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TAR

Tarleton State 43 at New Mexico State 17

NMSU
2020 · Week 3 · Feb 21, 2021 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadTAR aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreTAR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:07 · 83-J.Walrath punts 55 yards from TSU 45 to NMS End Zone. touchback.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOne-score game
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense−10.5Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4One-score game+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:43: 10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas runs 86 yards for a touchdown. — TAR win probability +1.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:56: 10-C.Burston scrambles, runs 21 yards for a touchdown. — NMSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:15: 39-D.Rosemond runs 3 yards for a touchdown. — TAR win probability +0.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:01: 84-E.Albertson 27 yards Field Goal is Good. — TAR win probability +0.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:44: 48-A.Guzman 34 yards Field Goal is Good. — NMSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TAR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:30NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41TAR 4th & 5 at TAR 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:05TAR 4th & 10 at TAR 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07TAR 4th & 14 at TAR 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12TAR 4th & 4 at NMSU 45, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.1%−2.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:51NMSU 4th & 22 at NMSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03TAR 4th & 1 at NMSU 17, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%−2.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−9.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03TAR 4th & 4 at TAR 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:53NMSU 4th & 5 at TAR 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−1.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:21TAR 4th & 10 at NMSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−7.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:01NMSU 4th & 9 at TAR 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−5.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44TAR 4th & 2 at NMSU 17, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−10.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:34TAR 4th & 9 at NMSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:26TAR 4th & 6 at TAR 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TAR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:56TAR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:43TAR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TARDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0350% → 50%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.0%
8-B.Bridges to TSU 31 for 6 yards (3-D.Richardson). Penalty on NMS 15-R.Sanders, Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TSU 25. No Play.Similar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+70
50.0%
10-C.Burston runs 70 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0150% → 50%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
49.9%
9-J.Price to NMS 27 for 3 yards (3-T.Johnson).Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
49.9%
9-J.Price to NMS 33 for 6 yards (3-T.Johnson,7-B.Franklin).Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
49.9%
10-J.Johnson to NMS 37 for 4 yards (5-D.Banks,16-J.Kemp).Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.8%
22-E.Anderson to NMS 37 for no gain (12-J.Wells,41-Z.Hopkins).Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
49.8%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 7-T.Warner.Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.7%
9-J.Price to NMS 44 for 7 yards (55-C.Davis,12-J.Wells).Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+42
49.5%
35-J.Carlson punts 42 yards from NMS 44. 8-K.Horton to TSU 14 for no gain (34-A.Reeves,10-L.Williams).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 3TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
48.3%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas runs 86 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2848% → 47%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.5%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 4-R.Downs.Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
47.3%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 11-A.Bodison.Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
47.2%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 7-T.Warner.Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+47
47.0%
35-J.Carlson punts 47 yards from NMS 40 to TSU 13, fair catch by 8-K.Horton.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:4853% → 55%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
46.8%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas. Penalty on NMS 9-A.Oliver, Pass interference, 15 yards, enforced at TSU 13. No Play.Similar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.7%
10-C.Burston complete to 80-D.Roberson. 80-D.Roberson to TSU 28 for no gain (43-T.Milton,1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
45.5%
10-C.Burston complete to 6-D.Cooper. 6-D.Cooper to TSU 39 for 11 yards (9-A.Oliver).Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
44.7%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 6-D.Cooper.Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
45.3%
22-R.Skinner to TSU 44 for 5 yards (12-C.Mills).Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
44.8%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas.Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+36
44.9%
