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HOU

Houston 54 at South Florida 42

USF
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:15 · Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior−16.4Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 55 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +12.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:16: Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds , Brian Battie return for 100 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +12.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 12:50: Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +13.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:04: Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 97 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +11.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:59: Timmy McClain run for 11 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +21.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40HOU 4th & 2 at USF 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26USF 4th & 6 at USF 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:18HOU 4th & 8 at USF 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52HOU 4th & 2 at USF 2, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:10USF 4th & 1 at HOU 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−2.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−7.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:15HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−4.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:18USF 4th & 4 at midfield, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:48USF 4th & 15 at USF 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:37HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 32, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:42USF 4th & 7 at USF 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:48HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 48, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:27USF 4th & 10 at USF 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:33HOU 4th & 23 at HOU 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:11USF 4th & 20 at HOU 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:35HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:44USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:19USF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:19HOU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:30HOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:50HOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:04HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:58USF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:44HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:59USF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:27HOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4078% → 77%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
21.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 29 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
21.9%
Clayton Tune sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+10
22.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
22.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
22.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0223% → 24%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
23.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 11
-1
23.6%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 10Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
23.7%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
23.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4076% → 76%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
23.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
24.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 13 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
24.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+7
24.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
24.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
25.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
23.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 18 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3625% → 29%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.5%
Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+40
24.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 40 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
25.8%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
26.0%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
28.5%
Brian Battie run for 29 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5772% → 70%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
27.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
27.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Ta'Zhawn HenrySimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
28.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+2
29.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
30.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7SF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2330% → 28%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
30.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
30.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 2
-1
30.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 1
-1
27.8%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:1972% → 71%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
28.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
27.7%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+9
27.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 9 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
28.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.5%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.9%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the SFla 2Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
29.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jake HerslowSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
29.4%
Dalton Witherspoon 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1131% → 42%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
30.7%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
30.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Bryce Miller for 16 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
32.4%
Omarion Dollison run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
32.8%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
31.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 15 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
33.9%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+9
34.3%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
35.4%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+33
41.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 33 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4361% → 68%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
39.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 24 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
39.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 16 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
39.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
39.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+7
39.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 7 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
32.1%
Alton McCaskill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11INT
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:0635% → 41%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+24
35.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 24 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
38.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
39.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
40.0%
Timmy McClain run for 13 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chris Carter for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
41.5%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
41.1%
Timmy McClain run for 4 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-87
40.7%
Timmy McClain pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for 23 yds to the Houst 0 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Donavan Mutin) to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:3061% → 75%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
38.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 17 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
37.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 15 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
25.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 55 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · -9 yds · 1:2061% → 53%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-5
39.4%
Tune, Clayton pass complete to McCaskill, Alton for 3 yards to the HOUSTON23, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON10, NO PLAY. McCaskill, Alton rush for 10 yards to the HOUSTON20, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 5 yards to the HOUSTON5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-5
39.4%
McCaskill, Alton rush for 10 yards to the HOUSTON20, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 5 yards to the HOUSTON5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 25
OWN 5
+1
39.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 24
OWN 6
+5
40.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 19
OWN 11
0
44.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 11Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
46.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0846% → 46%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
45.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 19 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:5560% → 76%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
40.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 21 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
38.2%
Alton McCaskill run for 15 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
37.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 22 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
37.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.7%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Dell, Nathaniel, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Williams, Christian) 0 yards to the SOUFLA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.8%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2228% → 30%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
30.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
30.8%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-2
32.0%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 4
50
0
31.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 4
50
0
29.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
18.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 97 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:5720% → 33%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
19.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Brian Battie for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
19.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
18.8%
Timmy McClain run for 9 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
19.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 15 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
20.5%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
20.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 13 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
21.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
21.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
21.6%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
21.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
33.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Chris Carter for 14 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5572% → 87%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.9%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
26.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+25
25.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 25 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
24.4%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
13.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 27 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4518% → 16%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.9%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
17.5%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
16.3%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
16.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5086% → 85%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
13.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-1
13.9%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+2
14.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+26
14.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SOUFLA 27 HOUSTON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4717% → 16%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
16.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 2
50
0
17.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 2
50
-5
16.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
16.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 41 yds, downed at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 4:3788% → 90%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
12.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 9 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+5
12.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
12.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 17 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
11.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+1
11.2%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
10.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
10.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
9.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0612% → 12%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.4%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
12.3%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
11.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
11.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:4292% → 92%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
8.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
7.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
7.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Demaurez Bellamy) to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-15
7.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 48 HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Patrick Paul) to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-7
7.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Blake Green for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 23
OWN 30
0
7.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:199% → 34%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
9.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 9 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
10.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
9.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
9.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 10 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
9.9%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
12.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
11.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
12.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 15 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
34.3%
Timmy McClain run for 11 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3285% → 96%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
14.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brian Battie) to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
13.5%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+14
13.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 16 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29INT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:586% → 4%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+29
5.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 14 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
5.6%
McClain, Timmy pass complete to Miller, Bryce for 6 yards to the HOUSTON32, PENALTY SOUFLA holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
5.1%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 20
OPP 48
0
4.8%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 20
OPP 48
0
4.4%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
4.2%
Timmy McClain pass intercepted Gleson Sprewell return for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:0297% → 98%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
3.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+8
3.1%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+14
2.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
2.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:59
Timmy McClain run for 11 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q3 12:50
Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q2 2:30
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 55 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com