Try the model
UCF

UCF 21 at Cincinnati 56

CIN
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:03 · Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds , Amari Johnson returns for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 8 Amari Johnson fumbled, recovered by Cincy
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+35.2Score differential+26.4Blowout margin+12.2Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:30: Jerome Ford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +0.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:30: Jerome Ford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:40: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:33: Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:53: Jerome Ford run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:31UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:26UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:01CIN 4th & 6 at UCF 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:51UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:58CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:45UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:09CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:49UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 49, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33UCF 4th & 1 at CIN 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:05CIN 4th & 25 at CIN 21, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:30UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:03CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 31, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:13UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 15, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:30CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:30CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:40CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:33CIN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:53CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:33UCF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:55CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:41UCF Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:44CIN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:43CIN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:48UCF Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:268% → 8%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
92.0%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.9%
TEAM punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:5592% → 92%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
91.8%
Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+8
91.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
91.6%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
91.5%
Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
91.4%
Jerome Ford run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+6
91.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.7%
Jerome Ford run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:549% → 9%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.2%
Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 5 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
90.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-2
90.9%
Mikey Keene sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
91.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4391% → 93%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
91.1%
Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
91.2%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
91.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
91.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 15
OPP 47
-10
91.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 25
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 25
OWN 43
+16
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+12
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 12 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
91.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 20 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
91.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
90.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds to the UCF 5Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
90.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.7%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:558% → 8%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Amari JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:2593% → 93%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
92.5%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference 12 yards to the CINCINNATI43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
92.8%
Jerome Ford run for 15 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
92.8%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
92.7%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:048% → 8%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
92.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+8
92.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-6
92.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
92.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 51 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for no gain to the Cincy 4 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4093% → 92%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.6%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
92.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr.Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds, downed at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:428% → 8%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
92.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+1
92.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+1
92.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 11
OWN 16
+5
92.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 53 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:1293% → 96%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
92.7%
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+20
92.9%
Jerome Ford run for 20 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
92.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 23 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
96.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:434% → 4%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
95.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
95.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Andrew Osteen punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
98.4%
Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
98.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
99.0%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 15 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
98.7%
Jerome Ford run for 13 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.7%
UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
98.6%
Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.0%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+51
99.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 51 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.3%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
99.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
99.3%
Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
99.4%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
99.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 16 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 27 yds, downed at the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+2
99.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4699% → 100%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
99.3%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
99.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 10 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 8 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+6
99.4%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.4%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.5%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
99.5%
Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Charles McClelland for 8 yds Charles McClelland fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste, recovered by UCF Josh CeliscarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20INT TD
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:490% → 0%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.6%
Amari Johnson run for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+10
99.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
99.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+4
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+18
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 18 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
99.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-74
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted for a TD Coby Bryant return for 74 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 33 yds to the CINCINNATI 42 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
50
+35
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 35 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 2 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
99.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-12
99.8%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Quadric Bullard for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 25
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+48
99.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , Amari Johnson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Ethan Wright for 5 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 2
OWN 31
-9
99.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds , Amari Johnson returns for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 8 Amari Johnson fumbled, recovered by CincySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 4 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (2 Yards) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Ethan Wright run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+5
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 5 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 15
-7
100.0%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+7
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 7 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 1
OWN 15
+18
100.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 52 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 18 yds to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+26
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 26 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
100.0%
Evan Prater run for 6 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+20
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
50
+2
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 4 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
100.0%
Gatewood, Joey pass incomplete to Johnson, Amari, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference 15 yards to the CINCINNATI24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
100.0%
Joey Gatewood run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+15
100.0%
Gatewood, Joey pass incomplete, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference 15 yards to the CINCINNATI6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
100.0%
Damarius Good run for 4 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Mark-Antony Richards run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29END OF GAME
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
100.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 21 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+25
100.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 25 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Ethan Wright run for 3 yds to the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:40
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q2 5:33
Jerome Ford run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 1:30
Jerome Ford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Smith KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com