83-J.Walrath punts 36 yards from TSU 44 to NMS 20, fair catch by 4-R.Downs.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 6TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:4056% → 58%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
43.8%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas to NMS 42 for 9 yards.Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
43.4%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 39 for 3 yards (43-T.Milton).Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
43.3%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 34 for 5 yards (4-J.Ferguson).Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
42.8%
10-C.Burston complete to 80-D.Roberson. 80-D.Roberson to NMS 31 for 3 yards (12-C.Mills).Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+15
42.9%
Penalty on NMS 12-C.Mills, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at NMS 31. No Play.Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
42.8%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 15 for 1 yard (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-1
42.2%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 16 for -1 yard (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
42.0%
Penalty on TSU 71-K.Dearth, False start, 5 yards, enforced at NMS 16. No Play.Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+21
42.1%
10-C.Burston scrambles, runs 21 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5543% → 41%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.5%
10-J.Johnson complete to 4-R.Downs. 4-R.Downs to NMS 29 for 4 yards (0-F.Chew).Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
42.2%
9-J.Price to NMS 34 for 5 yards (15-E.Willis).Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-6
42.4%
9-J.Price to NMS 28 for -6 yards (2-D.Hafford).Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+6
41.1%
35-J.Carlson punts 56 yards from NMS 28. 8-K.Horton to TSU 22 for 6 yards (22-X.Hinkle).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:1560% → 60%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
40.5%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 29 for 7 yards (41-B.Davis).Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
40.0%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 34 for 5 yards (72-J.Segura,3-D.Richardson).Similar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
39.9%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 36 for 2 yards (96-G.Bishop).Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
39.4%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 6-D.Cooper.Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-2
39.7%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 34 for -2 yards (3-D.Richardson).Similar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+37
40.3%
83-J.Walrath punts 37 yards from TSU 34, out of bounds at the NMS 29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:5862% → 64%
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
37.9%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 80-D.Roberson. Penalty on TSU 54-L.Ernst, Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TSU 28. No Play.Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+3
38.0%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 21 for 3 yards (98-Z.Stokes). Penalty on NMS 98-Z.Stokes, Facemasking ball carrier or quarterback, 15 yards, enforced at TSU 21.Similar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.1%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas.Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
37.2%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas to TSU 49 for 13 yards (9-A.Oliver).Similar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.4%
Penalty on TSU 74-B.Haynes, False start, 5 yards, enforced at TSU 49. No Play.Similar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
36.5%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 47 for 3 yards (4-J.Ferguson).Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+1
35.4%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 48 for 1 yard (72-J.Segura).Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-3
35.3%
10-C.Burston sacked at TSU 45 for -3 yards (41-B.Davis,4-J.Ferguson).Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 14
OWN 45
+55
35.8%
83-J.Walrath punts 55 yards from TSU 45 to NMS End Zone. touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 10TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:0668% → 68%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
32.5%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 44 for 11 yards (1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
33.1%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas. Penalty on NMS 80-T.Brohard, Roughing the passer, 15 yards, enforced at NMS 44. No Play.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
32.9%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 29 for no gain (1-D.Kirklin,41-B.Davis).Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
32.2%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas.Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.3%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas runs 29 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
33.1%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. INTERCEPTED by 5-D.Banks at TSU 49. 5-D.Banks to TSU 49 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5168% → 68%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
31.8%
22-R.Skinner to TSU 43 for -6 yards (43-T.Milton).Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+10
32.0%
10-C.Burston complete to 88-J.THomas. 88-J.THomas to NMS 47 for 10 yards (22-X.Hinkle).Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+2
31.2%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 45 for 2 yards (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+35
31.6%
83-J.Walrath punts 35 yards from NMS 45 to NMS 10, fair catch by 4-R.Downs.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1332% → 30%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
