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HOU

Houston 45 at UConn 17

CONN
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds, downed at the Houst 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:31: Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 34 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +2.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Joe McFadden 25 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +2.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:08: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:02: Dalton Witherspoon 23 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:23CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56HOU 4th & 1 at CONN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:25CONN 4th & 9 at HOU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27HOU 4th & 2 at CONN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:34CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:39CONN 4th & 6 at HOU 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:40HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:17CONN 4th & 1 at HOU 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:38CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:02HOU 4th & 3 at CONN 5, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:16CONN 4th & 20 at HOU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:18HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:54CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 10, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:23HOU 4th & 6 at CONN 38, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:21HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:44HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:31CONN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:08HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:26HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:30CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:03HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevin Mensah for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
2.8%
Kevin Mensah run for no gain to the UConn 24Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
2.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 4 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
3.1%
Joe McFadden punt for 27 yds, downed at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:0297% → 97%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
3.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 2 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
3.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+9
3.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 9 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
3.1%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
3.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 8 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
3.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 31 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:204% → 4%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.5%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Keelan Marion for 12 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
3.5%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 35Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
3.5%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+3
3.5%
Steven Krajewski run for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
3.9%
Joe McFadden punt for 24 yds, downed at the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:0596% → 96%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
3.8%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+8
3.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 8 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the UConn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 6 yards to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+12
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 12 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+3
3.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-1
4.4%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:315% → 6%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
4.4%
Steven Krajewski run for 14 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
4.7%
Kevin Mensah run for 21 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
4.8%
Kevin Mensah run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
4.7%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+13
4.6%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Keelan Marion for 13 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
4.8%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Nathan Carter for 8 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+8
4.8%
Kevin Mensah run for 8 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
6.1%
Steven Krajewski run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.1%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.9%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
5.8%
Joe McFadden 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3394% → 94%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
5.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+42
5.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 42 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
5.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 8 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
5.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
5.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
5.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:536% → 6%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
6.2%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
6.1%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
6.1%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+21
6.3%
Joe McFadden punt for 38 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 21 yds to the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:5094% → 96%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
6.0%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
5.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+49
4.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 49 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 2:595% → 6%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
4.9%
Steven Krajewski run for 18 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
5.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 8 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+2
5.2%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
5.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
5.2%
KRAJEWSKI, Steven pass to the right complete for 5 yards to GILL, Jahkai to the UHO34 (NUNNERY, Mannie). PENALTY UHO Offsides on JONES, D'Anthony enforced 5 yards from the UHO39 to the UHO34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
5.3%
Kevin Mensah run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+8
5.2%
KRAJEWSKI, Steven pass to the left incomplete intended for MARION, Keelan thrown to the UHO28. PENALTY UHO Pass Interference on GREEN, Art enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the UHO26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.3%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
5.2%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+9
5.8%
Steven Krajewski run for 9 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-5
5.8%
QB Keeper KRAJEWSKI, Steven rush up the middle for no gain to the UHO17 (NWANKWO, Chidozie). PENALTY Before the snap, UCO False Start on ROCHESTER, Robby enforced 5 yards from the UHO17 to the UHO22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+3
5.8%
Steven Krajewski run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5996% → 94%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
4.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
4.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
4.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
4.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 4 ydsSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
6.1%
KRAJEWSKI, Steven scrambles up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the UHO11 (ANDERSON, Deontay). PENALTY UCO Holding on FORTIN, Christopher enforced 10 yards from the UHO25 to the UHO35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:096% → 9%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+1
6.1%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Brian Brewton for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 19
OPP 34
0
6.0%
Steven Krajewski pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+34
8.5%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 34 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 5:0993% → 95%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
