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MEM

Memphis 7 at UCF 24

UCF
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2021 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:12 · Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 9 yds to the UCF 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+16.7Score differential+5.5Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Pregame prior+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:02: Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +6.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD (Joe Doyle KICK) — MEM win probability +7.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 11:07: Noah Grant kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UCF win probability +2.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:35: Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 43 — UCF win probability +6.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:59: Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:15MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:51MEM 4th & 22 at UCF 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:16UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:45UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:29UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:21MEM 4th & 14 at MEM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:22UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:51MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:15MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:40UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:41MEM 4th & 3 at UCF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−2.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:12MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09UCF 4th & 6 at MEM 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−6.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:00MEM 4th & 3 at UCF 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:39UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:23MEM 4th & 8 at UCF 12, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:12UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:07MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:59UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:3554% → 57%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
54.3%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
54.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+8
54.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
54.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
54.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 3 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
55.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
55.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 16 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
55.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
57.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2PUNT
20 plays · 45 yds · 7:0944% → 40%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
56.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
56.5%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
56.8%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+4
57.1%
Peter Parrish run for 4 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
56.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
57.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 9 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.9%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
57.2%
Peter Parrish run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 8
50
+9
57.4%
Peter Parrish run for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
57.1%
Parrish, Peter pass incomplete to Dykes, Sean, PENALTY UCF holding (Bethune, Tatum) 10 yards to the UCF31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
56.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-5
56.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-3
57.5%
Peter Parrish sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+19
58.5%
Peter Parrish run for 19 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
57.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Isaac Ellis) to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-6
57.7%
Peter Parrish run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 30 Peter Parrish fumbled, recovered by Memph Peter ParrishSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 21
OPP 30
+8
58.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 13
OPP 22
-9
58.9%
Peter Parrish sacked by Davonte Brown and Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 22
OPP 31
0
60.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 31 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2560% → 60%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
60.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
60.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
60.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 27 Calvin Austin III fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 1:0762% → 69%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
61.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
62.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
68.8%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:4534% → 41%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
66.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Sean Dykes for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
66.1%
Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+2
66.3%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 2 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
67.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+16
67.0%
Peter Parrish run for 16 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
66.3%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
66.4%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste) to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1663% → 63%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
64.9%
Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-3
64.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+51
63.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the MEMPHIS 21 MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Greg Rubin) to the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4636% → 34%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
63.7%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
63.9%
Peter Parrish run for 1 yd to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-5
65.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+4
65.7%
Peter Parrish run for 4 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
66.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Titus Mokiao-Atimalala at the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2067% → 65%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.2%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
66.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-3
66.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Thomas Pickens for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
65.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5935% → 32%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
65.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 5 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-1
65.6%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+8
66.7%
Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.9%
Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
66.5%
Peter Parrish sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
67.7%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Marcayll JonesSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
68.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5368% → 67%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
67.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+2
66.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
67.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2632% → 32%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
68.0%
Gabriel Rogers run for 3 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
67.7%
Peter Parrish pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+6
68.7%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
68.0%
Peter Parrish run for no gain to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:3771% → 70%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
70.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
69.9%
Mikey Keene run for 7 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
70.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 8 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
71.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-5
69.6%
UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+42
70.4%
Daniel Obarski 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4032% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.7%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
67.1%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
68.1%
Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
66.8%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
67.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
67.3%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
68.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2869% → 69%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
69.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 24
-2
69.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+6
68.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
70.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-2
71.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
69.7%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
68.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, downed at the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5131% → 31%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
68.6%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 12 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
67.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
67.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
66.8%
Gabriel Rogers run for 1 yd to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
67.0%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+6
68.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
69.0%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:3676% → 89%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
77.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
77.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+14
78.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
78.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+31
88.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3815% → 12%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
85.5%
Peter Parrish sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
86.1%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin IIISimilar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+2
87.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+9
87.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 9 yds to the UCF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5589% → 95%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
89.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+17
91.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 17 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
91.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+10
92.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
92.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 20 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the Memph 11Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
93.0%
Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Charlie BrowderSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
94.6%
Daniel Obarski 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:236% → 6%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-24
94.0%
Peter Parrish pass intercepted Davonte Brown return for 14 yds to the Memph 44 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2496% → 96%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
95.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
95.7%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the Memph 39Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 4
OPP 39
-5
95.7%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Brandon Johnson) to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Tyrez Lindsey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22INT
13 plays · 73 yds · 4:535% → 4%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
94.9%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 11 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
94.7%
Peter Parrish run for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+11
95.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 11 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
95.0%
Peter Parrish run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
95.4%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
94.8%
Peter Parrish sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+5
95.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+8
95.5%
Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+5
95.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
95.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 6 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+11
95.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (11 Yards) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-9
95.3%
Peter Parrish sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-25
95.8%
Peter Parrish pass intercepted Divaad Wilson return for 25 yds to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1697% → 97%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+4
97.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:573% → 3%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.4%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
97.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.5%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Marco Domio) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-49
97.1%
Peter Parrish pass intercepted Dyllon Lester return for 34 yds to the UCF 0 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1698% → 98%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
97.7%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
98.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+2
98.3%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Peter Parrish pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
99.3%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Trillion Coles) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.2%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+24
99.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 24 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
99.1%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Marcayll JonesSimilar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
99.2%
Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+7
99.3%
Peter Parrish run for 7 yds to the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
98.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+10
98.8%
Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
98.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:59
Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD (Daniel Obarski KICK)
+10
TD · Q2 11:07
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD (Joe Doyle KICK)
-7.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:35
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 43
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com