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TLSA

Tulsa 32 at South Florida 31

USF
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:33 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Home team on offense+10.0Pregame prior−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential−0.1Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:54: Antonio Grier 69 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick) — USF win probability +13.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:57: Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:30: Timmy McClain run for 8 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +14.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:57: Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (D. Prince Run For Two-point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +21.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:47: Shamari Brooks 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TLSA win probability +52.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:51USF 4th & 9 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:54TLSA 4th & 4 at USF 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00USF 4th & 11 at TLSA 27, tied
    Close callWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:11USF 4th & 10 at USF 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:10TLSA 4th & 5 at USF 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:47TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 28, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:59USF 4th & 10 at USF 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:03TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:13TLSA 4th & 6 at USF 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:33USF 4th & 7 at USF 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:23USF 4th & 5 at USF 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:33TLSA 4th & 16 at midfield, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:20USF 4th & 1 at USF 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.4%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:20TLSA 4th & 3 at USF 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−1.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−13.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:03USF 4th & 5 at USF 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%−7.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 12:55USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:13TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:54USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:57TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:30USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:57TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:47TLSA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.3 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.5%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:0938% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.8%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+22
37.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 22 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
37.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+10
37.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 10 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
37.8%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-2
37.8%
Kelley Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
37.8%
Timmy McClain run for no gain to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
39.8%
Spencer Shrader 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 5:5760% → 59%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
39.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
39.6%
Davis Brin run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
39.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 19 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
39.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 8 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+2
39.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
39.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-2
39.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+8
39.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
39.1%
Davis Brin run for 7 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
39.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the SFla 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
39.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
40.8%
QB Keeper BRIN, Davis rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the USF0, TOUCHDOWN TUL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY TUL Holding on WHEELER, Gerard enforced 10 yards from the USF7 to the USF17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+10
41.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 10 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
41.2%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
40.7%
Zack Long 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4641% → 43%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
41.2%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
41.4%
Timmy McClain run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 26Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
40.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
41.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
50
0
42.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
50
+24
42.2%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 24 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
42.7%
Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
42.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
42.3%
Timmy McClain sacked by Justin Wright for 0 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+7
43.0%
Kenny Scribner pass complete to Spencer Shrader for 7 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
42.2%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:5645% → 52%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
45.3%
Timmy McClain sacked by Tyarise Stevenson and Justin Wright for 0 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 19
OPP 21
+17
44.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
44.7%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.0%
Jaren Mangham 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6INT
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1550% → 51%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
49.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 16 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
48.8%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
49.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
47.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 19 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
47.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
49.5%
Davis Brin pass intercepted return for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2952% → 51%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
51.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
51.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
51.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+9
50.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 9 yds to the SFla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:5851% → 59%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
49.5%
Deneric Prince run for 13 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
48.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 19 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
48.3%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.8%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9INT TD
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0547% → 36%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
52.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
52.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 10 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.9%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
51.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+11
52.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 11 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
50.5%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
50.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-69
63.8%
Antonio Grier 69 Yd Interception Return (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:4436% → 37%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
64.4%
Deneric Prince run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+8
62.9%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-10
61.4%
BRIN, Davis pass to the right complete for 1 yard to JOHNSON, Josh caught at the USF47 and advanced to the USF41 (MIMS, Andrew). PENALTY TUL Holding on CRAWFORD JR., Sam enforced 10 yards from the USF42 to the TUL48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+8
63.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
62.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
61.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
60.6%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
60.6%
Davis Brin run for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
60.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.5%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
63.4%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
64.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
62.9%
Zack Long 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
47.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:5754% → 54%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
54.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1347% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
53.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
55.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
56.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+10
58.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 62 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 10 yds to the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:4856% → 59%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
55.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 18 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
57.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
58.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
57.6%
MCCLAIN, Timmy pass to the left complete for 5 yards to ATKINS, Sean caught at the USF47 and advanced to the USF49 (OLIVER, Jaise). PENALTY TUL Offsides enforced 5 yards from the USF44 to the USF49 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.5%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
58.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
56.1%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
59.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5641% → 37%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
59.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
59.3%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
60.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 9
OWN 13
+15
62.9%
WILSON, Lachlan punt 41 yards to the USF46, WEAVER, Xavier return 54 yards to the TUL0, TOUCHDOWN USF, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY USF Roughing the Kicker on CURRY, Jayden enforced 15 yards from the TUL13 to the TUL28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
60.1%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
60.1%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:3361% → 81%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
60.9%
Timmy McClain run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
60.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 10 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
61.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 8 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
63.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
63.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
63.0%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+9
63.0%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 9 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
66.1%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+36
66.1%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 36 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
81.0%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:1721% → 20%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
77.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 9 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
75.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.4%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
78.3%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
78.8%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
80.5%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4086% → 88%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
86.4%
Timmy McClain run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
86.1%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
87.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 52 yds, downed at the Tulsa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:0316% → 36%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
84.0%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+13
84.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.2%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
83.6%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+18
84.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 18 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
81.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+29
80.6%
Deneric Prince run for 29 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
78.3%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
77.6%
BRIN, Davis pass to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Josh thrown to the USF18. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on HILL, Matthew enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the USF17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
85.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
63.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (D. Prince Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3462% → 61%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
62.0%
Timmy McClain run for 4 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
61.7%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
60.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5030% → 22%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
69.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+18
67.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 18 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.2%
Davis Brin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
67.7%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 14
OPP 48
-10
72.5%
BRIN, Davis pass to the left complete for 15 yards to SANTANA, JuanCarlos caught at the USF34 and advanced to the USF33, out of bounds. PENALTY TUL Holding on SMITH, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the USF48 to the TUL42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 24
OWN 42
-15
73.9%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (JuanCarlos Santana) to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 39
OWN 27
+23
75.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 23 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 16
50
0
78.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1373% → 69%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
73.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 13 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
73.9%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
73.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 9 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
70.6%
run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
68.9%
run for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23TD
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:3326% → 82%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
74.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+6
71.2%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
70.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 6 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
70.6%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-1
73.6%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+6
76.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
70.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
70.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.1%
Shamari Brooks 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3931% → 13%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
31.4%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
30.3%
Timmy McClain sacked by Justin Wright for 0 yards to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+8
28.6%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 8 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
12.6%
Timmy McClain pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
4.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:47
Shamari Brooks 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-52.5
TD · Q4 10:57
Davis Brin pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (D. Prince Run For Two-point Conversion)
-21.6
TD · Q2 0:57
Davis Brin pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com