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UCF

UCF 28 at SMU 55

SMU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Andrew Brito run for 9 yds to the SMU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:32: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 56 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +3.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:12: Tre Siggers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:00: Tre Siggers run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +10.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:01: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +5.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:47: Mark-Antony Richards 58 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick) — UCF win probability +5.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:54SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:03UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:16UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:16SMU 4th & 11 at UCF 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:21UCF 4th & 21 at UCF 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−2.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:42UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05UCF 4th & 10 at SMU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:46SMU 4th & 3 at UCF 48, up 16
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:41UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 3, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:49SMU 4th & 11 at UCF 36, up 16
    Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:36UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 46, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:00UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 1, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:17SMU 4th & 12 at UCF 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:27SMU 4th & 4 at UCF 4, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:23UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:38SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:33UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:32SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:12SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:00SMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:01SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:47UCF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0668% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
68.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-2
68.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:3132% → 33%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
68.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 14 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
68.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
67.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:3768% → 68%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.6%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
67.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 11 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
67.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 24 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+33
67.8%
Tre Siggers run for 33 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
67.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-2
67.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
68.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3932% → 32%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
67.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
67.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+53
67.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 53 yds, downed at the SMU 14 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce McMorris) to the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2167% → 67%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
67.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
67.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
67.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.9%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Ricky Barber for 0 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
67.7%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
67.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted return for no gain to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0534% → 37%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
66.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 8 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
66.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SMU 6Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
62.6%
Parker Navarro run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 1:0164% → 68%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
63.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+10
63.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
67.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 56 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 3:2933% → 34%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, downed at the SMU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 0:5167% → 72%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
67.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+22
67.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
68.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
68.1%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+5
67.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
68.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+9
67.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+10
67.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 10 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.3%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4429% → 28%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
70.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 5 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
70.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+10
70.9%
Mikey Keene run for 10 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-15
70.7%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right complete for 5 yards to O'KEEFE, Ryan caught at the UCF34 and advanced to the UCF39 (HAILEY, Shaine). PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Jaylon enforced 15 yards to the UCF19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+6
71.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
72.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, downed at the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:0072% → 74%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
71.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
72.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 3 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
72.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+30
71.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
73.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+21
72.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 21 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
73.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
72.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
74.4%
Blake Mazza 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:5525% → 23%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
75.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
75.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
75.3%
Mikey Keene sacked by Elijah Chatman for 0 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 21
OWN 15
0
77.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reggie Roberson Jr. at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:2177% → 87%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
77.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
77.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
77.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+12
76.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 12 yds to the UCF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
86.9%
Tre Siggers run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1517% → 16%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
83.3%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 6 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
82.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+4
84.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. returns for 4 yds to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 2:4187% → 94%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
87.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 10 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
87.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
87.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
87.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
87.7%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+16
87.5%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
88.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
93.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:469% → 8%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+22
91.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 22 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
90.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
91.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
92.2%
Daniel Obarski 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:138% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.2%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
91.9%
Mikey Keene run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
91.9%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
91.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+58
86.6%
Mark-Antony Richards 58 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:5687% → 88%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
87.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
86.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+49
86.9%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for 49 yards to RICE, Rashee caught at the SMU48 and advanced to the SMU48 (JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on GOFFNEY, Dylan UCF Targeting on JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+10
86.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 10 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Brendan Hall punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 9:41
4TH & 15
OWN 3
+3
88.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. returns for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5289% → 87%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
89.1%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
89.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
87.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
87.1%
Brendan Hall punt for 35 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
87.2%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right complete for 9 yards to RICHARDS, Mark-Antony caught at the UCF4 and advanced to the UCF10 (SLADE-MATAUTIA, Isaac), out of bounds. PENALTY UCF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCHNEIDER, Cole enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the UCF1 to the UCF0 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
87.2%
KEENE, Mikey pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Brandon broken up by KERLEY, Jordan at the UCF35 (After review, play stands as called on the field). PENALTY SMU Personal Foul on MOORE, Richard enforced 15 yards from the UCF1 to the UCF16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1313% → 13%
Q3 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+2
87.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 2 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+28
87.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 28 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
85.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+13
86.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 13 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
85.0%
Mikey Keene sacked by Elijah Chatman for 0 yards to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
87.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Reggie Roberson Jr. at the SMU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:1392% → 93%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+26
91.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 26 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
92.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 14 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
92.4%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
93.1%
Reggie Roberson Jr. 24 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2310% → 9%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
90.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 10
OWN 1
0
91.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds , returns for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:3893% → 94%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
93.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
93.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+12
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 12 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
93.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
93.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 6 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
94.2%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.2%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.1%
Tre Siggers 4 Yd Run (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:128% → 10%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.6%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
90.7%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 6 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
90.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+36
91.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 36 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
88.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 22 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.7%
Mark-Antony Richards 4 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:5395% → 96%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
95.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 32 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
95.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+12
95.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 12 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
95.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-8
95.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
96.1%
Blake Mazza 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:495% → 5%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by DeVere Levelston for 0 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
95.1%
Mikey Keene sacked for 0 yards to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:0197% → 98%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-10
96.8%
LAVINE, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the UCF7 (BULLARD, Quadric). PENALTY SMU Holding on REDDING, Ben enforced 10 yards from the UCF18 to the UCF28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+12
96.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 12 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+8
96.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 8 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
96.8%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
96.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Ben Redding for 5 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.7%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:273% → 3%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
96.9%
Mark-Antony Richards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+1
97.0%
Parker Navarro run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+21
97.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 21 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
RICHARDS, Mark-Antony rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UCF27 (HAILEY, Shaine). PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UCF25 to the UCF30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+14
96.4%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Jaylon Griffin for 14 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
96.3%
Andrew Brito pass complete to Amari Johnson for 21 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
96.3%
Andrew Brito run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
96.0%
Andrew Brito sacked by DeVere Levelston for 0 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+9
96.7%
Andrew Brito run for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:00
Tre Siggers run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 1:01
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 12:47
Mark-Antony Richards 58 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com