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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:11 · Adam Barry punt for 47 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:44: Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:52: Zack Long 47 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:59: Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:29: Davis Brin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:13: Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK) — TEM win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 12:40TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 44, tiedClose callPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:35TLSA 4th & 12 at TEM 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.223% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%64% to makePunt88.8%−0.9average punt
- Q1 2:11TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snapGo for it10.0%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q1 0:37TLSA 4th & 2 at TEM 41, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.6%57% to convertField goal88.9%−0.732% to makePunt89.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:13TLSA 4th & 1 at TEM 13, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.3%71% to convertField goal88.7%−0.685% to makePunt86.6%−2.7average punt
- Q2 11:08TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q2 8:52TLSA 4th & 9 at TEM 29, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%58% to makePunt91.6%−1.9average punt
- Q2 6:33TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 48, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.4%average punt
- Q2 4:44TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 27, up 20Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:33TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 43, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 14:46TEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%71% to convertField goal2.5%−0.575% to makePunt0.9%−2.1average punt
- Q3 8:40TEM 4th & 14 at TLSA 16, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.416% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%81% to makePunt-0.6%−1.3average punt
- Q3 3:42TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 36, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q3 1:15TEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 43, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%70% to convertField goal0.9%−0.628% to makePunt1.1%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:56TLSA 4th & 8 at TEM 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%56% to makePunt98.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:56TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 43, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:24TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 48, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:29TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 39, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:29TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 39, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:53TEM 4th & 6 at TLSA 31, down 34Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%−<0.154% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:06TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:44TLSA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:59TLSA Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:29TLSA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:13TEM Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:11TLSA Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTLSADrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 32 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
50
+32
81.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 32 yds to the Temp 18 Shamari Brooks fumbled, forced by DaeSean Winston, recovered by Temp Cameron RuizSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+37
80.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 37 yds to the Temp 18 Shamari Brooks fumbled, forced by DaeSean Winston, recovered by Temp Cameron RuizSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:208% → 9%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+10
91.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jordan Smith for 10 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
91.2%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD7 plays · 83 yds · 2:3491% → 91%
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+25
91.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 25 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Randle Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
91.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 30 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
91.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 21 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4INT7 plays · 47 yds · 2:249% → 10%
Q1 9:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
91.0%
David Martin-Robinson run for 13 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
90.9%
Lynch,Justin pass incomplete to Barbon,Jose QB hurried by Farniok,Will PENALTY TLS Personal Foul (Farniok,Will) 15 yards from TLS48 to TLS33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FG12 plays · 73 yds · 4:0091% → 90%
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+16
90.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 16 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
90.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 16 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
90.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 26 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2410% → 10%
Q1 2:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
90.4%
Adam Barry punt for 47 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD17 plays · 69 yds · 4:2790% → 94%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
90.2%
Brin,Davis pass incomplete to Santana,JuanCarlos PENALTY TEM Holding (Salla,Bobby) 10 yards from TLS31 to TLS41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+7
90.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 7 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+8
90.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
94.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:287% → 7%
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.1%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 5 yds to the Temp 29Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+2
93.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 2 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+10
93.1%
Adam Barry punt for 50 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 10 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FG7 plays · 42 yds · 2:1694% → 96%
TEMDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:105% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4996% → 96%
TEMDrive 12DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 2:114% → 4%
TLSADrive 13TD6 plays · 42 yds · 1:3497% → 99%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
96.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+11
97.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 11 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
97.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 17 yds to the Temp 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 10 yds · 0:531% → 1%
TEMDrive 15FG15 plays · 66 yds · 6:062% → 2%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
97.8%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 5 yds to the Temp 23Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
97.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+20
97.5%
Justin Lynch pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 20 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.5%
Justin Lynch pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
97.5%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 11 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
97.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 7 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
97.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 14:46
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+8
97.0%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:46
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-4
97.4%
Justin Lynch sacked by Treyvon Reeves for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD7 plays · 68 yds · 1:0598% → 100%
Q3 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+15
97.7%
Brin,Davis pass incomplete to Santana,JuanCarlos PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Winston,DaeSean) 15 yards from TLS35 to TLS50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
50
+42
97.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 42 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:160% → 2%
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Wright) to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+15
99.5%
TULSA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.7%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 28 yds · 2:272% → 2%
Q3 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
98.2%
TULSA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-4
98.5%
Justin Lynch sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20FG9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
98.7%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Couch,Dylan) 5 yards from TLS47 to TLS42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+10
98.7%
Brin,Davis pass incomplete to Johnson,Josh PENALTY TEM Holding (Tyler,Amir) 10 yards from TLS47 to TEM43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
98.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 25 yds · 3:320% → 0%
Q4 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Kadas Reams for 10 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Kadas Reams for 4 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Adam Barry run for 15 yds to the TULSA 42 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Adam Barry) to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD4 plays · 50 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for no gain to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jordan Smith for 5 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · 33 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
TEMDrive 25MISSED FG9 plays · 31 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Edward Saydee for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 10 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:44
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 5:13
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Rory Bell KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q3 7:29
Davis Brin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+1.8