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ECU

East Carolina 24 at Houston 31

HOU
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:09 · Holton Ahlers pass incomplete for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 103Pregame prior+12.2Home team on offense+13.0Score differential+5.1Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:46: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 40 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +3.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:12: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:59: Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +12.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:43: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 13 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +34.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Alton McCaskill run for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +29.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 10ECU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:39ECU 4th & 9 at HOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:56HOU 4th & 4 at ECU 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:33ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:59HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 25, up 7
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:16ECU 4th & 5 at HOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:06HOU 4th & 21 at HOU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:35ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50HOU 4th & 20 at HOU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:09ECU 4th & 4 at HOU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:42HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 24, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:58ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:34HOU 4th & 8 at ECU 42, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:27ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54HOU 4th & 22 at HOU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−2.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:01ECU 4th & 7 at HOU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:39HOU 4th & 2 at ECU 29, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:21HOU 4th & 7 at ECU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−8.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:11ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:51HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−4.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:31ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−8.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:46ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:12HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:59ECU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:43ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:2020% → 21%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derek Parish) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
79.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
79.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Damarion Williams) to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
79.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
79.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jayce Rogers) to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
79.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
79.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+12
78.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
78.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
78.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
78.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
78.6%
Owen Daffer 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:2479% → 78%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
78.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
78.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 8 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
78.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
78.5%
Alton McCaskill run for 12 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
78.4%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
78.2%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+20
77.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
77.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
77.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:0523% → 26%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
77.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+4
77.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+39
77.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
73.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 40 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0023% → 24%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
76.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
76.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 32 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by David Anenih, recovered by Houst David Anenih , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:3278% → 80%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
77.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-5
77.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Patrick Paul) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+22
76.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Seth Green for 22 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for no gain to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
77.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+15
77.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Warren Saba) to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:0521% → 20%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (D'Anthony Jones) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+4
78.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.7%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
78.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-8
78.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Atlias Bell for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
79.7%
Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Houst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0379% → 78%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
79.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for no gain to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
79.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
78.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the Houst 16Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+9
78.7%
Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4321% → 22%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
78.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Latrell Bankston) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+26
77.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 26 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
77.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+10
78.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-3
77.4%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
78.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:5480% → 79%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
80.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Aaron Ramseur for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+24
79.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 24 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
81.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
81.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-12
80.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Jeremy Lewis and Elijah Morris for a loss of 12 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
78.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2521% → 21%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
79.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
79.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 16 yds to the ECaro 40 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bruce Bivens) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
78.1%
Chad Stephens run for 4 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
79.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Avery Jones) to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+7
79.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds Tyler Snead fumbled, forced by Jayce Rogers, recovered by Houst Deontay Anderson , return for 23 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1382% → 87%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
81.6%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
86.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:1615% → 14%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
85.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
85.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
85.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Noah Henderson) to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+4
85.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
86.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
86.5%
Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Marcus Jones returns for no gain to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2587% → 89%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
87.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 16 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
87.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 9 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
88.7%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
88.7%
Clayton Tune sacked by Jireh Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+2
88.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:0588% → 87%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.7%
Clayton Tune sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
87.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:1913% → 12%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
86.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 1
50
+3
86.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
86.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 8 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
86.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
85.9%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
87.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2790% → 90%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
90.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
90.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+4
90.3%
Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds, downed at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1211% → 10%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
88.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
89.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
89.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
89.6%
Jonn Young punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:0792% → 92%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 16 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
91.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+7
92.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-4
92.2%
Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
91.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:009% → 9%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
90.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
90.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+1
89.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
89.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Avery Jones) to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
91.3%
Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0694% → 93%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-9
93.9%
Clayton Tune sacked by Gerard Stringer for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 19
OWN 15
0
93.9%
Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 15
-3
93.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 12Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 22
OWN 12
0
93.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:399% → 8%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
91.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 13 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.1%
Tyler Snead run for 2 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
91.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
91.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Mannie Nunnery for 0 yards to the Houst 38 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Mannie Nunnery, recovered by ECaro Fernando Frye , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-2
91.7%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Elijah Gooden and D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1695% → 96%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
94.9%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
95.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+14
95.4%
Mulbah Car run for 14 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
95.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 12
OPP 39
0
95.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+10
95.8%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
95.7%
Dalton Witherspoon 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:167% → 20%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
92.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 36 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
92.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 7 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
91.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
92.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
92.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (TEAM) to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
92.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 20 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
89.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds Christian Trahan fumbled, forced by Teagan Wilk, recovered by ECaro Suirad WareSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:4720% → 54%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
80.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the Houst 13 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Donavan Mutin, recovered by ECaro Fernando FryeSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
45.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 13 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 3:1261% → 63%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
60.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+13
57.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
61.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 12 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
65.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
65.5%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
66.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
68.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
66.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
62.7%
Dalton Witherspoon 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:0749% → 50%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
51.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
52.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
47.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
45.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
47.5%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+11
50.4%
Jonn Young punt for 40 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 11 yds to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1658% → 55%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
57.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
60.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
56.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
55.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1750% → 47%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
50.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+1
51.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
53.3%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
57.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 32TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.6%
Alton McCaskill run for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 33Uncategorized
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-2
80.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for a loss of 2 yards Ryan Jones fumbled, forced by Donavan Mutin, recovered by Houst JoVanni StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:43
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 13 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
-34.7
TD · OT 0:00
Alton McCaskill run for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+29.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com