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MEM

Memphis 13 at Houston 31

HOU
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2021 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior+12.9Garbage-time factor+2.9Score differential+4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:03: Alton McCaskill 36 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick) — HOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:40: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 19 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:53: Clayton Tune run for 20 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +4.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:31: Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds for a TD, (David Kemp KICK) — MEM win probability +11.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:43: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 10:54MEM 4th & 21 at HOU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:47HOU 4th & 2 at MEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:49HOU 4th & 9 at MEM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:16MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:55MEM 4th & 5 at HOU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 42, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 1 at HOU 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−2.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:06HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:54MEM 4th & 1 at HOU 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−1.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:22HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52MEM 4th & 4 at HOU 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−6.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:34MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:01HOU 4th & 4 at MEM 42, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:39MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 14, down 8
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:24HOU 4th & 2 at MEM 17, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−0.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−5.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:35MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 18, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:00MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:03HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:40HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:53HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:31MEM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:43HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:3125% → 26%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
74.8%
Seth Henigan sacked by Derek Parish and Logan Hall for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+22
74.7%
Gabriel Rogers run for 22 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
74.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
74.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
74.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
73.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-6
73.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 16
OPP 39
-5
74.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 21
OPP 44
0
74.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
13 plays · 0 yds · 6:1774% → 73%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
74.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 9 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 17
0
73.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
73.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
73.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
73.9%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
73.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
73.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 6 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+8
73.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-9
73.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 19
OWN 36
+10
72.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-10
72.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+20
72.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 20 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
73.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:1373% → 72%
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
73.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake HerslowSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
72.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+2
72.5%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
73.4%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
73.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-10
72.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+8
72.0%
Ike Ogbogu run for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
71.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2629% → 29%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
70.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 16 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
69.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
69.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+2
69.9%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
70.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+13
70.9%
Joe Doyle punt blocked by Ja'Kori Morgan blocked by Ja'Kori Morgan Elijah Gooden return for 13 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
76.9%
Alton McCaskill 36 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2925% → 24%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
75.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
75.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 12 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
74.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
74.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
50
0
74.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Khi MathieuSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
50
-4
74.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-1
75.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
76.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 93 yds · 4:2076% → 84%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
76.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-1
76.0%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+16
75.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 16 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
76.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 9 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+7
77.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
77.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
78.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+1
77.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (JJ Russell) to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
77.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
50
+31
77.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 31 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
84.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 19 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:4118% → 20%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
82.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 17 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
82.2%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
81.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
81.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
81.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 18 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
81.0%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
81.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Marquavius WeaverSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
80.4%
David Kemp 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4382% → 89%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
82.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+28
82.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the HOUSTON 47 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
84.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+15
83.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 15 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.8%
Clayton Tune run for 20 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 0:4312% → 13%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Asa MartinSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
88.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
88.1%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+10
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
86.9%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
86.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3989% → 91%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
88.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
90.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12INT
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:1511% → 13%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
89.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+36
88.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 36 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
87.2%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for no gain to the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:4392% → 94%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
92.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+7
92.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
92.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 29 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
93.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 20
OWN 46
-10
93.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 30
OWN 36
+6
93.0%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+14
93.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 14 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+19
93.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 19 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-25
94.1%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Rodney Owens return for 25 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
15 plays · 60 yds · 4:069% → 19%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
91.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
91.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
91.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 7 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
91.2%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
91.2%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+8
91.5%
Gabriel Rogers pass complete to Seth Henigan for 8 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
91.8%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+1
92.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 1 yd to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
91.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for 5 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-5
92.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
92.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Marquavius WeaverSimilar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
93.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+11
93.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
92.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (6 Yards) to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds for a TD, (David Kemp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4787% → 87%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
86.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 16 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
87.4%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
87.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by Xavier Cullens for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 15
OWN 40
-2
86.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds , Koby Drake returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:3013% → 17%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
86.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
85.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Khi Mathieu for 13 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
84.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Cameron Fleming for 14 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+29
83.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 29 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
83.3%
David Kemp 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17INT
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:5687% → 90%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
87.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 13 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.7%
Clayton Tune run for 11 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
89.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
89.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 4 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
88.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 6 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.4%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+22
89.6%
Clayton Tune run for 22 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
90.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
89.8%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback. JJ Russell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4912% → 11%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
87.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
88.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Khi MathieuSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
88.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+25
89.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 25 yds to the Memph 48 Marcus Jones fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0491% → 91%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
91.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
90.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5911% → 9%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
88.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 3 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+2
89.4%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
90.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+4
90.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 36 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5794% → 96%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
94.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 21 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
94.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
94.5%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+2
94.9%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
95.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:374% → 4%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.8%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-6
95.9%
Seth Henigan sacked by Derek Parish for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
96.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
96.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4597% → 99%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
96.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+11
97.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24Uncategorized
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:582% → 2%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.4%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
98.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Khi MathieuSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+16
98.5%
Marquavius Weaver run for 16 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
98.3%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Jones return for no gainSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
98.3%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:31
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds for a TD, (David Kemp KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 5:40
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 19 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 14:03
Alton McCaskill 36 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com