Try the model
SMU

SMU 14 at Cincinnati 48

CIN
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:15 · Brendan Hall punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.2Pregame prior+25.9Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:54: Tyler Scott 53 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick) — CIN win probability +0.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:32: Jerome Ford 4 Yd Run (Alex Bales Kick) — CIN win probability +3.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:37: Desmond Ridder 40 Yd Run (Alex Bales PAT failed) — CIN win probability +4.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:19: Alec Pierce 17 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick) — CIN win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:59: Desmond Ridder 5 Yd pass from Jordan Jones (Alex Bales Kick) — CIN win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:01SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:47CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:30SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37CIN 4th & 1 at SMU 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−2.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:10SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 6, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:06CIN 4th & 11 at SMU 16, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:19SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:28CIN 4th & 8 at SMU 20, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:43SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 5, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:20CIN 4th & 1 at SMU 19, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:28SMU 4th & 15 at CIN 26, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:25CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 21, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 46, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:04SMU 4th & 1 at CIN 4, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:54CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:32CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:37CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:19CIN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:59CIN Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:44CIN Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:06CIN Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:32SMU Touchdown, down 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:17SMU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5123% → 23%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
77.4%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Beau Morris) to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
77.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
77.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+22
77.1%
Brendan Hall punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 22 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
77.7%
Tyler Scott 53 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3323% → 22%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
77.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
77.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
77.7%
Brendan Hall punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2478% → 78%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
77.8%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
77.9%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
77.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
77.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reggie Roberson Jr. at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0922% → 22%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
77.6%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
77.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-8
77.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+12
78.0%
Brendan Hall punt blocked by Wilson Huber blocked by Wilson HuberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:5078% → 81%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
78.2%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+10
78.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 10 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
78.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
78.4%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
78.2%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.4%
Jerome Ford 4 Yd Run (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FUMBLE
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:4620% → 20%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
80.1%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
79.9%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
79.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 6 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
79.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
80.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
80.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete, broken up by Deshawn PaceSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-15
80.2%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Goffney, Dylan, PENALTY SMU illegal block 15 yards to the SMU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+5
81.0%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Goffney, Dylan, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside (Taylor, Jabari) 5 yards to the CINCINNATI47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+13
81.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for 13 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
79.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
79.7%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22 Tre Siggers fumbled, forced by Coby Bryant, recovered by Cincy Marcus BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:5582% → 88%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+25
82.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 25 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
82.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
83.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
83.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
87.8%
Desmond Ridder 40 Yd Run (Alex Bales PAT failed)Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
87.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3311% → 11%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
88.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
89.0%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Wilson Huber for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+3
89.5%
Brendan Hall punt for 52 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3490% → 94%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
89.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
89.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 11 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
90.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
90.2%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
90.2%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
90.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 19 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
91.0%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
93.7%
Alec Pierce 17 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:524% → 3%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
95.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
95.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-9
96.5%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 16
OWN 6
+27
96.9%
Brendan Hall punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 27 yds to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5597% → 98%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
96.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 5 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
96.9%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
97.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+3
97.2%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
97.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+1
97.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+8
97.5%
Alex Bales 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Terrance Newman Brandon Crossley return for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:432% → 2%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
98.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
98.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Brendan Hall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:4298% → 98%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
97.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 22 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
97.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 23 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Chace CromartieSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
98.1%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
98.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Jahari RogersSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
98.3%
Alex Bales 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:192% → 2%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.3%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:5198% → 99%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
98.3%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+10
98.5%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
98.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+16
98.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 16 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
98.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 39 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-4
98.8%
Ford, Jerome rush for 1 yard to the SMU0, PENALTY CINCINNATI false start (Taylor, Leonard) 4 yards to the SMU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Desmond Ridder 5 Yd pass from Jordan Jones (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
99.2%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Rice, Rashee, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Roberson Jr., Reggie) 7 yards to the SMU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 17
OWN 7
-2
99.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 19
OWN 5
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 19
OWN 5
0
99.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 19
OWN 5
+11
99.3%
Brendan Hall punt for 48 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 11 yds to the SMU 42 Ryan Montgomery fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ryan MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle, broken up by Jimmy Phillips Jr.Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
99.4%
Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.4%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+2
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.6%
Alec Pierce 17 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin Upshaw, broken up by Darrian BeaversSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+14
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.6%
Tre Siggers run for 12 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.6%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Roderick Daniels Jr.Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-5
99.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 15
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+44
99.7%
Blake Mazza 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Arquon BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 6:13100% → 100%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
99.7%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tyler Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+11
99.7%
Charles McClelland run for 11 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
99.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Joe Huber) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+33
99.8%
Evan Prater run for 33 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.8%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
99.8%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Charles McClellandSimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+5
99.8%
Evan Prater run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+6
99.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.8%
Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+6
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-5
99.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Noah Davis) to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Jordan Jones 11 Yd pass from Evan Prater (Alex Bales Kick)Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Tunstall) to the Cincy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
99.9%
Tre Siggers run for 16 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin Upshaw, broken up by Bryon ThreatsSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+13
99.9%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Goffney, Dylan, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Sheppard, Jaquan) 13 yards to the CINCINNATI33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 30 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Mordecai, Tanner pass incomplete to Rice, Rashee, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Sheppard, Jaquan) 1 yards to the CINCINNATI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Tre Siggers 2 Yd Run (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Cody Lamb) to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Evan Prater run for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:370% → 0%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
100.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Barker for 21 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
100.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
100.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
100.0%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Rashee Rice 3 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
100.0%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:37
Desmond Ridder 40 Yd Run (Alex Bales PAT failed)
+4.9
TD · Q1 5:32
Jerome Ford 4 Yd Run (Alex Bales Kick)
+3.2
TD · Q2 8:19
Alec Pierce 17 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Alex Bales Kick)
+2.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com