2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:20 · Jonn Young punt for 31 yds EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Temp 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:19: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 33 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +1.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:17: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 28 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:33: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 9 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:45: Keaton Mitchell run for 57 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:43: Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
- Q1 13:08TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q1 10:20ECU 4th & 1 at TEM 49, tiedClose callPunted · 83.6% before the snapGo for it83.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:11TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.1%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q1 7:38ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q1 5:03TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q2 14:04TEM 4th & 10 at ECU 24, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call18.0%68% to makePunt15.9%−2.1average punt
- Q2 11:46TEM 4th & 11 at ECU 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snapGo for it17.8%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call18.3%64% to makePunt16.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 6:22TEM 4th & 17 at TEM 18, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q2 6:22ECU 4th & 15 at TEM 31, up 13Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 87.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.4%−1.017% to convertField goal87.5%54% to makePunt86.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:08TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.271% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 11:34TEM 4th & 8 at ECU 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%34% to convertField goal1.1%−<0.147% to makePunt0.9%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:10ECU 4th & 10 at TEM 43, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.130% to convertField goal99.1%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 8:13TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 8, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 2:18TEM 4th & 10 at ECU 47, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 9:49TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 41, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:55TEM 4th & 10 at ECU 29, down 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%58% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:49ECU 4th & 6 at TEM 6, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 3:19ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:17ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:33ECU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:45ECU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:43ECU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:27ECU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5212% → 13%
ECUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4888% → 87%
TEMDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0913% → 14%
ECUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3386% → 85%
TEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:3514% → 15%
Q1 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-2
85.7%
QB Keeper MATHIS, D'Wan rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TEM16 (LEWIS, Jeremy;HICKMAN, Immanuel). PENALTY TEM Holding on QUARSHIE, Wisdom enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the TEM14 to the TEM7 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 13
OWN 10
+8
85.2%
Adam Barry punt for 44 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 8 yds to the Temp 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD4 plays · 46 yds · 1:4485% → 87%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 33 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7MISSED FG12 plays · 51 yds · 4:1514% → 15%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.9%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Randle Jones for 10 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 1 yd to the Temp 36Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 10
50
+10
85.5%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Randle Jones for 10 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
85.3%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Randle Jones for 8 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
83.8%
D'Wan Mathis pass complete to Randle Jones for no gain to the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4885% → 85%
TEMDrive 9MISSED FG4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3017% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD7 plays · 74 yds · 3:2985% → 90%
TEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5511% → 11%
Q2 6:22
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
88.7%
Adam Barry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD12 plays · 60 yds · 4:4989% → 96%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
89.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 40Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-5
89.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Noah Henderson) to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+4
89.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+16
88.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 16 yds to the Temp 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
89.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the Temp 9Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
96.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 9 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:255% → 5%
ECUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD1 play · 57 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16DOWNS11 plays · 41 yds · 3:113% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
96.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jordan Smith for 8 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q3 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+24
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 24 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:571% → 1%
ECUDrive 19TD7 plays · 48 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
99.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 12 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 2:210% → 0%
ECUDrive 21TD11 plays · 91 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+15
99.8%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for OMOTOSHO, Audie thrown to the TEM30. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Freddie enforced 15 yards to the TEM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
99.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, Offsides Pass Interference on RUIZ, Cameron ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 4 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Kadas Reams for no gain to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Adam Barry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23INT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25FG9 plays · 24 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
99.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · -2 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:33
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 9 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 8:17
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 28 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q3 14:45
Keaton Mitchell run for 57 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
+2.6