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CIN

Cincinnati 45 at South Florida 28

USF
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:07 · Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior−38.6Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:48: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK) — CIN win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:39: Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +5.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:48: Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 80 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +6.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:00: Ethan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK) — CIN win probability +8.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:14: Timmy McClain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +7.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:30USF 4th & 1 at CIN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:44USF 4th & 9 at CIN 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:07USF 4th & 14 at USF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:45CIN 4th & 2 at USF 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:11USF 4th & 4 at USF 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:45CIN 4th & 1 at USF 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00CIN 4th & 1 at USF 9, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%−1.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:01CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:08CIN 4th & 7 at midfield, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:08USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:57CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:36CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:30CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:48CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:39USF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:48USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:00CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:14USF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:22CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
19 plays · 36 yds · 6:127% → 10%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
7.6%
McClain, Timmy pass complete to Horn Jr., Jimmy for 7 yards to the SOUFLA33, PENALTY CINCINNATI offside 5 yards to the SOUFLA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
7.7%
Timmy McClain sacked by Ty Van Fossen for 0 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
7.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
8.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-1
8.2%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
8.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
8.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 2 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
8.8%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
8.7%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
9.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
9.4%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-3
9.6%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
9.8%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
9.7%
Andrew Stokes punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
9.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 18 yds Michael Young Jr. fumbled, recovered by SFla Daquan Evans , return for no gain to the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
10.1%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 36 Kelley Joiner fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:1290% → 90%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
9.7%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
9.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
50
-61
10.0%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Christian Williams return for 61 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0888% → 89%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
11.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
11.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Desmond Ridder for 3 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
12.0%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
12.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 7 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
12.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
12.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 15 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
12.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
13.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 3 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
11.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 12 yds for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:4313% → 14%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
12.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
13.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
13.2%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-10
13.5%
Timmy McClain sacked by Ahmad Gardner for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 27 Timmy McClain fumbled, recovered by SFlaSimilar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+5
13.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
13.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:2987% → 88%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
13.5%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
13.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
13.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-10
13.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Tramel Logan for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-5
14.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 20
OWN 33
+18
15.0%
Ethan Wright run for 18 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+2
14.5%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
14.2%
Ethan Wright run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
14.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Chris Scott for 6 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+11
14.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
14.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
14.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
11.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0913% → 13%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.7%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
12.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
12.7%
Timmy McClain pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4588% → 91%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
12.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-5
11.7%
Ridder, Desmond pass complete to Whyle, Josh for 32 yards to the SOUFLA0, PENALTY CINCINNATI ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUFLA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+9
12.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+19
12.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 19 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
11.9%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.0%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:059% → 10%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
9.3%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
9.3%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
9.3%
McClain, Timmy pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI face mask 15 yards to the SOUFLA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
10.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
10.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
10.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
10.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:0092% → 94%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
8.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
8.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
8.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
8.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
7.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 7 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+19
7.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 19 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
6.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
7.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+9
6.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+27
5.9%
Alex Bales 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5292% → 97%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
7.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
7.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
7.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+12
7.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
7.1%
Ethan Wright run for 6 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
7.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+8
7.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
3.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 21 yds for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:064% → 10%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
4.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
4.2%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
4.0%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-5
3.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+23
3.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 23 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
3.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
3.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 14 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
3.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
3.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
3.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 12 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3493% → 93%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
7.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 10 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
6.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-6
6.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
6.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Charles McClellandSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
7.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
14.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 80 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:4086% → 96%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
13.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
13.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 12 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
12.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
12.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 17 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
12.2%
Ethan Wright run for 5 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
12.2%
Ethan Wright run for 4 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
12.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
12.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.7%
Ethan Wright run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Ethan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:1896% → 97%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
4.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+6
4.3%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
4.2%
Ethan Wright run for 1 yd to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
4.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
3.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-1
3.4%
Ethan Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 2 Ethan Wright fumbled, recovered by SFla Dwayne BoylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
17 plays · 98 yds · 5:085% → 13%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
4.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver, broken up by Ja'von HicksSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
4.5%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr. SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+22
4.5%
Timmy McClain run for 22 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
4.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.3%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
4.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+9
4.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
4.6%
Timmy McClain sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+32
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Holden Willis for 32 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
5.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
5.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.0%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:0291% → 94%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
8.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
7.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
6.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
6.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 7
50
0
5.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by TJ RobinsonSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 7
50
0
5.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 7
50
0
5.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds, downed at the SFla 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:284% → 4%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
4.3%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 8 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+11
4.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 11 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
4.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
4.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
3.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Holden Willis for 11 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-23
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
1.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:152% → 2%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
1.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
1.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+13
1.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 13 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
1.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 3
OPP 37
-10
2.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+1
1.8%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:00
Ethan Wright run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Bales KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q4 6:14
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 3:48
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 80 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com