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SMU

SMU 31 at Navy 24

NAVY
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:37 · Tanner Mordecai punt for 15 yds , Mbiti Williams Jr. returns for no gain to the Navy 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense−29.0Garbage-time factor−11.6Score differential−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:45: Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 37 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:29: Evan Warren kickoff for 60 yds , Bryan Massey return for 95 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:54: Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +9.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:23: Bijan Nichols 50 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +9.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:19: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +25.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:28SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:28NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 40, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:28NAVY 4th & 10 at SMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:26SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:57SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:29NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:16NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 20 at NAVY 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:28SMU 4th & 1 at NAVY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−4.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:26SMU 4th & 14 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:23NAVY 4th & 5 at SMU 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%−1.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:07NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:02NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.2%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:37SMU 4th & 6 at NAVY 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−1.0
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:46NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:28SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:57NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:45NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:29SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:54SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:19SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3284% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.9%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
15.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
15.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
16.3%
Reggie Roberson Jr. 66 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Blake Mazza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
16.3%
Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
16.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+1
16.3%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+16
16.2%
Riley Riethman run for 16 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
16.4%
LAVATAI, Tai rush for 2 yards to the SMU42 (Levelston, DeVe;Robinson, Delan), PENALTY NAVY holding (BANBURY, Pierce) 10 yards to the NAVY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+2
16.3%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+7
16.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 7 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+1
16.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
16.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
17.4%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
17.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
17.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee Rice, broken up by Jamal GlennSimilar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+3
17.6%
Brendan Hall punt for 38 yds , Chance Warren returns for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:3718% → 22%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+10
18.2%
Carlinos Acie run for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
18.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
18.2%
Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
18.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
18.4%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
18.4%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
22.2%
Chance Warren run for 23 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
21.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 10 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
21.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+1
21.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
21.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee Rice, broken up by Johnny HodgesSimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
21.8%
Brendan Hall punt for 36 yds, downed at the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:5123% → 31%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
23.0%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+21
23.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 21 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
24.1%
James Harris II run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
25.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
24.9%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the SMU 37 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai Lavatai for a 1ST down , return for 3 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
30.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 37 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7INT
9 plays · 65 yds · 0:0071% → 74%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
28.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
28.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 12 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
28.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 11 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
27.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
27.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roberson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
26.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 25 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, targeting (Jamal Glenn) to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
26.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass intercepted, touchback. Johnny Hodges return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
32.4%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+6
32.1%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
31.6%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Joshua Pena) to the Navy 18Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+5
31.5%
SMU Penalty, Defensive offside (Mike Williams) to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
31.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden Umbarger NAVY Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
31.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0967% → 56%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
33.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-10
32.5%
Siggers, Tre rush for 3 yards to the SMU43 (WARREN, J'arius), PENALTY SMU holding (Ali, Alan) 10 yards to the SMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+20
43.7%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Clay Cromwell for a loss of 10 yards Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by Navy Diego Fagot , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
36.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
36.1%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
35.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:0463% → 75%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
37.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-3
36.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+24
38.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
35.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roberson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
33.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 7 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+8
35.2%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
35.2%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
35.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
35.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.1%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:3832% → 32%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
33.4%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
32.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+52
32.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 25 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:0969% → 73%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
31.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+19
31.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 19 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
29.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
29.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
50
0
27.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
50
+10
28.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
26.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
26.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 6 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
26.2%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+51
27.5%
Brendan Hall 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
34.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 20 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
36.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
50
-5
37.2%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Pierce Banbury) to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+1
35.5%
Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-8
34.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Mike Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 38
+24
32.6%
Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 24 yds to the SMU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:0269% → 68%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. RobersonSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
31.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
50
0
31.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. RobersonSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+17
32.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 17 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
29.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 14 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
29.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 5 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-9
29.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 14
OPP 19
0
32.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+37
31.6%
Blake Mazza 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 7:0332% → 49%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.0%
James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
32.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
31.1%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
35.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
34.5%
James Harris II run for 6 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
36.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
36.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
35.7%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
36.2%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Gary Wiley for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+1
36.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+5
34.8%
Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
49.0%
Bijan Nichols 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2358% → 55%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.8%
Siggers, Tre rush for 3 yards to the SMU28 (BRENNAN, Kevin), PENALTY SMU holding (Hickman, Branso) 10 yards to the SMU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
42.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
42.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
44.2%
SMU Penalty, tripping (Bryan Massey) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+11
44.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 11 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
44.9%
Brendan Hall punt for 48 yds , Chance Warren returns for 7 yds to the Navy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
48.5%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+4
47.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+1
47.0%
James Harris II run for 1 yd to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
46.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:5257% → 86%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
43.1%
Tre Siggers run for 10 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
41.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 13 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
39.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
39.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
37.7%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-1
37.4%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+2
39.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
14.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:1723% → 19%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
23.8%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
23.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
23.6%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
25.9%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
25.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
18.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete, broken up by Gary WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2089% → 89%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
10.6%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
10.6%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
11.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
11.4%
Tanner Mordecai punt for 15 yds , Mbiti Williams Jr. returns for no gain to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:4619% → 15%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
18.9%
Chance Warren run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
18.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-1
17.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Isaac Ruoss for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 9
OWN 24
-5
14.9%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Pierce Banbury) to the Navy 19Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 14
OWN 19
-3
15.0%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Elijah Chatman and DeVere Levelston for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
6.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+8
6.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
7.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:19
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 22 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-25.1
TD · Q2 1:54
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-9.9
FG · Q3 0:23
Bijan Nichols 50 yd FG GOOD
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com