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ECU

East Carolina 38 at Navy 35

NAVY
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:03 · Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the Navy 40 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Rayuan Lane, recovered by ECaro Holton Ahlers for a 1ST down , return for 5 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−4.2Home team on offense+3.3Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:18: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +15.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:03: Carlinos Acie run for 90 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +27.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:33: Owen Daffer kickoff for 63 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 98 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +29.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:01: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 28 yds for a TD (Holton Ahlers pass to C.J. Johnson for Two-Point Conversion) — ECU win probability +39.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Owen Daffer 54 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +38.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q2 11:13ECU 4th & 1 at NAVY 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−4.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:29ECU 4th & 8 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−4.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:18ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:40ECU 4th & 2 at NAVY 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−12.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:47NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at NAVY 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−3.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:03ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.8%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:47ECU 4th & 1 at NAVY 7, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%−4.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−17.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:01ECU 4th & 4 at NAVY 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:24NAVY 4th & 10 at ECU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:14ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:01NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:58ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:13NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:11NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:18ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:03NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:01ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4668% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
32.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 23 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
32.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
32.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
32.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 20 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
32.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 6 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
32.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 5:1333% → 36%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
32.6%
Carlinos Acie run for 14 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
32.7%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
32.7%
James Harris II run for 8 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
32.8%
James Harris II run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
32.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
32.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
33.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 27 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
33.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
33.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:0365% → 68%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
35.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-3
35.2%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+24
35.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
50
-5
34.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
35.3%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+13
35.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 13 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
34.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
31.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 40 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4533% → 42%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.2%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Isaac RuossSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
33.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 17 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
34.1%
NAVY Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+4
33.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
33.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
34.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
34.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
35.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+20
35.2%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 20 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
35.1%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
35.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
42.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:4461% → 63%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
39.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 12 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
39.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-7
37.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Nishad Strother) to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+28
38.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 28 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
37.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
36.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
37.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
38.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
36.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 3 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-1
36.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
37.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Jamal GlennSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
37.1%
Owen Daffer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:1838% → 53%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
38.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Elijah Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+11
37.6%
Carlinos Acie run for 11 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
39.8%
Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Smith) to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
40.7%
James Harris II run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
41.6%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
41.6%
Chance Warren run for 8 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
52.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 19 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 1:5351% → 64%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
49.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for no gain to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
49.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 5 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+67
49.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 54 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (Michael McMorris) to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
44.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+7
44.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-1
47.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+5
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.9%
James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
39.4%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.8%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
40.1%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
40.4%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
42.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
42.2%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-2
41.8%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
38.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 78 yds · 0:0062% → 64%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
37.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 15 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 5 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
35.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
35.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
35.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 22 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
33.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
33.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+11
35.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 11 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
33.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
33.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
33.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
34.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
39.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 3Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+1
39.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+3
38.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 7
+5
37.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3866% → 63%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
34.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
34.5%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
36.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
37.2%
Jonn Young punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
1 play · 90 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+90
64.6%
Carlinos Acie run for 90 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:1639% → 45%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
60.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
62.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+11
63.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 11 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+7
59.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the Navy 40 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Rayuan Lane, recovered by ECaro Holton Ahlers for a 1ST down , return for 5 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Tyler FletcherSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
56.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+18
56.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 18 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
54.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
54.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+8
57.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
55.0%
Owen Daffer 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3216% → 53%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
83.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Jireh Wilson) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+27
85.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 27 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
80.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+9
80.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.2%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
79.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+5
81.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+28
46.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 28 yds for a TD (Holton Ahlers pass to C.J. Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:3755% → 59%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
54.9%
Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+22
55.1%
Carlinos Acie run for 22 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
59.2%
James Harris II run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
60.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
61.6%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
61.5%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+7
60.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 7 yds Mark Walker fumbled, forced by Ja'Quan McMillian, recovered by NavySimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
57.5%
NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
58.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:1148% → 94%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
51.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+46
52.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 46 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
39.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-5
39.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jireh Wilson) to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+54
5.6%
Owen Daffer 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:01
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 28 yds for a TD (Holton Ahlers pass to C.J. Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)
-39.6
FG · Q4 0:00
Owen Daffer 54 yd FG GOOD
-38.7
TD · Q4 8:33
Owen Daffer kickoff for 63 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 98 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+29.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com