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USF

South Florida 13 at UCF 17

UCF
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:39 · Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+32.3Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score differential−0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Timmy McClain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +5.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +5.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:51: Daniel Obarski 32 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +5.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q4 0:27: Timmy McClain sacked by William Wells for 0 yards to the UCF 31 — USF win probability +10.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 00:27 — UCF win probability +9.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:23UCF 4th & 4 at USF 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:39USF 4th & 27 at USF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11USF 4th & 2 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:49UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:56USF 4th & 7 at USF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07UCF 4th & 16 at USF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:27USF 4th & 3 at UCF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:18USF 4th & 15 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:24UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:18USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:53USF 4th & 8 at UCF 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:01UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:17USF 4th & 18 at UCF 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.6
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−6.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:56UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15USF 4th & 14 at USF 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−5.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:51UCF 4th & 8 at USF 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−13.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:56USF 4th & 7 at UCF 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−1.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:43UCF 4th & 9 at USF 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:16UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:11UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:3785% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
84.8%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
84.8%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+20
84.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 20 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
84.4%
Trillion Coles run for 6 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
84.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
84.3%
Amari Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
84.0%
Daniel Obarski 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4416% → 16%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 9 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
83.7%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
83.8%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 27
OWN 19
0
83.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:2384% → 85%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
83.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
83.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 15 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
83.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 17 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
83.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
83.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+23
83.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 23 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
83.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.8%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:1116% → 22%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
84.0%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-3
84.1%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 15
OWN 23
0
84.2%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the right complete for -5 yards to WEAVER, Xavier caught at the USF19 and advanced to the USF18 (BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY UCF Offsides on BRYANT, Big Kat declined UCF Personal Foul on BROWDER, Charlie enforced 15 yards from the USF23 to the USF38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
83.5%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left complete for 18 yards to WEAVER, Xavier caught at the UCF32 and advanced to the UCF30 (THORNTON, Corey). PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JENNINGS, Donovan enforced 5 yards from the UCF48 to the USF47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+12
83.9%
Brian Battie run for 12 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
83.6%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+4
83.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
83.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
83.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
83.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 15 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.3%
Timmy McClain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1181% → 79%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.5%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
80.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+13
79.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 56 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 13 yds to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5321% → 20%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
79.3%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
79.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
79.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
79.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 33 yds, downed at the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7MISSED FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:4981% → 78%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+33
80.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 33 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
81.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-3
81.4%
Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Mikey Keene for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-4
80.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 16
OPP 27
+45
78.4%
Daniel Obarski 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 5:4922% → 25%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
77.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
77.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
76.8%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
76.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.2%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the UCF33; QB hurried by MORRIS-BRASH, Tre'mon. PENALTY USF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JENNINGS, Donovan UCF Personal Foul on JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.2%
Timmy McClain sacked by Big Kat Bryant for 0 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+2
77.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+10
75.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 10 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+12
74.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chris Carter for 12 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
71.2%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-6
72.3%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+48
75.0%
Spencer Shrader 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5477% → 76%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
77.4%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
77.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-5
76.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+5
76.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
76.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
75.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0626% → 27%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
73.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
73.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+39
73.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 39 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:0779% → 83%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
78.6%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
77.4%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+12
76.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
77.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
82.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 6:0718% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
80.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
81.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
81.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 17 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
79.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
80.3%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+2
79.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
79.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
78.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-5
78.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Yusuf Terry) to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
78.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
80.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
75.9%
Spencer Shrader 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4678% → 76%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
78.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
78.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
77.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
76.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:4425% → 28%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
74.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+25
75.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 25 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
72.3%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+18
73.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 18 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
72.2%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
72.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-5
73.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
73.4%
Timmy McClain sacked by Divaad Wilson for 0 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 18
OPP 19
+36
72.4%
Spencer Shrader 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2172% → 69%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
72.1%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
70.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jaylon Robinson) to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
70.1%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 9 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4130% → 28%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
69.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-1
68.8%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
70.9%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 27 fumbled, recovered by SFla Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
72.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:2471% → 79%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+26
70.7%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 26 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
74.7%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
74.6%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 8 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
75.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+15
75.6%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 15 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
75.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-5
76.0%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 14Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
74.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
79.3%
Daniel Obarski 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4924% → 25%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
75.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+16
75.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 16 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
73.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
71.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-5
73.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jimmy Horn Jr.) to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
75.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1382% → 86%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
82.3%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
81.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+42
80.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 42 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
85.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+2
90.5%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 2 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
89.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
89.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 25 yds, downed at the SFla 11Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
85.8%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Big Kat Bryant) to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21END OF GAME
16 plays · 80 yds · 2:4315% → 19%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+10
85.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 10 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.3%
Timmy McClain sacked by Ricky Barber for 0 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+5
87.3%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left intercepted by WILSON, Divaad at the USF47. Wilson return for 11 yards to the USF36 (WILLIS, Holden). PENALTY UCF Offsides on BRYANT, Big Kat enforced 5 yards from the USF18 to the USF23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
87.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+30
87.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 30 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
81.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Timmy McClain) to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+35
85.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 35 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.6%
Timmy McClain sacked by William Wells for 0 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 24
OPP 31
+5
85.2%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Ricky Barber) to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+9
84.4%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+14
85.2%
Timmy McClain run for 14 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
81.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.9%
Timmy McClain sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for 0 yards to the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.1
SACK · Q4 0:27
Timmy McClain sacked by William Wells for 0 yards to the UCF 31
-10.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27
Timeout SOUTH FLORIDA, clock 00:27
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com