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SMU

SMU 25 at Memphis 28

MEM
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:15 · Seth Henigan pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior−7.0Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:57: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 48 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +11.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:47: Asa Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +20.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:41: Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 27 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +15.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:01: Rodrigues Clark pass complete to Sean Dykes for 40 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +12.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:53: Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +31.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 12SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37SMU 4th & 4 at MEM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54MEM 4th & 5 at SMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:17MEM 4th & 6 at SMU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    44.4%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:15MEM 4th & 12 at SMU 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:09SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:22MEM 4th & 6 at SMU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23MEM 4th & 1 at SMU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:17SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:13SMU 4th & 27 at MEM 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:20MEM 4th & 13 at MEM 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:20MEM 4th & 12 at SMU 28, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:34SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:41MEM 4th & 11 at SMU 27, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.8%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−10.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:16SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:01MEM 4th & 2 at SMU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−2.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:12MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 38, up 12
    Close callWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:19MEM 4th & 3 at SMU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−4.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 1:57SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:47MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:41MEM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:01MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:53SMU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1840% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
39.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+10
39.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 10 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
39.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
39.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
39.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
39.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
40.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2FUMBLE
12 plays · 59 yds · 5:4359% → 59%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.7%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
40.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+19
40.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 19 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
40.5%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+20
40.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 20 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
40.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
40.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+9
40.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 9 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+3
40.3%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-5
41.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 37 fumbled, recovered by Memph Quindell JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3743% → 45%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
42.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
43.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
43.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
43.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+1
43.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+27
42.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Khi Mathieu for 27 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
43.6%
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
43.6%
Marquavius Weaver run for 5 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
43.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the SMU 5Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
42.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 6
OPP 10
0
44.6%
Joe Doyle 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Shaine Hailey return for no gain to the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5057% → 56%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
43.2%
Tre Siggers run for 19 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
42.3%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+1
42.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
43.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
44.4%
Brendan Hall punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:4545% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
44.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 8 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
45.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
45.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 9 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
45.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 1 yd to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
46.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 3 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
46.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+23
45.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 23 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
46.9%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
46.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
46.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Isaac Slade-Matautia for 0 yards to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 12
OPP 30
0
45.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0655% → 53%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
44.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Maurice White for 0 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+12
45.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 12 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
45.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
46.6%
Brendan Hall punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:4747% → 45%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
46.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
46.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 6 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+12
46.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 12 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
47.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+16
48.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 16 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
49.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
49.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 8 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
48.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
49.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for 4 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
49.2%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
48.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
49.2%
Joe Doyle 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
45.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:2555% → 67%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
45.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+13
45.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 13 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
45.0%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
44.5%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
43.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 15 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
32.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 48 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4138% → 50%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
37.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
38.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
40.2%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
40.4%
Seth Henigan sacked by DeVere Levelston for 0 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
38.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+12
37.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+36
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 36 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
40.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for DYKES, Sean broken up by ROGERS, Jahari at the SMU0. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the SMU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FG
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0459% → 64%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
40.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 26 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+47
36.2%
Blake Mazza 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3759% → 57%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
41.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
41.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
41.3%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
42.7%
Brendan Hall punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.0%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted return for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 7:3662% → 57%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
37.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Rodney Owens for 0 yards to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 22
OPP 34
0
38.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 22
OPP 34
0
40.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 27
OPP 39
0
43.2%
Brendan Hall punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 16Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 22
OPP 34
-5
42.8%
SMU Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5343% → 48%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
42.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 13Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 13
OWN 13
0
42.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 13
OWN 13
0
40.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 13
OWN 13
0
40.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 27 yds , returns for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
46.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for MARTIN, Asa thrown to the SMU20. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on MOORE, Richard enforced 15 yards to the SMU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
48.1%
ROGERS, Gabriel rush to the right for no gain to the SMU26 (MASSEY, Bryan). PENALTY MEM Holding on MARTIN, Asa enforced 10 yards from the SMU26 to the SMU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:3345% → 62%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+8
44.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
47.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by DeVere Levelston for 0 yards to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+7
43.4%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+27
41.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 27 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1344% → 41%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.9%
Tre Siggers run for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
54.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 10 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaylon Allen for 0 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 19
OWN 37
-10
56.1%
LAVINE, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SMU40 (OWENS, Rodney;RUSSELL, JJ). PENALTY SMU Holding on THOMAS, Jaylon enforced 10 yards from the SMU37 to the SMU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 29
OWN 27
+8
56.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 21
OWN 35
-5
57.7%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 26
OWN 30
+15
57.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
59.0%
Brendan Hall punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 2:5359% → 78%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
58.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
58.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+17
57.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 17 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
60.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
50
+9
62.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 9 yds to the MEMPHIS 41 SMU Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+15
62.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for ROGERS, Gabriel thrown to the SMU5. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on DENBOW, Trevor enforced 15 yards to the SMU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
63.9%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
63.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
61.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+27
77.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 27 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1923% → 19%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.3%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by JJ Russell for 0 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Brendan Hall punt for 51 yds, downed at the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 5:1580% → 95%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
80.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+4
83.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.0%
Seth Henigan sacked for 0 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+7
81.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for 7 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+12
81.2%
Seth Henigan run for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
83.3%
Marquavius Weaver run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+12
82.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 12 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
82.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+40
95.3%
Rodrigues Clark pass complete to Sean Dykes for 40 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:185% → 11%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
94.7%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
94.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+16
94.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 16 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+9
94.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
94.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 5 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+27
88.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 27 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2492% → 93%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
92.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
91.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-5
91.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 7
OWN 38
-6
93.3%
Joe Doyle run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1910% → 41%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 15 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
89.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
89.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+7
90.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:3477% → 90%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
81.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 10 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.3%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
84.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 9 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
85.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+4
89.9%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
90.6%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
89.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4312% → 16%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.1%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Morris Joseph for 0 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+14
90.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
86.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
83.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted return for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:53
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q3 8:47
Asa Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)
+20.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com