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CIN

Cincinnati 35 at East Carolina 13

ECU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:19 · Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cincy 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+1.0Pregame prior−27.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:32: Jerome Ford 2 Yd Run (Christian Lowery Kick) — CIN win probability +5.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:40: Alec Pierce 28 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Christian Lowery Kick) — CIN win probability +8.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:18: Owen Daffer 44 Yd Field Goal — ECU win probability +3.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:17: Ahmad Gardner 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Christian Lowery Kick) — CIN win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:38: Jsi Hatfield 12 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick) — ECU win probability +6.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:40ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:06CIN 4th & 25 at ECU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29ECU 4th & 10 at CIN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:13CIN 4th & 9 at ECU 29, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:19ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:59ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 42, down 11
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:50ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:42ECU 4th & 21 at ECU 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:16CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:39ECU 4th & 5 at CIN 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:18ECU 4th & 12 at CIN 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:21CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 8, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:46ECU 4th & 1 at CIN 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−3.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:35CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 39, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:19ECU 4th & 13 at ECU 49, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:31ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 48, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 13:48CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:32CIN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:40CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:17CIN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:38ECU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:44CIN Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
17.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
18.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
18.1%
Jonn Young punt blocked by Ryan Royer, recovered by ECUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:3482% → 80%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
18.0%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+18
18.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 18 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
18.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+4
18.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-4
18.9%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 15
OPP 17
-10
19.4%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 25
OPP 27
+45
20.1%
Alex Bales 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:3720% → 23%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
20.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
20.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
20.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 19 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
21.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
21.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 12 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
21.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
22.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Cincy 23Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
22.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
22.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
23.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
22.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
23.2%
Owen Daffer 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:1377% → 74%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
23.3%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
23.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+4
23.8%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+24
24.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 24 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
23.8%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
24.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+3
24.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
26.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5426% → 26%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
26.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan JonesSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
26.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
26.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan JonesSimilar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
26.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:3173% → 77%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
26.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
27.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 6 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+19
27.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 19 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
26.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+44
23.1%
Leonard Taylor 44 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Christian Lowery Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0324% → 24%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
24.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 1 yd to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
24.7%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Curtis Brooks and Jowon Briggs for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
24.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:0976% → 81%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
23.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 53 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
23.6%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.6%
Jerome Ford 2 Yd Run (Christian Lowery Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3320% → 19%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
19.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
20.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
20.6%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
19.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:1980% → 90%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
19.7%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+2
20.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+24
19.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 24 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
19.3%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
19.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
18.8%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete to Scott, Tyler, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Fleming, Malik) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
18.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 18 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
10.1%
Alec Pierce 28 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Christian Lowery Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5013% → 13%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
13.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
13.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3589% → 91%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
10.9%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
10.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
10.1%
Jerome Ford run for 29 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
9.8%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
9.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
8.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+5
8.8%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the ECaro 9 Jerome Ford fumbled, forced by Teagan Wilk, recovered by ECaro Ja'Quan McMillian, return for 5 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:5412% → 12%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
12.0%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY CINCINNATI offside 5 yards to the EASTCRLINA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 5
OWN 14
+2
12.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
12.1%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+9
12.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
12.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:0690% → 90%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
10.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+26
9.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
9.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Ryan MontgomerySimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
9.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
9.8%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Warren Saba return for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:0812% → 11%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
12.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
12.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
11.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
11.8%
Harris, Rahjai rush for 5 yards to the CINCINNATI38, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding (Frye, Fernando) 10 yards to the EASTCRLINA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
11.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 20
OWN 47
-1
10.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 21
OWN 46
0
10.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 21
OWN 46
0
10.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2691% → 91%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
9.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+21
8.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 21 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
8.6%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
8.6%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
8.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
8.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:5810% → 12%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
9.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+15
9.8%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Snead, Tyler, PENALTY CINCINNATI unnecessary roughness (Bush, Arquon) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
10.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+20
10.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 20 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
11.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 3 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
11.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
10.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+5
10.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 5 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
10.7%
Tyler Snead pass complete to Holton Ahlers for no gain to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
10.4%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-5
9.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 17
OPP 31
0
8.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 17
OPP 31
+5
8.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
12.1%
Owen Daffer 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5191% → 92%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
9.4%
Ford, Jerome rush for 4 yards to the CINCINNATI22, PENALTY CINCINNATI holding 9 yards to the CINCINNATI9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 19
OWN 9
-2
9.4%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 21
OWN 7
0
9.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 21
OWN 7
+1
9.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 20
OWN 8
0
8.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:0413% → 2%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
13.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
12.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
13.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+8
11.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 8 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
12.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 25 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
13.8%
Ahlers, Holton pass complete to Snead, Tyler for 3 yards to the CINCINNATI2, PENALTY EASTCRLINA holding 10 yards to the CINCINNATI15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-2
11.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 0
OPP 17
0
12.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 0
OPP 17
0
10.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan JonesSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+60
2.2%
Ahmad Gardner 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Christian Lowery Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:392% → 9%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
2.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
2.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
50
+38
2.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 38 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
8.5%
Jsi Hatfield 12 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5895% → 96%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
5.0%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 41 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 14
OWN 31
+4
5.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
4.9%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
4.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
4.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.1%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Darrian Beavers return for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0796% → 97%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
4.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
4.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 20 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
3.8%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
3.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.5%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted, touchback. Warren Saba return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:015% → 3%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Ryan JonesSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
4.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+28
3.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 28 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
3.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Joel Dublanko for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
3.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
3.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 13
OWN 49
-10
3.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Jabari Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 39 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Jabari Taylor, recovered by Cincy Marcus Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:3598% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
2.4%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
2.2%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
2.2%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
1.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 25 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Ryan Montgomery 2 Yd Run (Christian Lowery Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:401% → 1%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
0.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
50
0
0.6%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:40
Alec Pierce 28 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Christian Lowery Kick)
-8.6
TD · Q4 11:17
Ahmad Gardner 60 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Christian Lowery Kick)
-8
TD · Q4 9:38
Jsi Hatfield 12 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com