7.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
7.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 1 yd to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
7.1%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
6.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
6.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
6.8%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the UConn 38Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+21
6.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 21 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
6.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 5 yds to the UConn 12Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+6
6.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the UConn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:117% → 9%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
6.6%
Steven Krajewski run for 9 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
7.0%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jay Rose for 4 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
7.0%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Logan Hall and Deontay Anderson for 0 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+5
6.8%
Micah Leon pass complete to Nathan Carter for 5 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
6.2%
Micah Leon pass complete to Jay Rose for 6 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+15
6.0%
Micah Leon pass complete to Jay Rose for 15 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
6.6%
LEON, Micah pass to the right incomplete intended for CLERCIUS, Kevens thrown to the UHO0. PENALTY UHO Pass Interference on HOGAN, Alex enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the UHO8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
8.9%
Joe McFadden 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4593% → 96%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
7.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 11 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
7.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
7.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 9 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
7.5%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the UConn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
7.4%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UConn 22Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
7.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 7 yds to the UConn 15Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
7.5%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UConn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
3.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:235% → 5%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
4.7%
Kevin Mensah run for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 27Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+3
4.6%
Micah Leon pass complete to Aaron Turner for 3 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
4.6%
Micah Leon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+9
4.6%
Joe McFadden punt for 45 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:3696% → 98%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
4.0%
Chandler Smith run for 5 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+34
3.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 34 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
3.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 15 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
3.5%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the UConn 11Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
3.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+6
3.7%
Chandler Smith run for 6 yds to the UConn 5Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
1.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 3:123% → 2%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
2.5%
Micah Leon pass complete to Jahkai Gill for 4 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+9
2.6%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.7%
Jay Rose sacked by Nelson Ceaser and Malik Robinson for 0 yards to the UConn 38Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 19
OWN 38
-9
2.5%
Micah Leon pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 28
OWN 29
0
2.4%
Micah Leon sacked by D'Anthony Jones for 0 yards to the UConn 20Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 37
OWN 20
0
2.2%
Joe McFadden punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
1.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 16 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
1.5%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
0.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 34 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:051% → 0%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.5%
Micah Leon run for 2 yds to the UConn 29Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
0.5%
Micah Leon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+11
0.5%
Micah Leon run for 11 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
0.5%
Micah Leon pass complete to Jay Rose for 1 yd to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+30
0.5%
Micah Leon pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 30 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
0.6%
Kevin Mensah run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 34
0
0.6%
Micah Leon sacked by Nelson Ceaser for 0 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 40
+1
0.5%
Micah Leon pass complete to Jay Rose for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 20
OPP 39
0
0.3%
Joe McFadden punt for 24 yds, downed at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20INT TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:46100% → 99%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
0.4%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 12 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
1.3%
Ike Ogbogu pass intercepted for a TD return for no gain for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
1.2%
Chandler Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
1.2%
Chandler Smith run for 3 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-2
1.2%
Ike Ogbogu run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
1.2%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds, downed at the UConn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
1.5%
Kevin Mensah run for 3 yds to the UConn 8Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+2
1.5%
Kevin Mensah run for 2 yds to the UConn 10Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
1.5%
Micah Leon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
1.5%
Joe McFadden punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the UConn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
1.0%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-15
1.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+12
1.0%
Mulbah Car run for 12 yds to the UConn 40Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+2
0.5%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
0.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
1.0%
pass complete to Jay Rose for 6 yds Jay Rose fumbled, forced by Jordan Carmouche, recovered by Houst Shaun LewisSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
0.9%
Micah Leon sacked for 0 yards to the UConn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
0.5%
Ike Ogbogu pass complete to Parker Eichenberger for 10 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
0.5%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the UConn 16Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+15
0.5%
Chandler Smith run for 15 yds to the UConn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Kevin Mensah run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Micah Leon sacked by Hakeem Ajijolaiya for 0 yards to the UConn 23Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
0.1%
Jacob Drena pass complete to Keelan Marion for 13 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Jacob Drena pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Jacob Drena sacked by Justin Beadles for 0 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 17
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Jacob Drena pass complete to Keelan Marion for 2 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Joe McFadden punt for 43 yds, downed at the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:08
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q2 6:31
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 34 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
+2.5
FG · Q2 0:01
Joe McFadden 25 yd FG GOOD
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com