31.8%
9-J.Price to NMS 13 for 3 yards (58-P.Umanmielen).Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+16
31.5%
10-J.Johnson complete to 14-C.Harrity. 14-C.Harrity to NMS 29 for 16 yards.Similar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
31.7%
10-J.Johnson complete to 7-T.Warner. 7-T.Warner to NMS 32 for 3 yards (7-B.Franklin).Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+10
31.8%
10-J.Johnson complete to 4-R.Downs. 4-R.Downs to NMS 42 for 10 yards (16-J.Kemp).Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
32.9%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 1-J.Wyatt.Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-12
32.5%
10-J.Johnson sacked at NMS 30 for -12 yards (12-J.Wells).Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 22
OWN 30
0
30.0%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 7-T.Warner.Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 22
OWN 30
+39
29.7%
35-J.Carlson punts 39 yards from NMS 30 to the TSU 31, downed by 6-M.Bowe.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 14FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:3970% → 75%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
29.7%
10-C.Burston complete to 17-A.Ware. 17-A.Ware to TSU 36 for 5 yards (1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+14
29.1%
39-D.Rosemond to NMS 50 for 14 yards (12-C.Mills).Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+2
26.4%
39-D.Rosemond to NMS 48 for 2 yards (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
26.6%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 2-G.Douglas.Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+22
26.8%
10-C.Burston complete to 17-A.Ware. 17-A.Ware to NMS 26 for 22 yards (1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
25.9%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 6-D.Cooper.Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
26.0%
39-D.Rosemond to NMS 23 for 3 yards (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
25.9%
10-C.Burston complete to 17-A.Ware. 17-A.Ware to NMS 17 for 6 yards (1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+35
25.3%
48-A.Guzman 35 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-53
28.0%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 4-R.Downs, INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Franklin at TSU 42. 7-B.Franklin pushed ob at NMS 5 for 53 yards (10-J.Johnson).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 16TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2475% → 76%
Q3 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
24.7%
39-D.Rosemond to NMS 3 for 2 yards (43-T.Milton).Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.4%
39-D.Rosemond runs 3 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4028% → 28%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
27.5%
9-J.Price to NMS 34 for 7 yards (1-R.Wilson).Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
28.1%
9-J.Price to NMS 39 for 5 yards (15-E.Willis).Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
28.1%
10-J.Johnson complete to 14-C.Harrity. 14-C.Harrity to NMS 48 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson).Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
28.2%
22-E.Anderson to TSU 48 for 4 yards (33-D.Williams).Similar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
27.8%
10-J.Johnson complete to 2-I.Garcia-Castaneda. 2-I.Garcia-Castaneda to TSU 43 for 5 yards (5-D.Banks,7-B.Franklin).Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
27.5%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 2-I.Garcia-Castaneda.Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
27.0%
10-J.Johnson to TSU 32 for 11 yards (16-J.Kemp).Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
27.8%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 4-R.Downs, INTERCEPTED by 5-D.Banks at TSU 19. 5-D.Banks to TSU 19 for no gain. Penalty on NMS 77-C.Pharris, Holding, declined.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1376% → 78%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.7%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 19 for no gain (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
23.2%
39-D.Rosemond to TSU 25 for 6 yards (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
21.3%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 17-A.Ware.Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+13
21.9%
83-J.Walrath punts 51 yards from TSU 25. 4-R.Downs to NMS 37 for 13 yards (0-F.Chew).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5724% → 23%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
23.8%
10-J.Johnson to NMS 46 for 9 yards (3-T.Johnson).Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+7
25.2%
9-J.Price to TSU 47 for 7 yards (9-C.Thibodeaux).Similar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
25.2%
10-J.Johnson complete to 7-T.Warner. 7-T.Warner pushed ob at TSU 42 for 5 yards (5-D.Banks).Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
25.4%
9-J.Price to TSU 42 for no gain (2-D.Hafford).Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
23.7%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 22-E.Anderson.Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+2
22.9%
10-J.Johnson to TSU 40 for 2 yards (31-B.Collins).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:2382% → 83%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.2%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 88-J.THomas.Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
18.4%
22-R.Skinner to TSU 46 for 6 yards (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
17.9%
10-C.Burston complete to 80-D.Roberson. 80-D.Roberson to NMS 49 for 5 yards (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
16.5%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 2-G.Douglas.Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
