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SMU

SMU 37 at Houston 44

HOU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:45: Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds , Bryan Massey return for 100 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +15.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:46: Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +17.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:36: Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +23.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:30: Blake Mazza 45 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +38.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Brendan Hall kickoff for 65 yds , Marcus Jones return for 100 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +48.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:59SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:52SMU 4th & 10 at HOU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:20HOU 4th & 10 at SMU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:41HOU 4th & 6 at SMU 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.1%−6.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:28SMU 4th & 17 at SMU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:37HOU 4th & 1 at SMU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.0%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:45SMU 4th & 1 at HOU 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−2.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−9.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.6%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:39HOU 4th & 9 at SMU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:54SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:04HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−3.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:40SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:30SMU 4th & 2 at HOU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−6.4
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−20.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:20HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:26HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00SMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:28SMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:45SMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:45SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:22HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:46SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:36HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:17HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:0947% → 50%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
47.4%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
47.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
47.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
47.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+55
47.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 55 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
48.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
48.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
49.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0150% → 50%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
49.7%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Donavan Mutin for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
50.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+15
50.5%
Brendan Hall punt for 45 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 15 yds to the Houst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:1651% → 54%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
51.0%
Alton McCaskill run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+48
53.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 48 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3147% → 45%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
52.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 26 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
53.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
54.1%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+4
54.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
55.4%
Brendan Hall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:1057% → 62%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
56.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+5
57.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+8
57.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
58.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 27 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
59.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
60.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
60.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+1
59.9%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+50
62.4%
Dalton Witherspoon 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0238% → 45%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.8%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
61.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
62.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
62.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+8
62.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
54.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 43 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:0456% → 65%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
56.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 16 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+52
58.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 52 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
58.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by Richard Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
59.2%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
65.1%
Dalton Witherspoon 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0237% → 32%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
63.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Derek Parish) to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
63.1%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-5
67.5%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Atlias Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
68.1%
Brendan Hall punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3370% → 69%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
70.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
70.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+9
69.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-2
69.2%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line Mulbah Car fumbled, forced by Elijah Chatman, recovered by Houst Clayton Tune , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
50
+50
57.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 50 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1361% → 61%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.8%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
61.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
60.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds KeSean Carter fumbled, forced by Chace Cromartie, recovered by SMU Isaac Slade-MatautiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:4543% → 52%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
57.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+2
58.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+19
59.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 19 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
56.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
56.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 7 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
58.2%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
47.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
15 plays · 62 yds · 2:2553% → 61%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
55.1%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
56.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+8
55.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
56.4%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete, PENALTY SMU substitution infraction 5 yards to the SMU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
56.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+12
56.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 12 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
57.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 11 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
57.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
58.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+30
61.4%
Dalton Witherspoon 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:0846% → 63%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
45.5%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+13
45.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 13 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
47.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
48.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 15 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
50.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
50.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+7
48.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
50.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jaylen ErwinSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
50.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
63.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2441% → 64%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
58.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
54.9%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
54.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
55.6%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
55.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 37 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.6%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.2%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:4443% → 72%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
42.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
39.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.4%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+37
40.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 37 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
46.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jaylen Erwin for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
48.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+9
46.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
48.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
48.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
47.7%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trevor Denbow) to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
48.9%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
48.9%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:5034% → 35%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
66.4%
Tre Siggers run for 14 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
64.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-11
66.5%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 40 SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Chevin Calloway) to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+6
67.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+21
69.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 21 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
62.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
65.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2174% → 72%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
73.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
75.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
76.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-1
76.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
75.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
72.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayleen Record at the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2131% → 28%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
68.8%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+11
70.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 11 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
68.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
70.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (Logan Hall) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
68.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 4 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
67.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-6
68.3%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jamykal Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+17
72.1%
Brendan Hall punt for 44 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 17 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3681% → 86%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
81.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
86.3%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-4
85.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by DeVere Levelston for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
86.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jayleen Record at the SMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:2921% → 55%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
79.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
78.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
80.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+15
81.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
79.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
74.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Alex Hogan) to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
71.9%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
71.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 1 yd to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+5
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
44.6%
Blake Mazza 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
96.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Brendan Hall kickoff for 65 yds , Marcus Jones return for 100 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+48.5
FG · Q4 0:30
Blake Mazza 45 yd FG GOOD
-38.2
TD · Q4 13:36
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 4 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com