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CIN

Cincinnati 27 at Navy 20

NAVY
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:01 · Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior−17.1Home team on offense−34.7Score differential−16.6Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:07: Christian Lowery 32 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +2.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:39: Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +5.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:13: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK) — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +16.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 11CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:35CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:03CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15NAVY 4th & 11 at CIN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:13NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 11, up 3
    Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:07CIN 4th & 10 at NAVY 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:01NAVY 4th & 19 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:19NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:06NAVY 4th & 4 at CIN 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:35NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:00CIN 4th & 8 at NAVY 33, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:23NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:01CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 16, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:34NAVY 4th & 3 at CIN 10, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:29CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:00NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:04NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:51NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:39CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:13CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:50NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
3.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
3.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
3.2%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
3.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:493% → 4%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
3.4%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+5
3.6%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+5
3.6%
Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+16
3.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2496% → 96%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
50
0
3.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 10
50
-5
3.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
3.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
3.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 15
OWN 45
+12
4.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Chance Warren returns for 12 yds to the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:584% → 8%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
4.0%
Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+9
4.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
4.2%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+11
4.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
4.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
4.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 3
50
+14
5.0%
Chance Warren run for 14 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
5.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
5.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+2
5.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
6.0%
Jayden Umbarger run for 19 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
6.3%
James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:3893% → 94%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
7.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
7.1%
Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
6.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:197% → 8%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
6.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 9
50
-1
7.2%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+36
7.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 21 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
7.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
8.3%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
8.2%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
8.4%
Bijan Nichols 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7INT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:4692% → 91%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
8.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Tunstall) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-1
8.5%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+17
8.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
8.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
8.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+16
8.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
8.7%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Glenn return for 1 yd to the Navy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:039% → 10%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
9.4%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+4
9.7%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+5
10.0%
Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
10.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 64 yds, downed at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
16 plays · 61 yds · 5:4989% → 87%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.0%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
11.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
11.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 13 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
11.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
11.2%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+6
11.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
11.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
12.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
12.6%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
12.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+11
12.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
13.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-7
13.7%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
14.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard TaylorSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
12.6%
Christian Lowery 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10MISSED FG
21 plays · 41 yds · 3:5415% → 17%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.0%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
15.7%
Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
16.5%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyger Goslin for 4 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
17.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
17.5%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
17.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
18.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
19.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
18.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-1
19.5%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
18.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
19.7%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 13
OPP 28
-6
19.3%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 19
OPP 34
0
17.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
16.5%
Bijan Nichols 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deshawn Pace Deshawn Pace return for 20 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
11.0%
Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 29 yds · 5:4914% → 18%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
14.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
15.8%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
15.6%
James Harris II run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
14.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
17.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
17.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
17.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
19.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
19.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
20.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-2
18.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:2785% → 90%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
14.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+10
15.9%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
14.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 4 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
14.8%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
9.6%
Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5510% → 10%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.1%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
10.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
9.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+19
9.8%
Riley Riethman punt for 33 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 19 yds to the Navy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1791% → 97%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
9.3%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
8.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
8.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
9.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Renfro) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+9
10.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
8.6%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+5
8.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+6
9.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
9.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+12
9.3%
Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:416% → 5%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
6.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
6.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
5.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+2
5.4%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+3
5.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2296% → 96%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
3.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+6
3.8%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
3.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+6
4.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
4.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:224% → 5%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
4.4%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+26
4.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 26 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
5.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
4.5%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+7
4.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
4.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
4.7%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+4
4.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
5.4%
Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 3
OWN 35
-15
4.5%
NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryce Texeira) to the Navy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5097% → 96%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
50
+8
3.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-1
3.3%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-17
3.4%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan O'Quinn) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+4
3.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 44 NAVY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chance Warren) to the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
20 plays · 90 yds · 4:294% → 18%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
3.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
3.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
3.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daniel Jones for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
2.8%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for no gain to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+5
2.8%
Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+12
2.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
2.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
2.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-1
2.9%
Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+7
2.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
2.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 8 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
2.6%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+17
1.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 17 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
1.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
1.3%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
1.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ahmad Gardner) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1510% → 9%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
9.6%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
9.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-1
8.5%
Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
4.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 1:13
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Lowery KICK)
-5.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com