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USF

South Florida 14 at East Carolina 29

ECU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2021 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:30 · Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+11.2Home team on offense−7.0Garbage-time factor−3.5Score differential−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:43: Jaren Mangham run for 24 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +8.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +8.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 17 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +15.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:38: Katravis Marsh pass intercepted for a TD Malik Fleming return for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +15.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:26: Keaton Mitchell run for 25 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +13.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:45USF 4th & 1 at ECU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42USF 4th & 1 at ECU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:51ECU 4th & 2 at USF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59ECU 4th & 3 at USF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:26USF 4th & 10 at USF 22, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:28ECU 4th & 5 at USF 42, up 6
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:43USF 4th & 1 at ECU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−1.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:31ECU 4th & 6 at USF 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:30ECU 4th & 1 at USF 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−3.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12USF 4th & 7 at ECU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:55ECU 4th & 1 at USF 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−3.9
    68% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−15.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:14ECU 4th & 10 at USF 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00USF 4th & 5 at ECU 46, down 5
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−3.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:23ECU 4th & 7 at USF 19, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:57ECU 4th & 6 at USF 40, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:03USF 4th & 1 at ECU 17, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:55ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:43USF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12USF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:30ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38ECU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:26ECU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1DOWNS
19 plays · 71 yds · 5:1426% → 27%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
73.8%
Marsh, Katravis pass incomplete to Weaver, Xavier, PENALTY EASTCRLINA offside (Hickman, Immanuel) 5 yards to the SOUFLA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
73.7%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
73.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 9 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
73.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
73.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
73.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
73.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
73.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+8
73.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
72.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 14 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
72.7%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
72.5%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+9
72.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 9 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
72.6%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the ECaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:4373% → 72%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
72.8%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Johnson, C.J., PENALTY SOUFLA roughing passer (Pinkney, Kelvin) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
72.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
72.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
72.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
72.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 8 yds Shane Calhoun fumbled, forced by Antonio Grier, recovered by SFla Dwayne BoylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0828% → 29%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.6%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
71.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 11 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
71.2%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
71.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds Xavier Weaver fumbled, forced by Teagan Wilk, recovered by ECaro Aaron RamseurSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 6:3872% → 75%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 16 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
72.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
72.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+4
71.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
72.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
72.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
72.2%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
71.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
72.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-3
72.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Kevin Kegler for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+19
71.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 19 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
75.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1827% → 26%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.3%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
73.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
73.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:26
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
74.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5875% → 75%
Q2 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
75.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
75.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+13
74.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Savage for 13 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-2
75.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+7
74.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
74.8%
Jonn Young punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:4127% → 35%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
73.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+47
72.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 47 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
70.4%
Katravis Marsh run for 7 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
70.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
70.6%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
65.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 24 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:1837% → 46%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
63.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 12 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
54.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FUMBLE
19 plays · 70 yds · 7:3056% → 53%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
57.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
50
+3
57.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
56.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 10 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-2
57.3%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+2
55.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+8
53.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 8 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
56.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
54.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+15
57.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 15 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
57.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 13 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
56.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 6Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
55.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
53.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-4
53.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 5 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFla Demaurez BellamySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
50.4%
Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:1751% → 67%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
51.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 9 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+7
52.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Rahjai HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
51.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
50.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 8 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
48.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
51.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
51.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SavageSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
49.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 12 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
51.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
66.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 17 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0540% → 41%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
59.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 22 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Immanuel Hickman) to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+10
57.2%
Kelley Joiner run for 10 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
56.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
56.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
58.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds, downed at the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:5460% → 59%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
59.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+42
59.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 42 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
63.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
64.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
64.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
65.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+3
65.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
63.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
61.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
64.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
64.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SavageSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
62.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
59.3%
Owen Daffer 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3344% → 28%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
56.4%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-31
71.7%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted for a TD Malik Fleming return for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:3029% → 30%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
70.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
67.7%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
67.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-1
66.1%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
67.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
69.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3474% → 94%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
73.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+21
73.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 21 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
78.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
80.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+14
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 14 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
81.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+11
80.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 25 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:308% → 7%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
92.1%
Katravis Marsh run for 4 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+22
92.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 22 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
91.0%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+11
92.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
90.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 48 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bryce Miller) to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 16
OWN 38
-10
92.1%
Mangham, Jaren rush for 6 yards to the SOUFLA44, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Jennings, Donovan) 10 yards to the SOUFLA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 26
OWN 28
-33
92.6%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Shawn Dourseau return for 33 yds to the SFla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1495% → 97%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
95.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
95.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
96.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
95.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
96.9%
Owen Daffer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:344% → 4%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-6
96.1%
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Teagan Wilk return for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4498% → 98%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
97.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+8
97.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
97.8%
Jonn Young punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:453% → 3%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
97.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 11 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+33
97.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 33 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
97.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 15 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.7%
Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
96.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+9
97.1%
Katravis Marsh run for 9 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
96.9%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the ECaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+19
98.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 19 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
98.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
99.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:30
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 17 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q3 2:38
Katravis Marsh pass intercepted for a TD Malik Fleming return for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+15.3
TD · Q4 10:26
Keaton Mitchell run for 25 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com