PENALTY on MOH-M.Hippenhammer, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
70.3%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 14. Catch made by J.Walker at CMC 14. Gain of 11 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 3.Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.9%
A.Mayer pass INTERCEPTED at CMC End Zone. Intercepted by G.Kreski at CMC End Zone. Tackled by MOH at CMC 5.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 4:0935% → 64%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+17
65.1%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 5. Catch made by J.Wilson at CMC 5. Gain of 17 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 22.Similar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
64.6%
M.Bailey rushed to CMC 23 for 1 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 23.Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
64.8%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 23. Catch made by R.Simmons at CMC 23. Gain of yards. R.Simmons for yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CMC-J.Wilson, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+27
65.2%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 18. Catch made by J.Wilson at CMC 18. Gain of 27 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 45.Similar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
61.3%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 50 for 5 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 50.Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 5
OPP 0
+27
57.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 50. Catch made by K.Pimpleton at MOH 50. Gain of 27 yards. K.Pimpleton ran out of bounds.Similar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
58.2%
K.Pimpleton rushed to MOH 16 for 7 yards. K.Pimpleton ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+4
58.2%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 16. Catch made by M.Bailey at MOH 16. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 12.Similar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
58.4%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 11 for 1 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 11.Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
35.9%
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 11. Catch made by D.Dixon at MOH 11. Gain of 11 yards. D.Dixon for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5945% → 75%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
45.0%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 26 for 4 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 26.Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
43.8%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 26. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 26. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 36.Similar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+35
44.6%
A.Mayer pass complete to MOH 36. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at MOH 36. Gain of 35 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 29.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
51.7%
T.Shelton rushed to CMC 23 for 6 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 23.Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
74.5%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 23. Catch made by N.Muersch at CMC 23. Gain of 23 yards. N.Muersch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:3533% → 36%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
66.7%
PENALTY on MOH-I.Pace, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
64.1%
M.Bailey rushed to CMC 38 for -2 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 38.Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+20
66.3%
D.Richardson pass complete to CMC 38. Catch made by D.Dixon at CMC 38. Gain of 20 yards. Pushed out of bounds by MOH at MOH 42.Similar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.4%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for D.Dixon.Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
61.8%
M.Bailey rushed to MOH 38 for 4 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 38.Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
62.3%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson pass incomplete intended for J.Wilson.Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 6
OPP 38
-12
64.2%
D.Richardson steps back to pass. D.Richardson sacked at MOH 50 for -12 yards (B.Kimpler)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:5575% → 92%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+3
75.3%
K.Davis rushed to CMC 47 for 3 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 47.Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
74.4%
T.Shelton rushed to CMC 47 for 0 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 47.Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+31
74.0%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 47. Catch made by M.Hippenhammer at CMC 47. Gain of 31 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 16.Similar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
76.8%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 16. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 16. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 11.Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
78.9%
A.Mayer steps back to pass. A.Mayer pass incomplete intended for J.Sorenson.Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
91.7%
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 11. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 11. Gain of 11 yards. J.Sorenson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:5810% → 8%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.5%
J.Sirmon steps back to pass. J.Sirmon pass incomplete intended for J.Sullivan.Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
90.5%
J.Sirmon pass complete to CMC 25. Catch made by D.Dixon at CMC 25. Gain of 19 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 44.Similar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
89.5%
J.Sirmon pass complete to CMC 44. Catch made by J.Wilson at CMC 44. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by MOH at CMC 48.Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
89.4%
J.Sirmon pass complete to CMC 48. Catch made by J.Wilson at CMC 48. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 43.Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
89.2%
J.Sirmon pass complete to MOH 43. Catch made by J.Wilson at MOH 43. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 39.Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
89.3%
J.Sirmon pass complete to MOH 39. Catch made by K.Pimpleton at MOH 39. Gain of 5 yards. K.Pimpleton ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
89.6%
L.Nichols rushed to MOH 32 for 2 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 32.Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
89.3%
J.Sirmon pass complete to MOH 32. Catch made by L.Gumms at MOH 32. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 24.Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-2
89.1%
J.Sirmon steps back to pass. J.Sirmon sacked at MOH 26 for -2 yards (K.Butler)Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+3
90.9%
J.Sirmon pass complete to MOH 26. Catch made by D.Dixon at MOH 26. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by MOH at MOH 23.Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
91.9%
M.Meeder 40 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-F.Lama, Holder-CMC.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:1694% → 96%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
94.3%
K.Mozee rushed to MOH 26 for 3 yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 26.Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
94.5%
PENALTY on MOH-R.Holskey, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
94.2%
T.Shelton rushed to MOH 19 for yards. Tackled by CMC at MOH 19. PENALTY on CMC-J.Whiteside, Personal Foul / Defense, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+46
95.3%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 18 for 46 yards. Pushed out of bounds by CMC at CMC 18.Similar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
95.8%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 16 for 2 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 16.Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
95.8%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 15 for 1 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 15.Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
95.6%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 10 for 5 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 10.Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+3
96.2%
K.Mozee rushed to CMC 7 for 3 yards. Tackled by CMC at CMC 7.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:27
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 23. Catch made by N.Muersch at CMC 23. Gain of 23 yards. N.Muersch for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+22.8
TD · Q4 13:39
D.Richardson pass complete to MOH 11. Catch made by D.Dixon at MOH 11. Gain of 11 yards. D.Dixon for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-22.4
TD · Q4 7:51
A.Mayer pass complete to CMC 11. Catch made by J.Sorenson at CMC 11. Gain of 11 yards. J.Sorenson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com