16.5%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 45 for 4 yards (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
16.3%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas to NMS 36 for 9 yards (2-C.Bell).Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
15.8%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 34 for 2 yards (31-M.Edwards).Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+10
15.3%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas to NMS 24 for 10 yards (19-D.Williams).Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
14.6%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 80-D.Roberson.Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
14.9%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 2-G.Douglas.Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
15.1%
10-C.Burston incomplete. Intended for 6-D.Cooper.Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 10
OPP 24
-1
16.6%
48-A.Guzman 41 yards Field Goal is No Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:1418% → 18%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
18.1%
10-J.Johnson complete to 11-A.Bodison. 11-A.Bodison to NMS 46 for 22 yards (7-B.Franklin).Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+34
20.0%
10-J.Johnson complete to 7-T.Warner. 7-T.Warner pushed ob at TSU 20 for 34 yards (16-J.Kemp).Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.1%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 1-J.Wyatt. Penalty on TSU 2-D.Hafford, Pass interference, 15 yards, enforced at TSU 20. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.0%
Penalty on NMS 7-T.Warner, False start, 5 yards, enforced at TSU 5. No Play.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
21.0%
10-J.Johnson to TSU 10 for no gain (18-D.Harris).Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
20.7%
10-J.Johnson to TSU 9 for 1 yard (1-R.Wilson).Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
19.0%
10-J.Johnson incomplete. Intended for 9-J.Price.Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
18.1%
84-E.Albertson 27 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 22FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:1286% → 89%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
14.5%
22-R.Skinner to TSU 23 for -3 yards (6-M.Bowe).Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+34
14.4%
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas to NMS 43 for 34 yards (22-X.Hinkle).Similar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
12.7%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 25 for 18 yards (1-D.Kirklin).Similar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
11.8%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 22 for 3 yards (43-T.Milton).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
11.4%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 20 for 2 yards (25-L.Lavea).Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
10.1%
22-R.Skinner to NMS 17 for 3 yards (25-L.Lavea).Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
10.9%
48-A.Guzman 34 yards Field Goal is Good.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:1692% → 95%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
8.5%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 30 for 8 yards (12-C.Mills).Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
7.7%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 34 for 4 yards (10-L.Williams).Similar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
7.3%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 40 for 6 yards (3-D.Richardson).Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+13
6.6%
9-D.Kelley runs ob at NMS 47 for 13 yards.Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
6.2%
9-D.Kelley to NMS 44 for 3 yards (10-L.Williams).Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
5.8%
9-D.Kelley to NMS 35 for 9 yards (12-C.Mills).Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
5.4%
36-B.Franks to NMS 33 for 2 yards (99-D.Freeman).Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
4.9%
36-B.Franks to NMS 34 for -1 yard (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-1
4.9%
36-B.Franks to NMS 35 for -1 yard (80-T.Brohard).Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
4.6%
36-B.Franks to NMS 35 for no gain (80-T.Brohard).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 0:544% → 5%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
4.3%
10-J.Johnson complete to 7-T.Warner. 7-T.Warner to NMS 43 for 8 yards (8-K.Horton).Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
4.4%
22-E.Anderson to NMS 46 for 3 yards (8-K.Horton).Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
4.3%
10-J.Johnson complete to 7-T.Warner. 7-T.Warner to TSU 27 for 27 yards (16-J.Kemp).Similar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
5.3%
10-J.Johnson complete to 4-R.Downs. 4-R.Downs runs 27 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 3:0297% → 98%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
3.4%
9-D.Kelley runs ob at TSU 38 for 13 yards.Similar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
3.1%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 42 for 4 yards (21-J.Blowers).Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
2.9%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 42 for no gain (43-T.Milton).Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
2.3%
9-D.Kelley to TSU 42 for no gain (4-J.Ferguson).Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+33
2.3%
83-J.Walrath punts 33 yards from TSU 42 to NMS 25, fair catch by 4-R.Downs.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.6%
22-E.Anderson to NMS 29 for 4 yards (98-S.Walton).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-2.6
TD · Q1 11:43
10-C.Burston complete to 2-G.Douglas. 2-G.Douglas runs 86 yards for a touchdown.
-1.5
FG · Q3 2:01
84-E.Albertson 27 yards Field Goal is Good.
-0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com