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TLSA

Tulsa 20 at Cincinnati 28

CIN
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:00 · Zack Long 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+18.2Garbage-time factor+5.8Score differential+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1Time remaining+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:44: Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long PAT MISSED) — TLSA win probability +5.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 0:10: Zack Long 50 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +3.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 13:17: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +5.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:04: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:10: Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 21 yds for a TD, (Davis Brin pass to Sam Crawford Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +8.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:03TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16TLSA 4th & 14 at CIN 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:20TLSA 4th & 9 at CIN 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:18CIN 4th & 17 at TLSA 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:04TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 26, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10TLSA 4th & 7 at CIN 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:08TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.3%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:00TLSA 4th & 11 at CIN 32, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:21CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:28CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:14TLSA 4th & 5 at CIN 6, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:36TLSA 4th & 1 at CIN 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−7.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:48CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:44TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:17CIN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:04CIN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:10TLSA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:496% → 7%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
93.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+7
93.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 2
OWN 13
-1
93.3%
Davis Brin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 3
OWN 12
+41
93.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 43 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:5393% → 93%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
93.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 17 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-13
93.1%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34 CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 23
OPP 49
+6
93.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+33
92.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 33 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
92.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
92.8%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:177% → 7%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted TieNeal Martin return for no gain to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:438% → 7%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
92.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-10
92.5%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Smith) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+4
92.6%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 14
OPP 36
0
92.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Cincy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 5:5593% → 94%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
92.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+3
92.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
92.4%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+13
92.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 13 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.2%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
92.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 15 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
92.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
92.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
92.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
92.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 36 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.5%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:447% → 9%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
92.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
92.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
92.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
92.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 19 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
92.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-2
92.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
92.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
91.4%
Zack Long 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4392% → 91%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
92.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 34 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
92.4%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+5
92.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-3
92.2%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 13
OPP 21
-4
91.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Elijah Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+43
91.2%
Christian Lowery 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:309% → 16%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
90.7%
Davis Brin run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
90.7%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
90.8%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
90.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
90.4%
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
89.9%
Steven Anderson run for 13 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
89.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for no gain to the Cincy 17 CINCINNATI Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Curtis Brooks) to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 1
OPP 8
+8
83.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:3787% → 87%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
87.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
87.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
87.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+4
86.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FG
13 plays · 26 yds · 1:2913% → 17%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
87.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
86.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 2
50
+4
86.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
85.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
85.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
84.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-1
84.8%
Davis Brin sacked by Ahmad Gardner for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
85.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
82.9%
Zack Long 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
84.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:2584% → 91%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
84.3%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+15
84.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 15 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+40
85.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 40 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5211% → 11%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
89.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
88.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
88.6%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
89.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
88.6%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:5791% → 95%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
90.7%
Tre Tucker run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
90.9%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
94.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FUMBLE
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:026% → 8%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
93.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
93.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+18
92.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 18 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
92.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 11 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
92.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 5 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+7
92.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 7 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-10
91.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 0
OPP 17
+2
91.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 0
OPP 15
+18
92.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 11 yds Ezra Naylor II fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ja'von Hicks , return for 18 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:3096% → 96%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
95.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
95.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+22
95.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-10
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cincy Charles McClellandSimilar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+10
95.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 10 yds Josh Whyle fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:596% → 5%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
94.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 16 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
94.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
94.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
93.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
93.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
93.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
94.3%
Davis Brin sacked by Jake Renfro for 0 yards to the Cincy 32 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+50
94.6%
Zack Long 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2296% → 97%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
96.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 14
OWN 28
0
96.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+9
96.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 9 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:015% → 14%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
95.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
95.0%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
95.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
95.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
95.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+18
95.5%
Davis Brin run for 18 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
94.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
94.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+1
94.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+21
85.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 21 yds for a TD, (Davis Brin pass to Sam Crawford Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 3 yds · 2:2592% → 92%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
92.3%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
92.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
93.1%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
94.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-5
93.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
93.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Ryan MontgomerySimilar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 12
OWN 39
-5
92.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
92.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0410% → 10%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
90.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+20
91.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 20 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
88.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
88.4%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Santana, JuanCarlos, PENALTY TULSA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TULSA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
90.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-5
91.8%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+20
91.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 20 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
88.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 13 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
86.5%
Anthony Watkins run for 18 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
86.3%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+6
87.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
88.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for no gain to the Cincy 6Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+4
89.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
96.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 3 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:2914% → 9%
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.0%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.9%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.6%
Steven Anderson run for no gain Steven Anderson fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:10
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 21 yds for a TD, (Davis Brin pass to Sam Crawford Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
-8.8
TD · Q2 2:44
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long PAT MISSED)
-5.9
TD · Q3 13:17
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com