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TLSA

Tulsa 34 at SMU 31

SMU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:14 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayleen Record at the SMU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense+2.6Pregame prior+15.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 11:02: Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +13.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:03: Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:00: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +16.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:50: Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +34.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:15SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49TLSA 4th & 14 at TLSA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:06SMU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:04TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:41SMU 4th & 18 at TLSA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:14TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:35SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.9
    90% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:32TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:07SMU 4th & 7 at TLSA 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.1%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:08SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:30TLSA 4th & 6 at SMU 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−7.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:00SMU 4th & 7 at TLSA 21, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:01TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−1.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:52SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:06TLSA 4th & 2 at SMU 9, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−1.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−9.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:24SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:41SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:40SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:06TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:16TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:02TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:03TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:00SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:50SMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3069% → 69%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
69.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.3%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Jaylon Thomas) to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q1 14:15
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Brendan Hall punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1231% → 31%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
69.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
69.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+1
69.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
69.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
69.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayleen Record at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3269% → 69%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
69.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 7 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
69.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
69.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 3
50
0
68.9%
Brendan Hall punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:1431% → 31%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
68.8%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
68.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 5 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 3
OWN 8
-11
68.9%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Trevor Denbow return for 11 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2430% → 29%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
70.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
70.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+3
70.6%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+6
70.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds , Jayleen Record returns for 6 yds to the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1771% → 72%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
71.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 18 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
71.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
71.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
71.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 16 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
71.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-15
71.9%
SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Rashee Rice) to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 25
OPP 27
+7
71.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 18
OPP 20
0
71.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
71.6%
Blake Mazza 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0929% → 28%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.0%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
71.0%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
71.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayleen Record at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:2272% → 83%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
72.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
72.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 12 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
72.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+12
73.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 12 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
73.3%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Alan Ali) to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 15
OPP 46
-2
73.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+18
73.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 18 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
73.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
73.7%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
73.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
74.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
74.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
73.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
73.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
74.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0419% → 17%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.5%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
82.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds, downed at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:1784% → 85%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
84.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
84.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
84.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+10
84.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 10 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
85.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
85.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
85.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-15
85.8%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
50
0
86.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
50
0
85.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 10
50
+3
85.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Brendan Hall punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 3:5416% → 27%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
84.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+15
84.3%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Johnson, Josh, PENALTY SMU pass interference 15 yards to the TULSA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
84.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 8 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
83.9%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
83.9%
Watkins, Anthony rush for loss of 3 yards to the TULSA39, PENALTY SMU personal foul 15 yards to the SMU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
83.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
83.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 7 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+5
83.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
83.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+13
82.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 13 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:2078% → 78%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
78.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaxon Player and Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 18
OWN 10
-1
79.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+9
78.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+7
77.9%
Brendan Hall punt for 39 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:1223% → 33%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
50
+18
77.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 18 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
66.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 32 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
68.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 8 yds to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5232% → 51%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.7%
Brooks, Shamari rush for no gain to the TULSA25, PENALTY TULSA holding (Couch, Dylan) 10 yards to the TULSA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+19
67.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 19 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
66.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
66.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
66.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 40 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
63.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
62.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+4
64.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
62.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 14 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.0%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:5955% → 58%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
54.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-2
53.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+31
52.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 31 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
57.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 13 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-16
58.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted Travon Fuller return for 16 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:0150% → 51%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
49.4%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
50
0
48.6%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Jimmy Phillips Jr. return for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5455% → 53%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.6%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
55.1%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
54.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ben ReddingSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
52.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Nolan Matthews-Harris, broken up by Justin WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:3954% → 72%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
46.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
46.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+16
45.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 16 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
43.9%
SMU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+15
43.5%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Johnson, Josh, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Massey, Bryan) 15 yards to the SMU3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q3 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4332% → 28%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.0%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
30.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
29.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
28.2%
Matt Fraanje punt for 35 yds, downed at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 5:3470% → 87%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
30.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Bryan MasseySimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
30.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+16
30.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 16 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
27.2%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
26.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+16
25.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 16 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
22.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
22.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:08
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-5
23.0%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 17
OPP 39
+18
23.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 18 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
22.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
21.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-5
21.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Gerard Wheeler) to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
19.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ezra Naylor IISimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+36
13.4%
Zack Long 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:2317% → 35%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
17.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 9 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
18.2%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
17.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Branson Hickman) to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+15
16.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
50
+16
18.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Carter Campbell, broken up by Tyon DavisSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
19.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
19.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
19.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Simon GonzalezSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
18.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+21
34.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4473% → 76%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
27.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 11 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
23.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
23.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos Santana, broken up by Delano RobinsonSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
24.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 60 yds, downed at the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:1129% → 22%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
28.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-5
28.7%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Hayden Howerton) to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-2
28.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Alan Ali) to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 14
OWN 3
+2
27.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+11
25.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+2
22.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-6
23.8%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
21.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted TieNeal Martin return for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3285% → 92%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
14.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 11 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
12.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
12.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
11.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
8.3%
Zack Long 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:058% → 42%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
8.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
7.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
8.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-5
7.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Branson Hickman) to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+44
6.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 44 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
8.1%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY TULSA holding 10 yards to the TULSA12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
8.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0582% → 94%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
18.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+15
16.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
15.0%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (13 Yards) to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
11.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-1
9.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-3
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:50
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+34.3
TD · Q4 11:00
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 5:03
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com