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NAVY

Navy 20 at Tulsa 17

TLSA
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2021 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.8TLSA 75.0%Zack Long 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q2 6:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:37 · Zack Long 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+18.3Home team on offense+2.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:03: Bijan Nichols 29 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +8.8 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:03: James Harris II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:25: Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +27.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:21: Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +31.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: NAVY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — NAVY win probability +8.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:42NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:53NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:01TLSA 4th & 15 at NAVY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:55NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:49TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:30NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:37TLSA 4th & 8 at NAVY 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:53NAVY 4th & 2 at TLSA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:01TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:10TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:14NAVY 4th & 2 at TLSA 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−7.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 14:47TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:03NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:25NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:21TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1321% → 22%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
78.7%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
78.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
78.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 36 yds , Tyree Carlisle returns for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1678% → 78%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
78.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-5
78.2%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-3
78.0%
Davis Brin sacked by Clay Cromwell for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 29 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
77.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2222% → 22%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
78.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
77.8%
Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
77.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-5
77.7%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
77.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5978% → 77%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
77.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+14
77.7%
Deneric Prince run for 14 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
77.7%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+3
77.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+15
77.2%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete, PENALTY NAVY pass interference 15 yards to the NAVY22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ezra Naylor IISimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
77.3%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-4
77.1%
Davis Brin sacked by Johnny Hodges for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 24 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by NavySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1724% → 24%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
76.3%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
76.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
76.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+2
76.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2976% → 75%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
76.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
75.8%
Davis Brin run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
75.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 16 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
76.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 13 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.5%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
76.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
75.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
74.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
74.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:5026% → 26%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
74.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
74.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.0%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
73.9%
Chance Warren run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
73.3%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
73.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0174% → 72%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
74.2%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-2
74.0%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+3
72.9%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
72.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0528% → 28%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
72.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
72.0%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
70.4%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
71.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:4873% → 75%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+78
72.9%
Anthony Watkins run for 78 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.2%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the Navy 7Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
75.0%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
75.0%
Zack Long 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3727% → 27%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
73.2%
Chance Warren run for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
72.1%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.1%
Jayden Umbarger run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
71.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
71.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
70.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
70.9%
Mike Mauai run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+1
73.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5174% → 73%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
74.2%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
73.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
73.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 34
-1
74.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
73.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 0:5823% → 37%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
77.0%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+7
77.2%
Chance Warren run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+64
76.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 64 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
72.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
72.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+29
63.3%
Bijan Nichols 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
70.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3721% → 40%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
78.8%
Chance Warren run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
76.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
75.0%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+10
76.1%
Chance Warren run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
76.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
74.7%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
74.6%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+9
75.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.5%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
James Harris II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17INT
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:2168% → 71%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
67.8%
Deneric Prince run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+10
69.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
70.0%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+10
66.9%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+11
67.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 11 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+10
69.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 10 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
70.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
70.3%
Brin, Davis pass incomplete to Crawford Jr., Sam, PENALTY NAVY pass interference 5 yards to the NAVY31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
71.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
71.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
71.1%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
70.7%
Davis Brin pass intercepted, touchback. Rayuan Lane return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 8:0338% → 75%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.2%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
62.2%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (15 Yards) to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
59.2%
Chance Warren run for no gain to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
60.4%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
56.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
56.3%
Tyger Goslin run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+17
56.4%
Chance Warren run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
53.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
53.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
54.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
52.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
51.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+5
53.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1535% → 32%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
35.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
34.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
35.0%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-8
33.3%
Davis Brin sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+15
29.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Cannon Montgomery for 15 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
31.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:4680% → 89%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
20.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
19.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
18.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
16.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
13.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
13.5%
James Harris II run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
10.8%
Bijan Nichols 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:3911% → 31%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
10.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Rayuan LaneSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
10.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+42
10.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 42 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.2%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
8.7%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
30.9%
NAVY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4583% → 93%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
17.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
10.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-4
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 15
50
-3
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:21
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+31.1
TD · Q4 11:25
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-27.9
TD · Q3 9:03
James Harris II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com